6 ms·

Why do you have to: 1. Incorrectly quote the statistic (two thirds of suicides are male) 2. Come up with a BS narrative (domestic abuse, when japan isn’t even

by verroq 6y ago

Why do you have to: 1. Incorrectly quote the statistic (two thirds of suicides are male) 2. Come up with a BS narrative (domestic abuse, when japan isn’t even locked down) to explain these statistics after the fact (instead of a falsifiable hypothesis that can be tested) Funnily enough, this is exactly what is wrong with social science in general.

xg15 6y ago
You believe a sudden 80% increase in a statistic is not newsworthy?
- Noos 6y ago
  No, if I'm reading the quote correctly: "To date, more than 17,000 people have taken their own lives this year in Japan. October self-inflicted deaths were up 600 year on year, with female suicides, about a third of the total, surging over 80%." that's an increase from 110 people in a month to 200 roughly, if the 80% is of the rise in the percentage of the female suicides and not of the total amount, if I read right. Overall it doesn't seem like suicide has exploded, just that Japan had a downwards trend that reversed back up to old levels. Not very newsworthy at all, imo.
  - strogonoff 6y ago
    There is a rise in absolute numbers, and an even starker rise when considered against the baseline of the longer-term downwards trend. 80% is not far from doubling the number, which sounds pretty alarming.
strogonoff 6y ago
I stand corrected regarding statistics (female cases rose more drastically but still do not exceed male cases) and edited my comment to reflect that, but will not take back the general sentiment. Domestic abuse statistics are near impossible to gather reliably, so I am extrapolating from what is known about this issue that current situation likely has made things worse for victims (of any gender). I am aware that Japan is not under full lockdown, but partial lockdown (businesses like cafes or dance halls closing and owners staying at home) and remote work are a thing. Then, consider places elsewhere in the world where lockdown measures are or had been stricter.
- thatguy0900 6y ago
  it just sounds like you have a conclusion in mind and you're trying your hardest to make things fit it to be honest
  - strogonoff 6y ago
    I have a hypothesis which you are more than welcome to go ahead and try to disprove, I’d be only happy if you succeed. Your comment contains no arguments to the contrary, however.
    - verroq 6y ago
      That’s not how it works. That’s also not how science works. The burden of the proof is on whoever is making the claim. Saying “this unsubstantiated claim is true until proven wrong” is a logically fallacy.
      - strogonoff 6y ago
        This is not physics—electrons do not lie, self-select or suffer. Closing your ears and shouting “domestic abuse is not an issue, because surely we can just ask a bias-neutral perfectly random slice of the population whether they are experiencing or dealing it, and surely everyone can and is willing to answer truthfully” is what helps perpetuate the issue. This is expecting conclusive data where it is impossible to collect (absent total surveillance of households). What is available is anecdotal observations, and enough anecdotal observations can compel one to form a hypothesis.

by verroq 6y ago

xg15 6y ago

You believe a sudden 80% increase in a statistic is not newsworthy?

Noos 6y ago
No, if I'm reading the quote correctly: "To date, more than 17,000 people have taken their own lives this year in Japan. October self-inflicted deaths were up 600 year on year, with female suicides, about a third of the total, surging over 80%." that's an increase from 110 people in a month to 200 roughly, if the 80% is of the rise in the percentage of the female suicides and not of the total amount, if I read right. Overall it doesn't seem like suicide has exploded, just that Japan had a downwards trend that reversed back up to old levels. Not very newsworthy at all, imo.
- strogonoff 6y ago
  There is a rise in absolute numbers, and an even starker rise when considered against the baseline of the longer-term downwards trend. 80% is not far from doubling the number, which sounds pretty alarming.

strogonoff 6y ago

I stand corrected regarding statistics (female cases rose more drastically but still do not exceed male cases) and edited my comment to reflect that, but will not take back the general sentiment. Domestic abuse statistics are near impossible to gather reliably, so I am extrapolating from what is known about this issue that current situation likely has made things worse for victims (of any gender). I am aware that Japan is not under full lockdown, but partial lockdown (businesses like cafes or dance halls closing and owners staying at home) and remote work are a thing. Then, consider places elsewhere in the world where lockdown measures are or had been stricter.

thatguy0900 6y ago
it just sounds like you have a conclusion in mind and you're trying your hardest to make things fit it to be honest
- strogonoff 6y ago
  I have a hypothesis which you are more than welcome to go ahead and try to disprove, I’d be only happy if you succeed. Your comment contains no arguments to the contrary, however.
  - verroq 6y ago
    That’s not how it works. That’s also not how science works. The burden of the proof is on whoever is making the claim. Saying “this unsubstantiated claim is true until proven wrong” is a logically fallacy.
    - strogonoff 6y ago
      This is not physics—electrons do not lie, self-select or suffer. Closing your ears and shouting “domestic abuse is not an issue, because surely we can just ask a bias-neutral perfectly random slice of the population whether they are experiencing or dealing it, and surely everyone can and is willing to answer truthfully” is what helps perpetuate the issue. This is expecting conclusive data where it is impossible to collect (absent total surveillance of households). What is available is anecdotal observations, and enough anecdotal observations can compel one to form a hypothesis.