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> as long as people have access to land and seeds we can eat well. and > we are looking at a future with at best greatly reduced food variety for the vast maj

> as long as people have access to land and seeds we can eat well. and > we are looking at a future with at best greatly reduced food variety for the vast majority of the population, and at worst outright starvation for large portions of our population. are not mutually exclusive statements. As global warming progresses, a lot of the seeds that we are used to being able to grow aren't going to grow anymore, and the land that we used to grow them on will be turning into a desert. Within 50 years there's going to be mass migrations and tremendous demand for the land that is still viable for growing crops. This is a situation where the rich will be able to survive, while the poor suffer. GMO definitely isn't the only solution, and it may not even be the best one but it is one field that we need to deeply investigate and try out if we want our species to survive with a similar standard of living to what we enjoy today.

carapace 6y ago
> As global warming progresses, a lot of the seeds that we are used to being able to grow aren't going to grow anymore, and the land that we used to grow them on will be turning into a desert. We can find or develop new drought- and heat-tolerant varieties, like the tepary bean (Phaseolus acutifolius)[1]. More importantly, we can alter the climate directly though our patterns of agriculture and horticulture.[2][3] > Within 50 years there's going to be mass migrations and tremendous demand for the land that is still viable for growing crops. FWIW, there's a very interesting talk about that[4] and one of the take-aways is that we may well see e.g. Bangladesh unilaterally pursuing geoengineering solutions, not waiting for international consensus. > GMO definitely isn't the only solution, and it may not even be the best one but it is one field that we need to deeply investigate and try out if we want our species to survive with a similar standard of living to what we enjoy today. I'm not actually against genetic engineering, I just think we should wait a few hundred years, until we have a better idea of how life works -OR- some extra-terrestrial biospheres in which to experiment without risking Earth at all. In the meantime, I believe we already have all the biological diversity we need to tackle the coming challenges already, we just have to recognize and use it. In any event, the OP is BS propaganda, not science, eh? [1] "Phaseolus acutifolius, or the Tepary bean, is a legume native to the southwestern United States and Mexico and has been grown there by the native peoples since pre-Columbian times. It is more drought-resistant than the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and is grown in desert and semi-desert conditions" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phaseolus_acutifolius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phaseolus_acutifolius [2] "Greening the Desert II" > This half hour video documents the ongoing work of Permaculture Gurus, Geoff and Nadia Lawton, in the Dead Sea Valley. It begins with the famous original 'Greening the Desert' five minute video clip, and then continues into Part II, a 2009 update to the 2001 original. > When there’s no soil, no water, no shade, and where the sun beats down on you to the tune of over 50°C (122°F), the word ‘poverty’ begins to take on a whole new meaning. It is distinct and surreal. It’s a land of dust, flies, intense heat and almost complete dependency on supply lines outside of ones control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VGHoxpYlWQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VGHoxpYlWQ [3] "Regreening the desert with John D. Liu" | VPRO Documentary | 2012 > Liu filmed the Loess-plateau in China. He witnessed a local population who turned an area of almost the same size as The Netherlands from a dry, exhausted wasteland into one green oasis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDgDWbQtlKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDgDWbQtlKI [4] Dr. Gwynne Dyer – Geopolitics in a Hotter World – UBC Talk Transcribed (Sept. 2010) https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geopolitics-in-a-hotter-world-ubc-talk-transcribed-sept-2010/ https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geo... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY > I talked–actually, the head of the Bangladesh Institute of Strategic Studies about this (you didn’t even know that existed, did you?). Well, there is one, it’s quite serious–run by a General, bright guy. I said, “have you heard about geoengineering?” and he smiled–seraphically–and he said, “Mmm. Yes. Your question?” > And I asked the question, “Do you think that this is something the Bangladesh government might want to do a little bit, before, let’s say, the US government or the Chinese government?” > He said, “yes it has crossed our minds.”–and then he stopped talking. There's a lot of other interesting information in that talk.
- NathanKP 6y ago
  I don't think we are disagreeing here, I'm just saying that I see a future where poor people have to rely on tepary beans to survive as pretty dark. We are talking about a wild crop variety that has lower yields, so that could absolutely mean starvation for many at our current population level. There is a lot of inefficient wiggle room in the system, though. Like if we stopped eating so much meat then maybe we could get by on tepary beans if we need to because we wouldn't need to grow so much animal feed. But it would still be a massive decrease in the quality of our diets. I think geoengineering is something we are going to have to do as well, but I worry that the cost and effort involved will make it into something that benefits only the richest humans. Maybe we successfully geoengineer some areas into ideal crop growing conditions again, but that likely leaves the vast majority of humans still suffering the effects of climate change and eating tepary beans, while a few lucky (and likely wealthy) people in geoengineered areas can live with the same standards that we do today.

