6 ms·

One thing I find very interesting is the effect of other factors on the total number of deaths. For example, the 2008 recession was linked with over 260,000 exc

One thing I find very interesting is the effect of other factors on the total number of deaths. For example, the 2008 recession was linked with over 260,000 excess deaths from cancer alone [0]. All of the things associated with a lockdown - high stress, decreased social contact, less movement, less economic activity - are also associated with serious increases in other deaths. At what point does a lockdown have negative EV in terms of general public health? To copy a previous comment of mine - regardless of the actual effect of lockdowns, I think this has become such a political issue in the US that the American left would be very hard pressed to publicly change course. I really hope that statisticians are able to look past their own personal convictions and look at possible ways our assumptions may have been incorrect. (Personally speaking, I wear a mask, I don't think the coronavirus is a giant conspiracy by the lizard people etc. but I do recognize that the modern scientific community has a tendency to think one way, and then remain cemented in that way for a while.) [0] https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-excess-cancer-deaths-atun/ https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-do...

frockington1 6y ago
The positive side to a stubborn scientific community are the money making opportunities it presents. For those who were able to get past the doom and gloom of the media and scientific communities 2020 has been a fantastic year of growth
Pyramus 6y ago
The study you cited doesn't really support your point - it basically says the 260k deaths would have been preventable with basic universal healthcare in place: > "In countries with UHC—defined in the study as [...]—the link between unemployment and excess cancer deaths disappeared, suggesting that greater access to health care played a key role in mitigating the problem." If you are really interested in the effect of lockdown on public health my suggestion is to decouple your thinking from American politics and view it as a global problem. How did lockdown affect public health in {China, South Korea, Italy, Germany, etc.}? As a counter-example, how did Sweden fare? > I really hope that statisticians are able to look past their own personal convictions and look at possible ways our assumptions may have been incorrect. This is pretty vague, what do you mean?
- owenversteeg 6y ago
  Sure it does, as I'm pretty sure the US does not have universal health care right now :) Also, while many countries have (on paper) universal health care, in reality you will need to go into the private system for quality care. I am definitely a fan of universal healthcare, and it works well in many rich countries, but this is a global pandemic, not just something affecting Europe and America. > This is pretty vague, what do you mean? People in general - and the scientific community is no exception - have the tendency to engage in groupthink and maintain incorrect assumptions, and this pandemic has shown that very clearly. For one simple example, look at the messaging around masks: the WHO was very slow to change their response. I think it's very possible that one or more major assumptions are incorrect, for example around transmission mechanisms, the best ways to stop the spread of the virus etc, and that we should encourage a diversity of approaches. For one example, I am shocked that the countries that are incredible coronavirus "success stories" such as Vietnam only occasionally appear in the news. They just went three entire months with zero locally transmitted cases - what can we learn from them?
  - lazyasciiart 6y ago
    Mostly we can learn that when the entire population follows recommendations to wear masks, close businesses and socially distance, those measures work. That "extreme" measures taken early, like closing all borders, can prevent asymptomatic travellers bringing it in and spreading across the country. That being willing to quarantine an entire town can cut off an outbreak early. It doesn't make a great story, because the audience is already pretty fixed in positions that will produce responses of either "no shit, guys" or "LIES". https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/08/1070852 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/08/1070852
  - Pyramus 6y ago
    I thought your point was that financial downturn leads to diminished public health, which it doesn't (only if you deny people healthcare). I'm not sure masks are a good example for 'groupthink'. The messaging was inconsistent not because 'all scientists were thinking alike' but because there was a lack of evidence around cotton-based 'community' masks and even medical masks of type II. Sorry I'm pressing you on this. I agree groupthink does exist and is bad, however in the true sciences it's very rare. So would be interested to get an example related to Covid. > For one example, I am shocked that the countries that are incredible coronavirus "success stories" such as Vietnam only occasionally appear in the news. They just went three entire months with zero locally transmitted cases - what can we learn from them? Fully agree with you here. Every country seems to be in their own bubble and rarely look abroad in a deeper manner.

frockington1 6y ago

The positive side to a stubborn scientific community are the money making opportunities it presents. For those who were able to get past the doom and gloom of the media and scientific communities 2020 has been a fantastic year of growth

Pyramus 6y ago

The study you cited doesn't really support your point - it basically says the 260k deaths would have been preventable with basic universal healthcare in place: > "In countries with UHC—defined in the study as [...]—the link between unemployment and excess cancer deaths disappeared, suggesting that greater access to health care played a key role in mitigating the problem." If you are really interested in the effect of lockdown on public health my suggestion is to decouple your thinking from American politics and view it as a global problem. How did lockdown affect public health in {China, South Korea, Italy, Germany, etc.}? As a counter-example, how did Sweden fare? > I really hope that statisticians are able to look past their own personal convictions and look at possible ways our assumptions may have been incorrect. This is pretty vague, what do you mean?

owenversteeg 6y ago
Sure it does, as I'm pretty sure the US does not have universal health care right now :) Also, while many countries have (on paper) universal health care, in reality you will need to go into the private system for quality care. I am definitely a fan of universal healthcare, and it works well in many rich countries, but this is a global pandemic, not just something affecting Europe and America. > This is pretty vague, what do you mean? People in general - and the scientific community is no exception - have the tendency to engage in groupthink and maintain incorrect assumptions, and this pandemic has shown that very clearly. For one simple example, look at the messaging around masks: the WHO was very slow to change their response. I think it's very possible that one or more major assumptions are incorrect, for example around transmission mechanisms, the best ways to stop the spread of the virus etc, and that we should encourage a diversity of approaches. For one example, I am shocked that the countries that are incredible coronavirus "success stories" such as Vietnam only occasionally appear in the news. They just went three entire months with zero locally transmitted cases - what can we learn from them?
- lazyasciiart 6y ago
  Mostly we can learn that when the entire population follows recommendations to wear masks, close businesses and socially distance, those measures work. That "extreme" measures taken early, like closing all borders, can prevent asymptomatic travellers bringing it in and spreading across the country. That being willing to quarantine an entire town can cut off an outbreak early. It doesn't make a great story, because the audience is already pretty fixed in positions that will produce responses of either "no shit, guys" or "LIES". https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/08/1070852 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/08/1070852
- Pyramus 6y ago
  I thought your point was that financial downturn leads to diminished public health, which it doesn't (only if you deny people healthcare). I'm not sure masks are a good example for 'groupthink'. The messaging was inconsistent not because 'all scientists were thinking alike' but because there was a lack of evidence around cotton-based 'community' masks and even medical masks of type II. Sorry I'm pressing you on this. I agree groupthink does exist and is bad, however in the true sciences it's very rare. So would be interested to get an example related to Covid. > For one example, I am shocked that the countries that are incredible coronavirus "success stories" such as Vietnam only occasionally appear in the news. They just went three entire months with zero locally transmitted cases - what can we learn from them? Fully agree with you here. Every country seems to be in their own bubble and rarely look abroad in a deeper manner.