3 ms·

What are you on about? It's clearly COVID.

ghaff 6y ago
There's nothing clearly about it although the data is certainly suggestive. I hope you don't do science or anything else that involves creating hypotheses and testing them. I'm inclined to think "probably" but the parent comment is at least plausible.
- wffurr 6y ago
  I’m sure they exist, but almost every scented candle I’ve ever smelled is quite strong. Smelling candles in a store is a matter of finding a smell that you like, not one that has a smell at all. Lack of smell is a characteristic symptom of the coronavirus, including in otherwise a symptomatic people. The proportion of reviews (2->6%) pretty clearly tracks the increased caseload of the virus in the United States. While you are technically correct, this phenomenon is almost certainly due to the virus.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    I actually agree it's probably the most plausible explanation. I was mostly objecting to the no other explanation is even worth considering tone.
    - zikzak 6y ago
      I agree. There are many people, like me, that barely have a sense of smell to begin with. I would never buy a scented candle for myself. But if I didn't really know that Scott myself, maybe I would suddenly decide to get one based on an article about covid and scented candles and then be disappointed. The reason I say this is I didn't really know how bad my sense of smell was until my son was born and I started dealing with various odours that I could handle easily and others found far stronger.
  - LorenPechtel 6y ago
    Yup--I'm sensitive to such smells and I avoid any part of a store that has scented candles, period. Just sitting on the shelf they bother me.
- saraRegal 6y ago
  There is also another hypothesis that likely is messing with the data, more people are working at home and from what I can tell from friends, it is making women buy a lot more scented candles (they’re literally selling out once stock is added), which combines with the time and convenience of being able to write reviews that would otherwise not be written. Or, as you described earlier, there would be no review or rating left when smelling candles in store. This seems to be a form of selection bias. I also find it rather shocking how nonchalant people who likely consider themselves educated and scientific, just jump to rather dangerous conclusions; dangerous in that it can contribute to hysterics that have been driving this pandemic response and has us in a catch 22 type situation.
  - gruez 6y ago
    Isn't this a non-issue because they're measuring the proportion of reviews rather than the absolute amount? The selection bias effect that you mentioned still applies, but as long as the effect is consistent between months it shouldn't affect the conclusion.
    - ashtonkem 6y ago
      You can’t just count on proportion, because the cohort of people buying candles online in March includes a bunch of people who used to buy candles exclusively in store. If the previously in-store people were more likely to be picky or have different needs, there is a good chance that they would leave different ratings online. It’s hard to separate those effects. It seems plausible to me that someone who insists on buying candles in store is likely to be more picky than someone who buys online, (or based on my time in Candle sections, is already nose-deaf and need very strong candles), and thus would be more likely to complain. The big question is what are they buying. If these reviews are coming from people buying the same brand/scent as before, then Covid related scent loss is the most plausible explanation (although I wonder why some one in such a situation would bother to leave a review....). But if these shoppers are buying new scents for fun or availability reasons, it’s hard to separate those who are losing their smell due to Covid from those who are just dissatisfied with a candle they purchased scent unsmelled.
- ylyn 6y ago
  I think GP was being sarcastic.

There's nothing clearly about it although the data is certainly suggestive. I hope you don't do science or anything else that involves creating hypotheses and testing them. I'm inclined to think "probably" but the parent comment is at least plausible.

wffurr 6y ago
I’m sure they exist, but almost every scented candle I’ve ever smelled is quite strong. Smelling candles in a store is a matter of finding a smell that you like, not one that has a smell at all. Lack of smell is a characteristic symptom of the coronavirus, including in otherwise a symptomatic people. The proportion of reviews (2->6%) pretty clearly tracks the increased caseload of the virus in the United States. While you are technically correct, this phenomenon is almost certainly due to the virus.
- ghaff 6y ago
  I actually agree it's probably the most plausible explanation. I was mostly objecting to the no other explanation is even worth considering tone.
  - zikzak 6y ago
    I agree. There are many people, like me, that barely have a sense of smell to begin with. I would never buy a scented candle for myself. But if I didn't really know that Scott myself, maybe I would suddenly decide to get one based on an article about covid and scented candles and then be disappointed. The reason I say this is I didn't really know how bad my sense of smell was until my son was born and I started dealing with various odours that I could handle easily and others found far stronger.
- LorenPechtel 6y ago
  Yup--I'm sensitive to such smells and I avoid any part of a store that has scented candles, period. Just sitting on the shelf they bother me.
saraRegal 6y ago
There is also another hypothesis that likely is messing with the data, more people are working at home and from what I can tell from friends, it is making women buy a lot more scented candles (they’re literally selling out once stock is added), which combines with the time and convenience of being able to write reviews that would otherwise not be written. Or, as you described earlier, there would be no review or rating left when smelling candles in store. This seems to be a form of selection bias. I also find it rather shocking how nonchalant people who likely consider themselves educated and scientific, just jump to rather dangerous conclusions; dangerous in that it can contribute to hysterics that have been driving this pandemic response and has us in a catch 22 type situation.
- gruez 6y ago
  Isn't this a non-issue because they're measuring the proportion of reviews rather than the absolute amount? The selection bias effect that you mentioned still applies, but as long as the effect is consistent between months it shouldn't affect the conclusion.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    You can’t just count on proportion, because the cohort of people buying candles online in March includes a bunch of people who used to buy candles exclusively in store. If the previously in-store people were more likely to be picky or have different needs, there is a good chance that they would leave different ratings online. It’s hard to separate those effects. It seems plausible to me that someone who insists on buying candles in store is likely to be more picky than someone who buys online, (or based on my time in Candle sections, is already nose-deaf and need very strong candles), and thus would be more likely to complain. The big question is what are they buying. If these reviews are coming from people buying the same brand/scent as before, then Covid related scent loss is the most plausible explanation (although I wonder why some one in such a situation would bother to leave a review....). But if these shoppers are buying new scents for fun or availability reasons, it’s hard to separate those who are losing their smell due to Covid from those who are just dissatisfied with a candle they purchased scent unsmelled.
ylyn 6y ago
I think GP was being sarcastic.