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It's a student paper, the author of the piece appears to be a neuroscience undergrad... I'm sure they're a fine student journalist but it's not exactly peer rev

It's a student paper, the author of the piece appears to be a neuroscience undergrad... I'm sure they're a fine student journalist but it's not exactly peer review.

TigeriusKirk 6y ago
Now that you're firmly and repeatedly on record being skeptical of the author, what do you think is wrong about the content?
- roywiggins 6y ago
  I don't know, there's no paper, it's just powerpoint slides. I have previously poked around NYC-area death statistics and it looks like 1) a massive spike in deaths by any cause that looks like several 9/11s followed by 2) a regression to the usual rate of deaths once COVID was largely brought to heel in the summer months. I can't imagine that the total number of deaths in NYC this year could possibly be the same as in 2019. But I'm not an expert. Ed: glancing over the CDC statistics, when COVID-attributed deaths go up, all-cause mortality goes up, too... by approximately the same amount. If a large proportion of those COVID deaths were mislabeled heart disease deaths, why is that? I made these graphs with the same CDC data: https://imgur.com/a/YejafCE https://imgur.com/a/YejafCE And of course, there's the CDC's own dashboard on excess deaths, which lets you slice this more finely. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- eesmith 6y ago
  What do you think is wrong with the CDC information https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ? The charts "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)" shows it's a big deal. Or, select the dashboard "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and see that the number of deaths without COVID is pretty close to the expected number of deaths, and not a drop that would compensate for the COVID deaths. You can also see that while the linked-to site claims "The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths.", the CDC writes: > For example, in some cases, COVID-19 may have contributed to the death, but the underlying cause of death was another cause, such as terminal cancer. For the majority of deaths where COVID-19 is reported on the death certificate (approximately 95%), COVID-19 is selected as the underlying cause of death. Furthermore, the CDC write "deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death." Since the surface-level description contradicts easily available evidence, why do you believe the rest of the details are any more meaningful?

It's a student paper, the author of the piece appears to be a neuroscience undergrad... I'm sure they're a fine student journalist but it's not exactly peer review.

TigeriusKirk 6y ago

Now that you're firmly and repeatedly on record being skeptical of the author, what do you think is wrong about the content?

roywiggins 6y ago
I don't know, there's no paper, it's just powerpoint slides. I have previously poked around NYC-area death statistics and it looks like 1) a massive spike in deaths by any cause that looks like several 9/11s followed by 2) a regression to the usual rate of deaths once COVID was largely brought to heel in the summer months. I can't imagine that the total number of deaths in NYC this year could possibly be the same as in 2019. But I'm not an expert. Ed: glancing over the CDC statistics, when COVID-attributed deaths go up, all-cause mortality goes up, too... by approximately the same amount. If a large proportion of those COVID deaths were mislabeled heart disease deaths, why is that? I made these graphs with the same CDC data: https://imgur.com/a/YejafCE https://imgur.com/a/YejafCE And of course, there's the CDC's own dashboard on excess deaths, which lets you slice this more finely. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
eesmith 6y ago
What do you think is wrong with the CDC information https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ? The charts "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)" shows it's a big deal. Or, select the dashboard "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and see that the number of deaths without COVID is pretty close to the expected number of deaths, and not a drop that would compensate for the COVID deaths. You can also see that while the linked-to site claims "The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths.", the CDC writes: > For example, in some cases, COVID-19 may have contributed to the death, but the underlying cause of death was another cause, such as terminal cancer. For the majority of deaths where COVID-19 is reported on the death certificate (approximately 95%), COVID-19 is selected as the underlying cause of death. Furthermore, the CDC write "deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death." Since the surface-level description contradicts easily available evidence, why do you believe the rest of the details are any more meaningful?