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Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record
- mobilio 6y agoSound like a new bubble?
- globular-toast 6y agoLooks like it won't break the $20k threshold again. Back down it goes... I knew this was about to happen again when, just like last time, I heard regular "non-techy" people talk about it at work.
- shelune 6y agoI know it's gonna hit 20k at some point since I haven't seen media talking about it yet. Not enough FOMO
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- domatic1 6y agoYou can short it and still make money. Go ahead.
- demadog 6y agoThat is one thing I love about the finance industry vs other industries. Someone who thinks they can predict the future or at least have a strong opinion can go ahead and put their money on the line rather than just comment on a thread! It’s actually beautiful.
- globular-toast 6y agoNot necessarily. That person might have no liquid assets at the time, or might not have the means to short a stock, for example. Pretty weird to assume that everyone has funds to move around at a moment's notice.
- redisman 6y agoI love the crypto oracles who can sense what direction various coins are "supposed" to head to next.
- my_usernam3 6y agoOh me too, thats been my favorite part. Everyone has their own theory about the future of bitcoin, but those that are certain of said future always give me a good chuckle.
- kainaloo 6y agoThis is probabyl not going to age well. It's very likely that BTC will break 30k in Q1 2021.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago"Very likely" because of what? What is your reasoning?
- paulpauper 6y agoIt seems like a lot until you consider that it has been surpassed by many other investments in terms of gains such as Tesla, Paypal, Palantir stock and others. The days of Bitcoin going up 10-50x in a year are over, but still interesting to see what happens next. I think increasing regulation and the use of blacklists and 'coin tainting' erode whatever use bitcoin has though, as there will be no fungibility. This makes bitcoin worse than even cash in terms of being usable and censorship-resistant.
- TuringNYC 6y agoGiven that BTC isnt based on any NPV or earnings multiple or industrial use value but is rather based on scarcity value, I dont see why gaining 10-50x returns are any more or less likely than, say, losing 90% of the value. Could anyone provide a more methodical way of thinking about this?
- ISL 6y agoNot suggesting that this is correct in this case (edit: indeed, one can argue that it is not), but if you think of it as a store of value, whenever the USD money supply is increased (or people think it might be in the future), one might expect the fixed-quantity BTC to be exchangeable for more USD. See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 . Relative to the early days of Bitcoin, the room to fluctuate upward is much smaller than the room to fluctuate downward. Bitcoin's market cap is ~$200B, while M1 is ~$6000B. Back in the day, Bitcoin's market cap was a few million dollars or less. That said, BTC now has a powerful brand in the eyes of many possible buyers/holders, which makes a retreat all the way to zero far less likely. I suspect that the only things that could kill BTC completely these days are a compromise of the hash algorithm, a coordinated effort against it by a consortium of governments that must include the US, or a devastating 51% attack by a consortium of miners. The third is perhaps least-likely, as the miners would stand to lose a lot if BTC imploded.
- TuringNYC 6y agoThanks! This is a great explanation. I imagine expending it from M1 to also include other major countries' money supply would be a good next step in the analysis. Curious if you could recommend any good read on BTC upside potential given this framework -- for example, right now the M1:BTC ratio is 1:30, but what factors/behaviours would dictate that ratio to change? or is the idea that the ratio keeps constant with more inflation and thus pushes BTC higher?
- qz2 6y agoI still only have $11 of BTC :(
- anotheraccount9 6y agoCryptocurrency is still a misunderstood concept for many ppl in the financial world. As use and integration increases, btc will likely stabilise. Meanwhile, we get interesting volatility.
- arcticbull 6y agoVolatility is its principal feature in the financial world.
- crispyambulance 6y agoYeah, but does that necessarily HAVE TO apply to "currency"?
- arcticbull 6y agoNot in my opinion haha but it’s not really a currency.
- hahaxdxd123 6y agoLike what? What economic value do cryptocurrencies provide over our traditional banking system? - being deflationary is not a feature, it's a bug. An inflationary currency incentivises you to invest it, otherwise you lose real purchasing power. With a deflationary currency, you can just stuff it anywhere and see gains. You steal from tomorrow. As the material wealth of the world increases, our money supply should increase to match. AFAIK there isn't any popular crypto that can easily adjust how many tokens are mined each year. - almost every crypto's transaction throughput is ~4 orders of magnitude below what Amex/Mastercard/Visa can process. - most of the ease of using crypto is only because it bypasses AML/KYC laws. Venmo and Zelle would be far more convenient otherwise. I can't see it as anything other than speculation.
