I don’t know of any country on that list that hasn’t been mitigating infections in some way after the initial surge, so it’s no surprise the spike came down. Y

I don’t know of any country on that list that hasn’t been mitigating infections in some way after the initial surge, so it’s no surprise the spike came down. You would also expect to get no (average) excess mortality for the year if you just killed off the frail earlier than normal. This is not the case, excess mortality just returned to normal levels. You would need either a spike in the other direction or a step change down to fit with your theory. You can track the yearly excess mortality data here for a few countries. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking...