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This was to be expected. Israel has been keeping tabs on this guy for a very long time. With Trump on the way out and Biden likely to restart the nuclear deal,

This was to be expected. Israel has been keeping tabs on this guy for a very long time. With Trump on the way out and Biden likely to restart the nuclear deal, Israel's and the UE's fear of Iran pushing a clandestine weapons program would be at an all-time high. This actually kills three birds with one stone: - Massive setback in Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. - Hobbles negotiations for any future nuclear deal with Iran. - Iran's rhetoric following this will likely be helpful in wooing the Saudi crown prince further to the Israeli side, and possibly help bring more Arab nations over (perhaps even Egypt? They've had softer words of late). But it had to happen before Biden takes office. Now Iran will be isolated for another decade, possibly more, which is exactly what Israel's foreign policy has been in this area.

stunt 6y ago
> Massive setback in Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. You really believe that a single scientist was the main brain for the whole project? The mail goal is perhaps to impact negotiations between Iran and Biden's administration. Second possible goal could be a conflict between the U.S. and Iran. All it takes now is someone in the region to attack one of the U.S. bases, or just provide some fake intelligence that Iran is going to retaliate by attacking one of the U.S. interests in the region. Then it will be too late before anyone can proof it wasn't really a response from Iran.
- kstenerud 6y ago
  Iran is well aware that this is a Mossad job. They're not going to start attacking US bases in retaliation - that would just hurt Iran even more. The point of this assassination is to make it harder for Iran to restart even with a softening US stance. Iran obviously has other scientists who can pick up the baton, but don't underestimate the amplifying power of a visionary, and the impact on morale when you lose someone like that. You've also got the gnawing fear factor of anyone who succeeds him, having a giant target on his back. These are classic tried-and-true intelligence service tactics, and they work well.

stunt 6y ago

> Massive setback in Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. You really believe that a single scientist was the main brain for the whole project? The mail goal is perhaps to impact negotiations between Iran and Biden's administration. Second possible goal could be a conflict between the U.S. and Iran. All it takes now is someone in the region to attack one of the U.S. bases, or just provide some fake intelligence that Iran is going to retaliate by attacking one of the U.S. interests in the region. Then it will be too late before anyone can proof it wasn't really a response from Iran.

kstenerud 6y ago
Iran is well aware that this is a Mossad job. They're not going to start attacking US bases in retaliation - that would just hurt Iran even more. The point of this assassination is to make it harder for Iran to restart even with a softening US stance. Iran obviously has other scientists who can pick up the baton, but don't underestimate the amplifying power of a visionary, and the impact on morale when you lose someone like that. You've also got the gnawing fear factor of anyone who succeeds him, having a giant target on his back. These are classic tried-and-true intelligence service tactics, and they work well.