- mrlala 6y ago>An inflationary currency incentivises you to invest it Still not convinced that is a good thing. It perpetuates a cycle that rewards people who already have excess income to "invest" and keep making more money. Meanwhile those without any significant income to invest are left even further in the dust. I'm not arguing for crypto at all here- just commenting specifically on that inflationary point.
- lawn 6y agoWhile the market is likely driven by fomo and manipulation, cryptocurrencies do have valuable use-cases. See this book[0] for a list of some and an explanation of how Bitcoin works. [0]: https://whycryptocurrencies.com/ https://whycryptocurrencies.com/
- arcticbull 6y agoThere is not a single use case better solved by cryptocurrencies or blockchain than by a classical solution. Name one, I’ll wait. When there is I’ll eat my, err, hat.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6y agoThe permissionless nature does enable some use cases where the overhead associated with the classical solutions makes them impractical. With Bitcoin, anyone can start a cash-to-bitcoin/bitcoin-to-cash office. All you need is a phone with Internet. Could Western Union solve the same problem? In theory, yes, in practice, the overhead cost of joining the network means the guy with a phone in some remote village isn't going to do it. This is obviously mostly relevant where the classic solutions aren't already ubiquitous. Want to wire money from Germany to France? Just use SEPA. Want to wire money from Germany to the US? You're probably better off with some traditional money transfer service like TransferWise or (for bigger amounts) a Forex/brokerage account. Want to "wire" money from a remote village in Africa to a remote village in Asia? That's where you might benefit from your neighbor having set up a physical crypto exchange.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- jasonlaramburu 6y agoThe remote African Village use case is already solved by mobile money solutions like M-Pesa, which are cheap and easy to use via SMS or low-end feature phones. The cost of buying a smartphone with data plan to use a BTC wallet is prohibitively expensive for most people in developing countries.
- modeless 6y agoIt missed breaking the all time high on most exchanges, such as Coinbase Pro. There the all time high from 2017 was $19,892 and the highest price so far today was $19,873. If it breaks over $20k I expect a new wave of publicity that will drive the price higher, as has happened in the past. Now it is far more accessible as an impulse buy with PayPal, Robinhood, Cash app, etc offering instant purchases.
- joeseppy 6y agoLook at the bitcoin CME futures. The all time open was 20650, and went straight down from there. Closing over that is key for sustained upside
- seibelj 6y agoInteresting to read comments back during the bear. Here is a post from December 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18640755 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18640755
- jayd16 6y agoCan someone explain why BTC going from 13k to 20k in a month isn't the yearly pump and dump?
- seibelj 6y agoI posted this in the other thread from today that briefly hit the front page: Bitcoin is a social phenomena - no government or company backs it. The only reason it has value is if people value it. Bitcoin promoters have convinced people it's a store of value, like gold except digital. As the Cult of Bitcoin spreads, it doesn't take that many new enthusiasts to push the price up, as unlike literally all other commodities on earth, the supply of bitcoin is truly constrained and there cannot be anymore made in response to demand above the normal rate of inflation. This time, big money, institutions, and the very rich are coming in addition to the widespread purchase by retail. The price is going to rise a lot.
- arcticbull 6y agoBitcoin is a Bitfinex and Tether phenomenon. Since the Tether article was posted a few weeks ago another $2B fake dollars have been generated and used to buy Bitcoin. This absolutely and completely dwarfs the pennies Square and PayPal threw into the wishing well.
- seibelj 6y agoTether is a cornerstone of the crypto industry. You can post some random blog posts here but Tether is actually used by trading firms, and can be minted and redeemed through their portal here https://app.tether.to/app/login https://app.tether.to/app/login The Tether FUD is so dumb, but it's the last straw being grasped by perma-bears.
- arcticbull 6y agolol go on redeem some. If you actually read their terms of service it specifically says tethers do not grant you any claim on their reserves. I’ve no doubt they’re used by exchanges that don’t want to comply with the law and follow AML/KYC. That’s the point. Don’t carry water for these scammers they literally don’t have a bank account and admitted in court [1] much of their reserves are IOUs and crypto. Audit or gtfo (to tether inc not you). [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theblockcrypto.com/amp/daily/24139/tether-admits-in-court-to-investing-some-of-its-reserves-in-bitcoin https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theblockcrypto.com/amp/dail...
- 1-6 6y agoI remember a guy who boasted putting his entire life savings into Bitcoin during a crypto meetup. I wonder how he's doing.
