5 ms·
The beauty of public markets is that you can make a handsome profit if this is your conviction, you put your money where your mouth is and it turns out to be tr
by chadash 6y ago
The beauty of public markets is that you can make a handsome profit if this is your conviction, you put your money where your mouth is and it turns out to be true.
- opportune 6y agoNot really because the IV and presumably cost to borrow NKLA to short it are both high. Essentially that means the market has already priced in that NKLA has a very high risk of failure. But as long as people keep agreeing to buy the stock for a certain value (even if it's a very small group) it won't crash.
- kjksf 6y agoAt this point you might not be able to short profitably but there was plenty of opportunity even with relatively high borrow costs (~8% currently). You just need to do it at the right time, before the market prices in the obvious fraud. I naked shorted Nikola after the ridiculous spike caused by the initial GM deal. I'm already $100k up on that and I predict I'll make even more as the stock price drops. I also shorted via short term puts a few days ago, when the price spiked a bit on the hopes of new GM deal. I'm betting that the stock price will drop tomorrow due to expiration of a lock up period which will unleash millions of new shares. I'm already up 100% on that and hoping for at least 500% (although if the stock goes up, I might loose 100%; will know by Friday). What you call "market has already priced in" is people like me, who acted decisively and took the risk. The information was there, I (and people like me) didn't have any secret info. But unlike those other people, we had the courage of conviction and risk tolerance to take on high risk / high reward bet.
- cultus 6y ago"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - Keynes I think