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This is basically the Bayesian interpretation of probability.
by Sharlin 6y ago
This is basically the Bayesian interpretation of probability.
- enriquto 6y agoOf course. But if you pronounce a fancy word like "bayesian" there's a large amount of minds that shut irremediably.
- v64 6y agoThat's also why we call it QBism [1] instead of quantum bayesianism [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_Bayesianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_Bayesianism
- lottin 6y agoSaying that "the probability of a coin toss of 50% talks about you" is not an interpretation of probability. Saying that we are "50% sure" is also not an interpretation of probability. It's a nonsensical statement. It's like saying we are "50% angry". It doesn't really mean anything.
- alisonkisk 6y agoI don't understand your claims that these statements are are meaningless. They are commonly uttered and understood.
- lottin 6y agoI can understand expressions such as "pretty sure" or "completely sure". I do not understand the expression "to be X% sure". If someone says they're "37% sure" tomorrow will rain, what does that mean exactly?
- dinosaurdynasty 6y ago37% of the time that someone says they are 37% sure of a statement X the statement X is true (assuming they're calibrated correctly/etc).
- kgwgk 6y agoCan you understand expressions like "more sure of A than B" or "as sure of A as of B"? Then, they are as sure that tomorrow will rain as they are sure that throwing three dice the sum will be 9 or less (37.5%).
- lottin 6y agoIt's clear that 37.5% sure is 0.5% more sure than 37% sure. The problem remains how to interpret these numbers.
- kgwgk 6y agoYou're asking about the interpretation of a statement such as "I assign the same probability to events A and B"? That would mean that both are equally likely as far as that person knows.
- lottin 6y agoNo, I'm not asking that.
- kgwgk 6y ago> If someone says they're "37% sure" tomorrow will rain, what does that mean exactly? When someone says they're "37% sure" tomorrow will rain they mean that they assign the same probability to "tomorrow will rain" that they do to "if you throw three dice you'll get 9 or less" or "when you threw three dice you got 9 or less". In the second case the event is either true or false already and there is no uncertainty for you, their probability assignment is their best guess with the information they have.
- lottin 6y agoThe question is what is probability according to the subjective interpretation of probability? The answer usually given is that probability is a degree of belief. Thus, a probability of 37% means that you're 37% sure that some event will take place. What I'm saying is this definition is meaningless unless you define what it means to be X% sure about something, but the definition of "being X% sure" must not rely on the notion of probability because "probability" is what we are trying to define in the first place!