4 ms·

Just to be a bit pedantic, these aren’t apples and oranges comparisons. It’s common to measure lives lost in quality-of-life adjusted years, since losing an 85-

Just to be a bit pedantic, these aren’t apples and oranges comparisons. It’s common to measure lives lost in quality-of-life adjusted years, since losing an 85-year old to COVID is a lot different than losing a 20-year old to suicide or due to deferred medical treatment. (The ages are exaggerated, but obviously COVID victims tend to be much older.)

mcguire 6y ago
"Since April, 1.9 million excess years of life have been lost, 13% above historical average. Over the course of the pandemic, we found age and sex contributions to excess YLL have shifted. Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%." April, May, and June had around 10% excess YLL. July and August had 17.5% excess YLL. https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...
- amscanne 6y ago
  And? The parent point was that lockdowns might cause other kinds of death (suicide, deferred medical treatment). All-cause mortality obviously encodes those non-COVID deaths, there is no way to tell them apart. Since the cited study lacks the necessary data (and openly states as much), using it to support any claims about the impact of COVID vs lockdowns is simply begging the question.
  - mcguire 6y ago
    My point was that dismissing COVID because it "only affects the elderly" is not accurate. The data I've seen on suicides is cautiously optimistic in many places. "Nevertheless, a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic. The picture is much less clear in low income countries, where the safety nets available in better resourced settings may be lacking. News reports of police data from Nepal suggest a rise in suicides,12 whereas an analysis of data from Peru suggests the opposite.10" https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352 There is good data saying that people have delayed medical care (including me), but I can't find anything about detailed results. On the other hand, if you are trying to distinguish COVID from the effects of trying to control it, I would like to point out that none of the "lockdown" restrictions have restricted access to medical care. That is either a personal choice or a consequence of overwhelmed facilities.
    - amscanne 6y ago
      I'm not dismissing it, and your quote is not something that I ever said -- who are you quoting?

mcguire 6y ago

"Since April, 1.9 million excess years of life have been lost, 13% above historical average. Over the course of the pandemic, we found age and sex contributions to excess YLL have shifted. Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%." April, May, and June had around 10% excess YLL. July and August had 17.5% excess YLL. https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-years-of-life-lost https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...

amscanne 6y ago
And? The parent point was that lockdowns might cause other kinds of death (suicide, deferred medical treatment). All-cause mortality obviously encodes those non-COVID deaths, there is no way to tell them apart. Since the cited study lacks the necessary data (and openly states as much), using it to support any claims about the impact of COVID vs lockdowns is simply begging the question.
- mcguire 6y ago
  My point was that dismissing COVID because it "only affects the elderly" is not accurate. The data I've seen on suicides is cautiously optimistic in many places. "Nevertheless, a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic. The picture is much less clear in low income countries, where the safety nets available in better resourced settings may be lacking. News reports of police data from Nepal suggest a rise in suicides,12 whereas an analysis of data from Peru suggests the opposite.10" https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352 There is good data saying that people have delayed medical care (including me), but I can't find anything about detailed results. On the other hand, if you are trying to distinguish COVID from the effects of trying to control it, I would like to point out that none of the "lockdown" restrictions have restricted access to medical care. That is either a personal choice or a consequence of overwhelmed facilities.
  - amscanne 6y ago
    I'm not dismissing it, and your quote is not something that I ever said -- who are you quoting?