- rvense 6y agoIt's always fun when you meet new techy people and you get comfortable enough to share your "I didn't get rich" Bitcoin stories: "I sold at $600 because it seemed like a lot at the time", "I bought a pizza with the ones I CPU mined", or "I had one but I forgot to get the key off the hard drive when I recycled my desktop" and everyone tries to laugh it off and stare into their drinks.
- crumbshot 6y agoBitcoin and other compute-intensive cryptocurrencies should be banned or taxed so heavily that it's financially infeasible to use them. The amount of energy being wasted (reportedly more than seven nuclear power plants worth) on what is essentially an unproductive project is quite absurd. In a world where we should all be increasingly concerned about the looming climate catastrophe, it's wholly irresponsible for Bitcoin to exist other than as an academic curiosity. Also I reckon if recreational drugs were legalised, there would be no real reason to use Bitcoin at all. I mean what would be left except for just buying into the pyramid scheme, and ransomware payments?
- WealthVsSurvive 6y agoIt's a plutocrat wealth store during uncertainty, like gold, but it has no intrinsic value. That's it, that's its only purpose.
- colejohnson66 6y agoPreface: Bitcoin is a neat idea (decentralized currency), but it’s not practical at scale. Reply: To be fair, the US’ currency has no intrinsic value either. Prior to the removal of the gold standard, your $20 bill was backed by exactly $20 worth of gold in some vault. Mid-1970s, the gold standard was stopped and the US’ currency became “fiat”; it only has value because the US says it does. Should the US’ economy collapse, the bills become literally worthless. It’s not exactly the same, but Bitcoin is essentially fiat money as its only value is what people say it is (somewhat similar to the stock market). So I think it’s an apt comparison.
- alwillis 6y agoIt’s not exactly the same, but Bitcoin is essentially fiat money as its only value is what people say it is (somewhat similar to the stock market). So I think it’s an apt comparison. Absolutely not. There's nothing "fiat" about Bitcoin. Fiat means by decree—there's no Bitcoin nation or organization that decreed that Bitcoin is valuable. There's no authority that says what a Bitcoin is worth; the market decides. Bitcoin, like gold, is hard money. https://tradesmithdaily.com/educational/bitcoin-is-the-purest-form-of-hard-money-ever-created-2/ https://tradesmithdaily.com/educational/bitcoin-is-the-pures... https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/the-real-vision-crypto-story-understand-the-future-of-everything https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos... This is perhaps the best podcast for Bitcoin skeptics: "Bitcoin Common Misconceptions w/ Robert Breedlove"—https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/btc001-bitcoin-common-misconceptions-w-robert-breedlove/id928933489?i=1000500156216 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/btc001-bitcoin-common-...
- disown 6y agoSeems like everything is hitting all-time highs. Housing prices, stock market, bitcoin. If you have a lot of assets, it's honestly the best time. Especially if you owned a lot of tech stocks the past decade. If covid and the worldwide economic disruption can't put a dent in asset prices, then what will happen when the pandemic passes and the economy recovers in the next few years? I used to laugh when people said bezos or elon might be the first trillionaire in a few years, but now I think it's possible. Just have to cross your fingers and hope the good times continue.
- rvense 6y ago> Just have to cross your fingers and hope the good times continue. If you've got time for it between working two jobs and driving Uber to make rent, of course.
- milkytron 6y ago> If covid and the worldwide economic disruption can't put a dent in asset prices, then what will happen when the pandemic passes and the economy recovers in the next few years? Pure speculation, and I am not an economist, but I'd imagine that those with wealth will acquire more wealth. And those without wealth will encounter more difficult means to acquiring wealth. The last time the housing market crashed, investors bought a lot of the single family homes to use as wealth storage and rent them out. If housing prices go down or stabilize (we'll see what happens after forbearance periods), this will most certainly happen again, consolidating more wealth to the top while market rates for rent steadily climb. Housing shortages are high, and growing in the US. Other assets like stocks will likely increase as they have done, but entering into this market will be more difficult as consumers are spending more of their income on necessities (shelter, cars in the US, etc). All of which are becoming more expensive, and funnily enough, these assets aren't included in the Consumer Price Index, which is meant to measure inflation. Basically, I just see this as expediting wealth consolidation. Times will be more difficult for a lot of people for a long time. Strong cultural shifts and policy changes will likely be needed to avoid furthering the divide of the wealth gap. Neither of which is easy.
- moistly 6y ago
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- socrates1998 6y agoWould be great to short-sell right now, but that's almost impossible to do the last I checked.
- seibelj 6y agoYou can short crypto at many places, with 100x leverage. See Poloniex, Binance, Bitmex, etc.
