This reminded me of a different article by Scott Alexander which also addresses the topic of certain ventures like the stock market and job interviewing being “

This reminded me of a different article by Scott Alexander which also addresses the topic of certain ventures like the stock market and job interviewing being “anti-inductive” aka resistant to formulas that worked in the past. You could say that successful independent thinking is also a highly anti-inductive activity. https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/11/the-phatic-and-the-anti-inductive/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/11/the-phatic-and-the-ant...