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Warning: fellow engineer here. I am not a financial advisor. You can follow one of two stock-based strategies: 1. Invest 100% in an S&P500 index fund, returni
by bcherny 6y ago
Warning: fellow engineer here. I am not a financial advisor.
You can follow one of two stock-based strategies:
1. Invest 100% in an S&P500 index fund, returning 8%/year [1] and growing to $11M in 30 years [2], minus withdrawals.
2. Invest 100% in bonds, or a high yield savings account, yielding 0.6%/year [3] and growing to $1.2M in 30 years [2], minus withdrawals.
You want to do as much of (1) as possible, while doing (2) as little as possible in order to pay for things (mortgage, rent, food, kids, etc.). You can't rely on (1) for day to day expenses, since stock returns are super variable (recessions, depressions are inevitable over time).
To balance the two, you can think of it as: consider retirement when MIN(1, 2) > expenses. The exact mix of 1 and 2 depends on your personal risk tolerance.
EDIT: Numbers for (2) were off, as suggested by multiple people in the comments. Updated.
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[1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average...
[2] Calculate this with an online interest calculator (being sure to re-invest earnings), or remember the rule of 7 (your stocks will double in value every seven years).
[3] https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/best-high-yield-interests-savings-accounts/ https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/best-high-yield-int...
- pbk1 6y ago0.6% compounded for 30 years would be barely $1.02M
- darkteflon 6y agoLooks like you dropped a zero in your calcs for example 2. Should be 1,000,000 * (1.006 ^ 30). Perhaps you used 1.06 instead. Works out to about $1.2m after 30 years, unadjusted for inflation.
- bcherny 6y agoUpdated, thanks.
- aparsons 6y ago> minus withdrawals Withdrawals change these numbers tremendously
- bcherny 6y agoRight, they’re the crux of it. It comes down to what OP’s expenses are.