4 ms·
> What are the chances of taking $1M and investing so that I don’t have to work anymore? Not high. I'm going to guess, based on the fact that you have 8 years
by twblalock 6y ago
> What are the chances of taking $1M and investing so that I don’t have to work anymore?
Not high.
I'm going to guess, based on the fact that you have 8 years in the tech industry, that you are probably in your late 20s or early 30s. Given modern life expectancy, that means you could be alive for at least 60 more years.
In order to make 1 million dollars last that long you are going to need to take on significant investment risk. "Normal" investment risk, e.g. from index funds, is not going to grow the money enough -- if you withdraw enough every year to live on, the money will run out. When it runs out, you will probably have been out of the job market for decades, and therefore unemployable.
If you are living on a fixed income, predictability of expenses is key. Home ownership is one way to control your expenses -- get a fixed-rate mortgage and your monthly cost of living will be fairly predictable. Property tax and utility costs might fluctuate, but in most places the mortgage will be the largest cost, and you can lock that in at a known monthly amount. However, you just sold your house. If you are planning to rent, you won't have the predictability that you need in order to plan for future expenses. If you are planning to buy again, that $1 million is going to shrink by the amount that you pay for your next home.
You probably can't retire on $1 million. But you can take some time off, like a sabbatical. If you aren't happy in your work, you can look for another job, and having that money will let you coast for a while until you find it.
- garmaine 6y agoJust FYI that investment is quite dated. Modern advice is to invest heavily in stocks--even as much as 90% stocks, 10% bonds--then withdraw no more than 4% of the original balance, corrected for inflation, per year. Historical back-testing as well as stochastic modeling shows that in this way you can expect funds to remain indefinitely. (The details are a bit more complicated, and you might want to choose a smaller percentage like 3.5% or 3% if you are retiring at a younger age.)
- alltakendamned 6y agoThe definition of indefinitely in the trinity study which you seem to refer to is 30 years.
- garmaine 6y agoNo the trinity study (and its follow-ups) only run simulations for 30 years, but they did not say that the funds would run out in 30 years. To be precise: the success criteria was that the portfolio survived for 30 years, but the actual outcome was that most portfolios had more than the original principal at the 30-year mark. Which would imply indefinite survival.