5 ms·

The initial lockdowns early this year worked quite well...which is why we are able to withstand the subsequent waves because the healthcare systems weren't over

by nojito 6y ago

The initial lockdowns early this year worked quite well...which is why we are able to withstand the subsequent waves because the healthcare systems weren't overwhelmed and we could focus on getting proper clinical treatments created. I can't find any instance of the scientific community encouraging permanent lockdowns.

fastball 6y ago
Do you have evidence for that? The stats I've seen seem to indicate that COVID has behaved (in terms of waning) more seasonally than in response to lockdowns. For example Sweden, who didn't have lockdowns anything like what we've seen in other countries, have a curve[1] that tapered off too. At deaths per capita, they're lower than UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and many more. [1] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
- thebruce87m 6y ago
  https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ You can see normal flu seasons and the out-of-season huge spike. Then you can see subsequent bumps on a per-country basis. Some countries had multiple spikes and lockdowns etc.
  - fastball 6y ago
    Yes, a huge spike which quickly tapers off. You can't kill the most vulnerable in the population multiple times in a year. People don't get vulnerable that quickly. These charts tell exactly the story I'm telling. The peaks and troughs appear at the same time for countries with strict lockdowns as for those with less strict / non-existent lockdowns.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      The huge spike happens and people adjust. They take less risks. Government mandates step in, businesses make decisions to close. This isn't going to correlate to one thing. The seasonal impact is real, but that doesn't mean lockdowns don't work.
    - thebruce87m 6y ago
      I don’t know of any country on that list that hasn’t been mitigating infections in some way after the initial surge, so it’s no surprise the spike came down. You would also expect to get no (average) excess mortality for the year if you just killed off the frail earlier than normal. This is not the case, excess mortality just returned to normal levels. You would need either a spike in the other direction or a step change down to fit with your theory. You can track the yearly excess mortality data here for a few countries. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking...
- _Microft 6y ago
  > At deaths per capita, they [ = Sweden] [a]re lower than UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and many more. Which is not difficult because you picked the worst of the worst to compare them with. Compare them with other nordic countries like Norway or especially Finland and Sweden suddenly looks like a complete failure.
- nojito 6y ago
  Yes. The studies will be published in the coming months. Keep an eye out.
- WildParser 6y ago
  Is it seasonal because of natural yearly weather seasons, or is it because of the growth dynamics?! Most curves look a lot like an explosion that burns out locally too fast to sustain a continuous fire. This could lead to some kind of seasonal dynamics without external factors. One exception is maybe Argentina. Since the beginning it was more like a continuous burning fire - until they stopped. What did they do?

by nojito 6y ago

fastball 6y ago

Do you have evidence for that? The stats I've seen seem to indicate that COVID has behaved (in terms of waning) more seasonally than in response to lockdowns. For example Sweden, who didn't have lockdowns anything like what we've seen in other countries, have a curve[1] that tapered off too. At deaths per capita, they're lower than UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and many more. [1] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

thebruce87m 6y ago
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ You can see normal flu seasons and the out-of-season huge spike. Then you can see subsequent bumps on a per-country basis. Some countries had multiple spikes and lockdowns etc.
- fastball 6y ago
  Yes, a huge spike which quickly tapers off. You can't kill the most vulnerable in the population multiple times in a year. People don't get vulnerable that quickly. These charts tell exactly the story I'm telling. The peaks and troughs appear at the same time for countries with strict lockdowns as for those with less strict / non-existent lockdowns.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    The huge spike happens and people adjust. They take less risks. Government mandates step in, businesses make decisions to close. This isn't going to correlate to one thing. The seasonal impact is real, but that doesn't mean lockdowns don't work.
  - thebruce87m 6y ago
    I don’t know of any country on that list that hasn’t been mitigating infections in some way after the initial surge, so it’s no surprise the spike came down. You would also expect to get no (average) excess mortality for the year if you just killed off the frail earlier than normal. This is not the case, excess mortality just returned to normal levels. You would need either a spike in the other direction or a step change down to fit with your theory. You can track the yearly excess mortality data here for a few countries. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking...
_Microft 6y ago
> At deaths per capita, they [ = Sweden] [a]re lower than UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and many more. Which is not difficult because you picked the worst of the worst to compare them with. Compare them with other nordic countries like Norway or especially Finland and Sweden suddenly looks like a complete failure.
nojito 6y ago
Yes. The studies will be published in the coming months. Keep an eye out.
WildParser 6y ago
Is it seasonal because of natural yearly weather seasons, or is it because of the growth dynamics?! Most curves look a lot like an explosion that burns out locally too fast to sustain a continuous fire. This could lead to some kind of seasonal dynamics without external factors. One exception is maybe Argentina. Since the beginning it was more like a continuous burning fire - until they stopped. What did they do?