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AI tool can distinguish between a conspiracy theory and a true conspiracy

10 points by ColinWright 6y ago

dandare 6y ago
While I support any effort to neutralize the poisoning of public discourse, I would like to see this tool tested with other major conspiracy theories like Dark Alliance or Iran-Contra.
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 6y ago
  If it can't be successfully back tested against the hundreds of examples of proven conspiracies like iran-contra, then it's effectively ineffective. This seems like a solution looking for a problem, with a bad fit. So it can detect conspiratorial discussions? So what? There's a slippery slope where tools like this could identify people talking about real conspiracies and then shut down those discussions while leaving the garbage alone in a limited hangout.
sam_goody 6y ago
Dunno. Some conspiracy theories are easily categorized, but not all. Some are partly true, or based on fact, some have people actively working to develop them, and some evolve over the years. To take the most popular current example: Trump's claim that the election was stolen. There are two conspiracy theories going on in tandem: The Left claims that the Republicans are creating a false narrative that their friends in the supreme court will accept against the people, and the Right claims that Democrat controlled voting accepted illegal and duplicate votes to create a false narrative that he lost the popular vote. There are elements of truth to each claim. I personally (anecdotally) know of at least one duplicate vote for Biden that would not have been accepted had they voted in person. But I don't pretend that all mail-in votes were false or that the courts are unbiased. Another example is FreeMasonry, which has changed so much and is so widespread that no matter what you say it may have been true in at least one lodge somewhere, and is kooky when appplied to the group as a whole. And what Snowden proved would probably have been treated as a conspiracy theory based on what was known before he leaked his data. That doesn't mean it was less of a conspiracy, and such a tool would have "proven" those investigating the NSA to be wrong or insane, and would repel further queries. Extra terrestrial life is treated very differently by government bodies than by spook hunters and the delusional. Is it a conspiracy? Or does it contain some conspiracies, some theories, some nonsense and some fact? So where does conspiracy begin?
- opwieurposiu 6y ago
  Yes then there are weasel words to deal with. Like on the voter fraud thing, lefty news keeps saying no evidence of "widespread" voter fraud. Where as right news has many small scale specific examples of fraud. Which narrative is true all hinges on the definition of "widespread" which is something that can never be agreed on. This is why I now read both left and right news, because each side only gives you half the story.
mikewarot 6y ago
There is no algorithm for truth. It is my strong opinion that what we have here is a programmatic version of Clever Hans, picking up the subtle cues the authors put in their test data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans
- rhencke 6y ago
  But there _are_ algorithms for detecting human behavior. > Actual conspiracies are deliberately hidden, real-life actions of people working together for their own malign purposes. In contrast, conspiracy theories are collaboratively constructed and develop in the open.
jobigoud 6y ago
Surely one can formulate theories about actual conspiracies. These are not contradictory.

10 points by ColinWright 6y ago

While I support any effort to neutralize the poisoning of public discourse, I would like to see this tool tested with other major conspiracy theories like Dark Alliance or Iran-Contra.

Red_Leaves_Flyy 6y ago
If it can't be successfully back tested against the hundreds of examples of proven conspiracies like iran-contra, then it's effectively ineffective. This seems like a solution looking for a problem, with a bad fit. So it can detect conspiratorial discussions? So what? There's a slippery slope where tools like this could identify people talking about real conspiracies and then shut down those discussions while leaving the garbage alone in a limited hangout.

sam_goody 6y ago

Dunno. Some conspiracy theories are easily categorized, but not all. Some are partly true, or based on fact, some have people actively working to develop them, and some evolve over the years. To take the most popular current example: Trump's claim that the election was stolen. There are two conspiracy theories going on in tandem: The Left claims that the Republicans are creating a false narrative that their friends in the supreme court will accept against the people, and the Right claims that Democrat controlled voting accepted illegal and duplicate votes to create a false narrative that he lost the popular vote. There are elements of truth to each claim. I personally (anecdotally) know of at least one duplicate vote for Biden that would not have been accepted had they voted in person. But I don't pretend that all mail-in votes were false or that the courts are unbiased. Another example is FreeMasonry, which has changed so much and is so widespread that no matter what you say it may have been true in at least one lodge somewhere, and is kooky when appplied to the group as a whole. And what Snowden proved would probably have been treated as a conspiracy theory based on what was known before he leaked his data. That doesn't mean it was less of a conspiracy, and such a tool would have "proven" those investigating the NSA to be wrong or insane, and would repel further queries. Extra terrestrial life is treated very differently by government bodies than by spook hunters and the delusional. Is it a conspiracy? Or does it contain some conspiracies, some theories, some nonsense and some fact? So where does conspiracy begin?

opwieurposiu 6y ago
Yes then there are weasel words to deal with. Like on the voter fraud thing, lefty news keeps saying no evidence of "widespread" voter fraud. Where as right news has many small scale specific examples of fraud. Which narrative is true all hinges on the definition of "widespread" which is something that can never be agreed on. This is why I now read both left and right news, because each side only gives you half the story.

mikewarot 6y ago

There is no algorithm for truth. It is my strong opinion that what we have here is a programmatic version of Clever Hans, picking up the subtle cues the authors put in their test data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans

rhencke 6y ago
But there _are_ algorithms for detecting human behavior. > Actual conspiracies are deliberately hidden, real-life actions of people working together for their own malign purposes. In contrast, conspiracy theories are collaboratively constructed and develop in the open.

jobigoud 6y ago

Surely one can formulate theories about actual conspiracies. These are not contradictory.