4 ms·
I think it's still not that frequent. More frequent than I expected before running the numbers, though. Let's say you have a five number interesting sequence st
by 6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
I think it's still not that frequent. More frequent than I expected before running the numbers, though. Let's say you have a five number interesting sequence starting at N. If the highest number that you can draw is M, then at most, you will have M-5 of these possible. Call it M of them. But we probably don't have sequences starting at each N.
Let's say we've got k of these different kinds of interestingnesses, and an average sequence can start at like a quarter of the numbers. Then the number of draws that we would consider interesting are no more than 0.25 * k * M. So the probability of an interesting draw is 0.25 * k * M / (M choose 5). If M = 69 (apparently the PowerBall rules), then it's 0.25 * k * 69 / 11238513 = k / 651508.
The probability of drawing one of these in c draws is 1 - (1 - k / 651508)^c. For a draw to be at least 50-50 (where it becomes more surprising to not have seen one, that's at least -log(2)/log(1 - k/651508) draws.
For 5 interesting sequences, that's about 90k draws. For 10 interesting sequences, that's about 45k draws. For 100 interesting sequences, it's about 4.5k draws. By 100 sequences, I think the number of numbers the sequence is eligible to start at will drop by a ton. Even having a quarter of numbers be eligible start positions with 10 really interesting sequences seems like a tall order.
So I'd guess the number of draws for a "real" answer is between 5k and 100k draws.
Looks like about 50 U.S. states and territories do it 2x / week. I don't know internationally, but let's double that number to 100 places, 2x per week: 200 draws per week.
5k/200-100k/200 = 25 - 500 weeks = 6mo to a decade before this isn't surprising. I'm leaning more toward the decade end.
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 6y agoJust realized it’s six balls drawn not five, so it’s one in about 7M per draw, nearly 10x less likely, so it would take about 10x longer, somewhere between 5 and 90 years before it’s unsurprising. So if the number of draws per week is accurate, this is reasonably suspicious.