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Similar-ish story from Bulgaria back in 2009. 4, 15, 23, 24, 35, 42 were drawn back to back weeks live on TV. They also had a probe but nothing malicious have

by bdz 6y ago

Similar-ish story from Bulgaria back in 2009. 4, 15, 23, 24, 35, 42 were drawn back to back weeks live on TV. They also had a probe but nothing malicious have been found. RNG being RNG. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8259801.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8259801.stm

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
RNG doesn't do that. The probability is infinitesimal. It didn't happen by accident. Its fixed. I can say that with something like 99.99999% confidence. Which doesn't mean "See it could happen!". It means "No its never gonna happen"
- colejohnson66 6y ago
  So because the chances of something happening are so infinitesimally small, it’ll never happen? Airplanes are orders of magnitude safer than cars, yet planes still crash. The “law of large numbers” and all.
  - dave333 6y ago
    But there are simpler explanations, like they broadcast last weeks drawing by mistake, and once broadcast, they can't undo it.
    - dan1234 6y ago
      FTA: > The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order. So, not the same broadcast.
  - bawolff 6y ago
    Yes, if you get small enough (not saying we are neccesarily small enough here). If the probability was something like 1/2^512, and it happened, i think its safe to say that something is fixed.
    - dogsgobork 6y ago
      If you shuffle a deck of cards, the probability of the cards ending up in the order you got is 1 in 8e67, but there it is.
      - bawolff 6y ago
        There's also a very small probability that the atoms inside the cards will spontanously shift so that every single card is an ace of spades
- jcranmer 6y ago
  The probability is roughly one in a million. The problem is that people underestimate how often one-in-a-million chances happen, because they don't think about how many times you actually roll for that one-in-a-million chance. Take the Bulgaria example. How many lotteries are run around the world, such that we'd hear about a rare coincidence like this? Probably about a 1000 a week. So now the one-in-a-million chance is a one-in-a-thousand chance on a weekly basis, or put differently, we should expect to see it happen about every 20 years.
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    Since there are 50 balls and 20 powerballs, its roughly 1 in 20 million. So, do the draw 20 million times to get a particular sequence.
    - sitharus 6y ago
      That's not how probability works. Each draw is an independent event from every previous draw, doing a draw with a 1 in 20 million chance of a given sequence 20 million times will not draw every sequence once.
    - drc500free 6y ago
      37% chance you won't get it, 37% chance you'll get it exactly once.
- quickthrower2 6y ago
  Probability tricks us. I'm not an expert but this is what I think. Follow one lottery, and then watch it this weekend. If the same numbers come up this weekend as last - it is probably fixed. Now follow every lottery, and watch them all over a few years. If the same numbers come up one week as last, it could be fix (maybe higher probability than normal) but it's most likely a fluke.
- GuB-42 6y ago
  I don't know how often the Bulgarian lottery runs, and how many number there are, but I expect the probability of it happening during the life of the lottery would be about 1 in thousands. That's low, but not unbelievably so. We need to consider all the "interesting" things that can happen. It can be sequential numbers like in the article, or anything that strikes you when it happens but didn't think about before. There is still a chance for a mistake. Fraud is unlikely: why would a fraudster do that? It is extremely noticeable and is likely to make the earnings shared.
- chiph 6y ago
  That's how the infinite improbability drive works. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIUIO1ImtJo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIUIO1ImtJo
- samatman 6y ago
  The probability is exactly the same as the probability of any one ticket holder winning the lottery. It's a very simple argument: the draw from the week before is the ticket. The next draw, which is completely independent, either matches the ticket, or it doesn't.
gtrhtrhtrhtr 6y ago
The probability of that happening is much much negligible though (the probability of it happening once is 1/N, the probability of it happening twice is 1/N^2)
- suyula 6y ago
  That only applies if those particular numbers are somehow significant. The chance of picking last week's numbers are the same as picking any other combination.

by bdz 6y ago

JoeAltmaier 6y ago

RNG doesn't do that. The probability is infinitesimal. It didn't happen by accident. Its fixed. I can say that with something like 99.99999% confidence. Which doesn't mean "See it could happen!". It means "No its never gonna happen"

colejohnson66 6y ago
So because the chances of something happening are so infinitesimally small, it’ll never happen? Airplanes are orders of magnitude safer than cars, yet planes still crash. The “law of large numbers” and all.
- dave333 6y ago
  But there are simpler explanations, like they broadcast last weeks drawing by mistake, and once broadcast, they can't undo it.
  - dan1234 6y ago
    FTA: > The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order. So, not the same broadcast.
- bawolff 6y ago
  Yes, if you get small enough (not saying we are neccesarily small enough here). If the probability was something like 1/2^512, and it happened, i think its safe to say that something is fixed.
  - dogsgobork 6y ago
    If you shuffle a deck of cards, the probability of the cards ending up in the order you got is 1 in 8e67, but there it is.
    - bawolff 6y ago
      There's also a very small probability that the atoms inside the cards will spontanously shift so that every single card is an ace of spades
jcranmer 6y ago
The probability is roughly one in a million. The problem is that people underestimate how often one-in-a-million chances happen, because they don't think about how many times you actually roll for that one-in-a-million chance. Take the Bulgaria example. How many lotteries are run around the world, such that we'd hear about a rare coincidence like this? Probably about a 1000 a week. So now the one-in-a-million chance is a one-in-a-thousand chance on a weekly basis, or put differently, we should expect to see it happen about every 20 years.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Since there are 50 balls and 20 powerballs, its roughly 1 in 20 million. So, do the draw 20 million times to get a particular sequence.
  - sitharus 6y ago
    That's not how probability works. Each draw is an independent event from every previous draw, doing a draw with a 1 in 20 million chance of a given sequence 20 million times will not draw every sequence once.
  - drc500free 6y ago
    37% chance you won't get it, 37% chance you'll get it exactly once.
quickthrower2 6y ago
Probability tricks us. I'm not an expert but this is what I think. Follow one lottery, and then watch it this weekend. If the same numbers come up this weekend as last - it is probably fixed. Now follow every lottery, and watch them all over a few years. If the same numbers come up one week as last, it could be fix (maybe higher probability than normal) but it's most likely a fluke.
GuB-42 6y ago
I don't know how often the Bulgarian lottery runs, and how many number there are, but I expect the probability of it happening during the life of the lottery would be about 1 in thousands. That's low, but not unbelievably so. We need to consider all the "interesting" things that can happen. It can be sequential numbers like in the article, or anything that strikes you when it happens but didn't think about before. There is still a chance for a mistake. Fraud is unlikely: why would a fraudster do that? It is extremely noticeable and is likely to make the earnings shared.
chiph 6y ago
That's how the infinite improbability drive works. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIUIO1ImtJo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIUIO1ImtJo
samatman 6y ago
The probability is exactly the same as the probability of any one ticket holder winning the lottery. It's a very simple argument: the draw from the week before is the ticket. The next draw, which is completely independent, either matches the ticket, or it doesn't.

gtrhtrhtrhtr 6y ago

The probability of that happening is much much negligible though (the probability of it happening once is 1/N, the probability of it happening twice is 1/N^2)

suyula 6y ago
That only applies if those particular numbers are somehow significant. The chance of picking last week's numbers are the same as picking any other combination.