carapace 6y ago

> As global warming progresses, a lot of the seeds that we are used to being able to grow aren't going to grow anymore, and the land that we used to grow them on will be turning into a desert. We can find or develop new drought- and heat-tolerant varieties, like the tepary bean (Phaseolus acutifolius)[1]. More importantly, we can alter the climate directly though our patterns of agriculture and horticulture.[2][3] > Within 50 years there's going to be mass migrations and tremendous demand for the land that is still viable for growing crops. FWIW, there's a very interesting talk about that[4] and one of the take-aways is that we may well see e.g. Bangladesh unilaterally pursuing geoengineering solutions, not waiting for international consensus. > GMO definitely isn't the only solution, and it may not even be the best one but it is one field that we need to deeply investigate and try out if we want our species to survive with a similar standard of living to what we enjoy today. I'm not actually against genetic engineering, I just think we should wait a few hundred years, until we have a better idea of how life works -OR- some extra-terrestrial biospheres in which to experiment without risking Earth at all. In the meantime, I believe we already have all the biological diversity we need to tackle the coming challenges already, we just have to recognize and use it. In any event, the OP is BS propaganda, not science, eh? [1] "Phaseolus acutifolius, or the Tepary bean, is a legume native to the southwestern United States and Mexico and has been grown there by the native peoples since pre-Columbian times. It is more drought-resistant than the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and is grown in desert and semi-desert conditions" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phaseolus_acutifolius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phaseolus_acutifolius [2] "Greening the Desert II" > This half hour video documents the ongoing work of Permaculture Gurus, Geoff and Nadia Lawton, in the Dead Sea Valley. It begins with the famous original 'Greening the Desert' five minute video clip, and then continues into Part II, a 2009 update to the 2001 original. > When there’s no soil, no water, no shade, and where the sun beats down on you to the tune of over 50°C (122°F), the word ‘poverty’ begins to take on a whole new meaning. It is distinct and surreal. It’s a land of dust, flies, intense heat and almost complete dependency on supply lines outside of ones control. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VGHoxpYlWQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VGHoxpYlWQ [3] "Regreening the desert with John D. Liu" | VPRO Documentary | 2012 > Liu filmed the Loess-plateau in China. He witnessed a local population who turned an area of almost the same size as The Netherlands from a dry, exhausted wasteland into one green oasis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDgDWbQtlKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDgDWbQtlKI [4] Dr. Gwynne Dyer – Geopolitics in a Hotter World – UBC Talk Transcribed (Sept. 2010) https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geopolitics-in-a-hotter-world-ubc-talk-transcribed-sept-2010/ https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geo... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY > I talked–actually, the head of the Bangladesh Institute of Strategic Studies about this (you didn’t even know that existed, did you?). Well, there is one, it’s quite serious–run by a General, bright guy. I said, “have you heard about geoengineering?” and he smiled–seraphically–and he said, “Mmm. Yes. Your question?” > And I asked the question, “Do you think that this is something the Bangladesh government might want to do a little bit, before, let’s say, the US government or the Chinese government?” > He said, “yes it has crossed our minds.”–and then he stopped talking. There's a lot of other interesting information in that talk.

NathanKP 6y ago
I don't think we are disagreeing here, I'm just saying that I see a future where poor people have to rely on tepary beans to survive as pretty dark. We are talking about a wild crop variety that has lower yields, so that could absolutely mean starvation for many at our current population level. There is a lot of inefficient wiggle room in the system, though. Like if we stopped eating so much meat then maybe we could get by on tepary beans if we need to because we wouldn't need to grow so much animal feed. But it would still be a massive decrease in the quality of our diets. I think geoengineering is something we are going to have to do as well, but I worry that the cost and effort involved will make it into something that benefits only the richest humans. Maybe we successfully geoengineer some areas into ideal crop growing conditions again, but that likely leaves the vast majority of humans still suffering the effects of climate change and eating tepary beans, while a few lucky (and likely wealthy) people in geoengineered areas can live with the same standards that we do today.