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But that’s the thing: the “true“ probability is unknowable, and may even be an ill-defined concept. It is a deterministic process, so “probability“ is just a si
by prmph 6y ago
But that’s the thing: the “true“ probability is unknowable, and may even be an ill-defined concept. It is a deterministic process, so “probability“ is just a simplifying concept to describe our best guess belief about how the coin behaves in the aggregate.
- SAI_Peregrinus 6y agoThe true probability requires an infinite sequence of tests, so it's by definition unknowable. But it's what any sort of statistics attempts to approximate.
- myrryr 6y agoBut, once the approximates are within undetectable differences from the "true probability" then you are done. Because not only is the true probability unknownable, it is also unencodeable, but, if we are to accept a limitation on encoding, then we CAN give a true probability subject to that. Like.... if we are to determine a coins probability to 1 decimal place, then we can do that.