3 ms·

Hurray for a vaccine that is > 90% effective on a disease that for those who get it have a > 99% survival rate. Bring on the new overlords.

by whb07 6y ago

nkjoep 6y ago
I guess survival rate means a different thing from side effects. I would be still cautious with that statement and not underestimate it.
- macintux 6y ago
  Not to mention the side effect of the collapse of our healthcare system.
  - whb07 6y ago
    I agree, by having a shutdown and mandatory at-home confinements and fear mongering, you have people not attending hospitals and the like for routine and checkups for more serious diseases.
- whb07 6y ago
  Side effects of shutdowns include: * depression * suicide * poverty -> famine and disease * missed education * dependency on gov * freedoms given up and transferred to gov I also agree that there are other side effects, just like every disease.
  - marvin 6y ago
    Soooooo... If you were somewhat pragmatic, you'd acknowledge that a lot of people, maybe even a majority, actually support various social distancing measures and shutdowns. These measures certainly have a negative economic impact, irrespective of whether a negative economic impact would happen just due to the voluntary measures of these people. And regardless, wouldn't it be a net gain to deploy a vaccine? It would certainly be more effective at placating this group of people than implying they're all idiots. It would be a huge benefit towards resuming a relatively normal society, regardless of whether they're right or whether they're somehow all just a bunch of nervous morons. So why would you criticise it?
    - whb07 6y ago
      I agree we should have a vaccine, I do not agree with mandatory shutdowns and all the negative down stream side effects which are PROVEN to be larger than the disease itself.
      - abootstrapper 6y ago
        Gonna need a citation on that all caps “proven.”
        hedora 6y ago
        https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
  - Emphere 6y ago
    Countries that didn't enforce strict lockdowns do worse economically https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/to-save-the-economy-save-people-first https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/to-save-the-...
learc83 6y ago
Those 2 numbers aren’t comparable. A 1% death rate with a disease as contagious as COVID means more than 50 million dead globally at some point (not everyone will get it but the majority will eventually). Near universal vaccination with a vaccine that is 95% effective at preventing severe cases means saving 47.5 million lives in that scenario. Despite the disease having a 99% survival rate. If the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity (or just reduces your ability to pass it on), it could save more, and wouldn’t even require universal vaccination to do so. Furthermore, people are staying home voluntarily in many places. An effective vaccine will alleviate their fears and help the economy. In a way that telling people not to worry about a <1% chance or death will not.
- whb07 6y ago
  That is not quite the case as the you're double counting quite a number of people. set A = The set of all people who die from covid set B = The set of people who were going to die that year from cancer, heart, age etc Nearly all of set A fits inside set B. For evidence see either CDC or even the Italian health ministry data set they even published as far back as April 2020 where the median age of death was 79 and 50% had 3+ other diseases and sub 1% had no other diseases.
  - learc83 6y ago
    1. The median age of death at 79, and 50% of people have 3+ diseases doesn't imply that "Nearly all of the people who die from COVID had a life expectancy of < 1 year" as you say. Those 3+ diseases you mention include diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity etc... Diseases that people commonly live with for decades. The median remaining lifespan of a person who dies of COVID has been estimated to be around 12 years [1,2]. 2. Lets say you are correct and 90% of people who die of COVID would have died within 1 year. And let's assume that you have some magic PR method that will convince 100% of the population that this is true. That means that COVID is still more deadly than the Flu, and some large percentage of people will still choose to remain home, stop traveling, stop eating out etc... These people will continue to damage the economy until an effective vaccine is available. And even in your scenario a vaccine that is 95% effective will still save millions of lives. An effective vaccine will save lives, and it will improve the economy. There is no logical reason to deny that fact. [1] https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v...

Hurray for a vaccine that is > 90% effective on a disease that for those who get it have a > 99% survival rate. Bring on the new overlords.

by whb07 6y ago

Hurray for a vaccine that is > 90% effective on a disease that for those who get it have a > 99% survival rate. Bring on the new overlords.

nkjoep 6y ago

I guess survival rate means a different thing from side effects. I would be still cautious with that statement and not underestimate it.

macintux 6y ago
Not to mention the side effect of the collapse of our healthcare system.
- whb07 6y ago
  I agree, by having a shutdown and mandatory at-home confinements and fear mongering, you have people not attending hospitals and the like for routine and checkups for more serious diseases.
whb07 6y ago
Side effects of shutdowns include: * depression * suicide * poverty -> famine and disease * missed education * dependency on gov * freedoms given up and transferred to gov I also agree that there are other side effects, just like every disease.
- marvin 6y ago
  Soooooo... If you were somewhat pragmatic, you'd acknowledge that a lot of people, maybe even a majority, actually support various social distancing measures and shutdowns. These measures certainly have a negative economic impact, irrespective of whether a negative economic impact would happen just due to the voluntary measures of these people. And regardless, wouldn't it be a net gain to deploy a vaccine? It would certainly be more effective at placating this group of people than implying they're all idiots. It would be a huge benefit towards resuming a relatively normal society, regardless of whether they're right or whether they're somehow all just a bunch of nervous morons. So why would you criticise it?
  - whb07 6y ago
    I agree we should have a vaccine, I do not agree with mandatory shutdowns and all the negative down stream side effects which are PROVEN to be larger than the disease itself.
    - abootstrapper 6y ago
      Gonna need a citation on that all caps “proven.”
      - hedora 6y ago
        https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
- Emphere 6y ago
  Countries that didn't enforce strict lockdowns do worse economically https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/to-save-the-economy-save-people-first https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/to-save-the-...

learc83 6y ago

Those 2 numbers aren’t comparable. A 1% death rate with a disease as contagious as COVID means more than 50 million dead globally at some point (not everyone will get it but the majority will eventually). Near universal vaccination with a vaccine that is 95% effective at preventing severe cases means saving 47.5 million lives in that scenario. Despite the disease having a 99% survival rate. If the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity (or just reduces your ability to pass it on), it could save more, and wouldn’t even require universal vaccination to do so. Furthermore, people are staying home voluntarily in many places. An effective vaccine will alleviate their fears and help the economy. In a way that telling people not to worry about a <1% chance or death will not.

whb07 6y ago
That is not quite the case as the you're double counting quite a number of people. set A = The set of all people who die from covid set B = The set of people who were going to die that year from cancer, heart, age etc Nearly all of set A fits inside set B. For evidence see either CDC or even the Italian health ministry data set they even published as far back as April 2020 where the median age of death was 79 and 50% had 3+ other diseases and sub 1% had no other diseases.
- learc83 6y ago
  1. The median age of death at 79, and 50% of people have 3+ diseases doesn't imply that "Nearly all of the people who die from COVID had a life expectancy of < 1 year" as you say. Those 3+ diseases you mention include diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity etc... Diseases that people commonly live with for decades. The median remaining lifespan of a person who dies of COVID has been estimated to be around 12 years [1,2]. 2. Lets say you are correct and 90% of people who die of COVID would have died within 1 year. And let's assume that you have some magic PR method that will convince 100% of the population that this is true. That means that COVID is still more deadly than the Flu, and some large percentage of people will still choose to remain home, stop traveling, stop eating out etc... These people will continue to damage the economy until an effective vaccine is available. And even in your scenario a vaccine that is 95% effective will still save millions of lives. An effective vaccine will save lives, and it will improve the economy. There is no logical reason to deny that fact. [1] https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v...