4 ms·

As a recent immigrant to Canada it sort of terrifies me how irrational the market is. That said, I'm buying a house. I moved from Seattle and it is utterly biza

As a recent immigrant to Canada it sort of terrifies me how irrational the market is. That said, I'm buying a house. I moved from Seattle and it is utterly bizarre to me that housing in Vancouver is more expensive than Seattle, while also offering significantly lower pay. My hot take is that most of the rulemakers (politicians), are property owners, and are unwilling to take the drastic steps needed to put the brakes on. My solution is to take drastic steps to increase supply. The empty homes tax in Vancouver was a good step for rentals, but I think it should be punishingly high since I suspect that cheating is rampant. I also think that the permitting and building process should be inverted; any project that follows zoning rules should allowed by default, and it shouldn't take months or years to get permitting approved. If I'm allowed to go hog-wild I also think that anyone that supports historic 'character' neighborhoods should have to live the full historic lifestyle. If you fight density on 'historic' grounds you should also be forced to sell your price for the 'historic' price, use 'historic' appliances, and earn 'historic' pay.

cmrdporcupine 6y ago
On the supply front, both Toronto and Vancouver have densified _significantly_ over the last 10-20 years, with condo construction in Vancouver completely off the charts. It seems to have done little to alleviate issues. Immigration combined with net migration into the city is a big part of it, I guess. But I am not convinced this is entirely an issue of supply constraints, as high pricing is no longer confined to the largest metro zones.
- dghlsakjg 6y ago
  There are a lot of issues, and densification is certainly happening in the downtown cores, but I don't believe it is enough to keep up with the demands put on it by population increases. More anecdata: I live walking distance to Downtown Vancouver, and within a block of 4 bus routes. There is an empty lot next to me that has been in the permitting process for more than two years for a lowrise mixed-use building. I wouldn't be surprised if the cost imposed by the permitting process is close to $1mm when you factor in interest, salaries to hire the people who know people at city hall, the cost of the actual permits, etc. Other things that factor heavily are cheap money (interest rates are lower than inflation on mortgages right now, around 1.7%), cultural normalization (buying a home for 10x your yearly income is considered normal), lack of opportunity outside of cities.
  - cmrdporcupine 6y ago
    Low rates/cheap money is insane. We are on a variable rate mortgage, and our interest rate is 1.4%!! But it's actually the second time I've had a rate this low, we had a similar phenomenon after 2008 at some point. I live in the exurbs, over an hour from Toronto, but a 3 bedroom home near my daughter's school in the small town / 905 suburb nearby just sold almost $100k over list, at over $1.5M. Absolutely insane.

cmrdporcupine 6y ago

On the supply front, both Toronto and Vancouver have densified _significantly_ over the last 10-20 years, with condo construction in Vancouver completely off the charts. It seems to have done little to alleviate issues. Immigration combined with net migration into the city is a big part of it, I guess. But I am not convinced this is entirely an issue of supply constraints, as high pricing is no longer confined to the largest metro zones.

dghlsakjg 6y ago
There are a lot of issues, and densification is certainly happening in the downtown cores, but I don't believe it is enough to keep up with the demands put on it by population increases. More anecdata: I live walking distance to Downtown Vancouver, and within a block of 4 bus routes. There is an empty lot next to me that has been in the permitting process for more than two years for a lowrise mixed-use building. I wouldn't be surprised if the cost imposed by the permitting process is close to $1mm when you factor in interest, salaries to hire the people who know people at city hall, the cost of the actual permits, etc. Other things that factor heavily are cheap money (interest rates are lower than inflation on mortgages right now, around 1.7%), cultural normalization (buying a home for 10x your yearly income is considered normal), lack of opportunity outside of cities.
- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  Low rates/cheap money is insane. We are on a variable rate mortgage, and our interest rate is 1.4%!! But it's actually the second time I've had a rate this low, we had a similar phenomenon after 2008 at some point. I live in the exurbs, over an hour from Toronto, but a 3 bedroom home near my daughter's school in the small town / 905 suburb nearby just sold almost $100k over list, at over $1.5M. Absolutely insane.