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Are you aware that "lock down hard" isn't possible? Do you expect food to still turn up in the shops, garbage to be collected, maintenance to be done on your ut

Are you aware that "lock down hard" isn't possible? Do you expect food to still turn up in the shops, garbage to be collected, maintenance to be done on your utilities, online purchases to still work? The death toll is on the scale of normal seasonal flu outbreaks when you subtract the deaths caused by lockdowns (i.e. that occur during lockdowns but that don't mention COVID on the death certificate). New Zealand is screwed by the way: good luck with international travel from now on.

lostlogin 6y ago
I’m in NZ. Our level 4 lockdown was strict and only essential services kept running. Can you provide a source showing covid is less deadly that the flu? I can travel internationally from NZ and can get back in if I want to, but I don’t want to leave NZ. Why are we screwed? Everything is normal here now.
- thu2111 6y ago
  I didn't say it was less deadly than the flu. I said it's comparable to a normal seasonal flu outbreak if you subtract deaths caused by lockdowns. Please don't change people's arguments in the act of re-phrasing them. Source: look at excess death data for most European countries. Even in the UK which had a significant wave of non-COVID excess deaths during the first wave (a little under half of them didn't mention COVID on the death certificate), excess deaths from it was similar to the winter of 1999/2000. And in countries that have less incompetent management the waves of deaths are similar to flu waves. There are many, many sources you can get the data from. Try EuroMoMo, the national statistical agencies etc. But here's just one example, long term Swedish mortality data: https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-deaths-1851.jpg https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-... Remember Sweden didn't lock down. Modelling predicted a bloodbath which never happened. As for NZ, what kind of business or tourist travellers will go to New Zealand now they have to be temporarily imprisoned at their own absurdly high expense? Adding a more than $3000 charge per person to arrival, plus lost time? Your island is currently a pariah state that people will avoid visiting unless absolutely necessary, indefinitely. I assume at some point these rules will be dropped for those who can show an immunity passport because it's the only way New Zealand doesn't just drop off the face of the planet, but vaccines aren't 100% effective and even the vaccinated can still carry the virus: they just get milder symptoms. So it's not at all clear how New Zealand plans to ever open back up.

lostlogin 6y ago

I’m in NZ. Our level 4 lockdown was strict and only essential services kept running. Can you provide a source showing covid is less deadly that the flu? I can travel internationally from NZ and can get back in if I want to, but I don’t want to leave NZ. Why are we screwed? Everything is normal here now.

thu2111 6y ago
I didn't say it was less deadly than the flu. I said it's comparable to a normal seasonal flu outbreak if you subtract deaths caused by lockdowns. Please don't change people's arguments in the act of re-phrasing them. Source: look at excess death data for most European countries. Even in the UK which had a significant wave of non-COVID excess deaths during the first wave (a little under half of them didn't mention COVID on the death certificate), excess deaths from it was similar to the winter of 1999/2000. And in countries that have less incompetent management the waves of deaths are similar to flu waves. There are many, many sources you can get the data from. Try EuroMoMo, the national statistical agencies etc. But here's just one example, long term Swedish mortality data: https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-deaths-1851.jpg https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-... Remember Sweden didn't lock down. Modelling predicted a bloodbath which never happened. As for NZ, what kind of business or tourist travellers will go to New Zealand now they have to be temporarily imprisoned at their own absurdly high expense? Adding a more than $3000 charge per person to arrival, plus lost time? Your island is currently a pariah state that people will avoid visiting unless absolutely necessary, indefinitely. I assume at some point these rules will be dropped for those who can show an immunity passport because it's the only way New Zealand doesn't just drop off the face of the planet, but vaccines aren't 100% effective and even the vaccinated can still carry the virus: they just get milder symptoms. So it's not at all clear how New Zealand plans to ever open back up.