3 ms·
Part of it is because I don’t believe in the 4% rule, I think it’s way too optimistic moving forward. My assumption is just that my investments will keep up wi
by deanmoriarty 6y ago
Part of it is because I don’t believe in the 4% rule, I think it’s way too optimistic moving forward.
My assumption is just that my investments will keep up with inflation (0% real return). So, if I live til 100 (unlikely, considering family history I’ll drop dead at around 75 at best) the money I have will need to last me 65 years. That’s about 1.5% withdrawal rate. $4M gives me $60k a year inflation adjusted, which is what I am comfortable with. When you look at it using this math, you can see how $3M is not an obvious retirement number. It could be for some, I’m sure.
Another part is being surrounded by very successful Silicon Valley people: a lot of my friends have net worths around the $10M, so there is a bit of FOMO as well.
Also, I really don’t have a lot of productive personal projects, nor desire to spend my free time programming, I don’t like programming. I envision my retirement volunteering, reading tons of books, enjoying time with my partner and family, and eating street food in SE Asia.
Lastly, while my family is a modest middle class one, I grew up with extremely limited means: I never lacked food or shelter, but my parents never spent any discretionary money on their kids, so I always felt incredibly poor compared to my peer in school and college, who had toys, clothes, fun money for activities. Had to work on my own for even the smallest purchase, to the point where I would have to think very long and hard in my teens to buy a $1 snack. That had profound effects on me, still to this day.
- giantg2 6y ago"...being surrounded by very successful Silicon Valley people: a lot of my friends have net worths around the $10M..." Wow
- thegjp210 6y agoSV is a crazy bubble to be in. Scroll through the very average 'middle class' $3M+ homes in Menlo Park / Palo Alto to get a sense of how distorted things are here
- giantg2 6y agoI thought average was around $1m, but that's even more "wow" at $3m+. I guess I can see how if you get in early, the property can really appreciate. I've seen that to an extent with my house going up 10% in a couple years of ownership.
- airbreather 6y ago4% - "risk free" the long term average is closer to 2.5-3.5%, difference doesn't sound much but the margin over inflation as a percentage makes it huge.
- deanmoriarty 6y agoAn even better reason to advocate for my 1.5% withdrawal rate.