- safog 6y agoUsed to be the case in 2017, but no longer true. You're more than welcome to get burned if you short into a hyped bull market.
- Scott_Sanderson 6y agoIt's one thing to piss on btc on hacker news but would you really put up money shorting it? There are multiple ways to do so.
- leet_thow 6y agoI have always been a bitcoin skeptic, but after reading the recent papers by Ark Invest (see ARKK etf) and listening to their CEO Cathie Wood I started adding it to my portfolio.
- milkytron 6y agoWhat points were made that changed your mind?
- aminozuur 6y agoUnpopular opinion: Cathie Wood seems to buy into whatever hype is currently trending. She does not seem to have a deep understanding as to why some of her holdings will outperform. However, she's invested in hundreds of companies, and it would be nearly impossible to do so at that point.
- flignats 6y agoBeen waiting a couple years for crypto to be a topic on HN again. People still don't get it. I learned a new term used on HN yesterday, 'bikeshedding'. It perfectly applies to bitcoin/blockchain.
- fwr 6y agoHow?
- flignats 6y agoHow is there bikeshedding? Almost all arguments people make against bitcoin are pointless. I.e. the fees being high, transaction time being low, transactions per second, ect Blockchain is a disruptive technology on the same level as the invention of the Internet. It is the first global, transparent, immutable ledger. We are only just beginning discovery on what we can do/improve from here.
- kainaloo 6y agoTrue, people debate on these little details and none of them matter, they will be solved one way or another. It's guaranteed that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. Most people don't understand that cryptos in their current form is just the base and when more and more money start building on top of it that's when we will see the real internet 3.0 and all the amazing things you can do with it. It takes some imagination to see what's possible.
- SubiculumCode 6y agoBitcoin is speculative, and will die a speculative death. Until it is backed by something e.g. mandatory taxation like the USD, then its value is only as good as the next financial misinformation campaign. and here comes the btc boys.
- seibelj 6y agoI love crypto post on HN - never seen more grayed out comments in my life!
- nikolay 6y agoYou should! This is not Reddit - we are all professionals here and we know what Bitcoin is and what it isn't!
- m-i-l 6y agoWould be interesting to see how the comments change colour over time. A while back, when I used to read and reply to a few comments on the topic, I reckoned there was a bit of a pattern to voting - non-believer comments would turn light gray almost instantly, but then get well into the black over time, like there was a small but very quick and fanatical group on the believer side trying to eliminate any dissent, but a much larger and slower group of non-believers who reign out in the long term. That was a while ago, so I don't know if it is the same now. These days I treat blockchain and cryptocurrencies like politics and religion - best not talk about them in polite company.
- nikolay 6y agoIt happens every year around this time. People need to separate the stupid from their money. I cannot imagine a smart person buying this stinky piece at these prices! At $6K it was still overpriced!
- bilater 6y agoHacker news tech bros pissing on Bitcoin with smart sounding but really just dumb ass e=mc2 arguments. Then they wonder why they have to answer to that PM or idiot CEO.
- the_only_law 6y agoWait I thought it was the tech bros shilling btc, I can't keep up anymore.
- bilater 6y agoIt's a bit of this: https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9c9b3a1-8bd4-49d0-8339-b8434ca1b398_1600x1505.png https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q...
- the_only_law 6y agoAh ok, reminds me of the infamous Dropbox comment here.
- johnyzee 6y agoBitcoin enthusiasm is inversely correlated with faith in the financial system that be. Hacker News is founded, and largely frequented, by (would be) entrepreneurs, whose model of success is linking up with big financial players who make up the current system. "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair Kind of sad to see a crowd who supposedly values information technology and vision, as means to transform society (make the world a better place!) get so ideologically bent out of shape about a technical project - and one so undeniably incredible as bitcoin. I mean, if people find it dumb or useless, that's one thing, we hear that about projects all the time, but with bitcoin people here get downright nasty with the comments, take moral stands and so on.
- hnarn 6y agoIt was a bubble last time, and it’s a bubble this time. BTC or any other crypto currency for that matter is nowhere near passing the grandma test, and until it does it will be nothing but speculative novelty equity for the already baptized and a decent alternative for darknet drug dealers. Ironically, the ridiculous volatility fueled by baseless speculation from people who have no idea what they’re doing is one of the main reasons why crypto currency is not being adopted, because no merchant with any serious stake takes a currency seriously that can change by tens of percent in any direction between it entering and leaving your account. Personally I thought crypto currency was an interesting idea when I first heard of it, but now I’m completely fatigued. The eternal September has come and gone and the credibility of the whole endeavour is a guilt-by-association dumpster fire.