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Eventually a group will breakout of ASML to serve the Chinese market because, regardless of sanctions, that is where the growth and possibilities are.

adriancr 6y ago
Depends how hard the US will enforce the restrictions. A group breaking out of ASML would still need a company, is that company going to be in the EU, Japan, US?, if so, restrictions still apply. I'm not sure people will like moving to China to work on chip tech and possibly end up on US lists. Then there's the problem of the whole manufacturing and software tech that is likely closely guarded by ASML, and the massive capital investments to actually get anything done.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  A company in Europe is not subject to US law unless it does business there. The US prevents eg. ASML in doing business with eg. Huawei by threatening to cut off ASML's access to American suppliers and customers.
  - yorwba 6y ago
    A company in Europe is still subject to US pressure on their own government, even if the company itself doesn't do business in the US. The US prevented ASML from selling their EUV machines in China by pressuring the Dutch government not to renew ASML's export license, presumably by threatening more than just ASML's access to American suppliers and customers. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight-idUSKBN1Z50HN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-in...
    - Throwawayaerlei 6y ago
      Several things make this potentially interesting. The lasers that hit the droplets of tin in ASML's EUV machines come from the US. On the other hand, just who is going to be buying EUV machines in the future? Global Foundries has dropped out of the game of cutting edge logic, and Intel shows every sign of never being able to move past their 14 nm node. Their 10 nm node is all 193 nm UV, they're only adopting EUV for their 7 nm node, which is now also failing to deliver the goods. Samsung and TSMC can expand only so fast. Are their other types of chips which are using EUV, or are anticipated to use it in the future, like memory?
varispeed 6y ago
In the end who pays more wins. If China will offer better terms to key workers, then why they wouldn't go for it? I remember that Soviets built entire cities just for engineers all stocked with top food, entertainment and so on. China has resources to meet engineers' wildest dreams. What the West could do about it, confiscate passports?
- adriancr 6y ago
  Using your comparison, look where the Soviets are now...
  - varispeed 6y ago
    Chinese are definitely much smarter. It was just an example what a power can do to achieve their goals.
    - adriancr 6y ago
      Both sides have considerable power. Keep in mind that the Chinese benefited from a US policy designed to help due to US interest in sidelining the USSR. That help is gradually being replaced with the hostility reserved before for the USSR. So, while China may have power to attract people* the US can do a lot more to limit/sideline China. *doubtful though as people will need to live under a dictatorship. This is ignoring what damage a bad/incompetent leader can do to China, one like Stalin since Xi is essentially removing all checks and limits of power.
  - rasz 6y ago
    in Crimea, organizing counter BML protests, funding parler, paying off high elected US officials, sending people to space station, building second Nord Stream line to Germany, the list goes on and on. Russia didnt go away just because USSR fell.
    - adriancr 6y ago
      I meant for all their 'investments' in smart people, where is their technology, also where are those people now that they can actually leave the country? I am aware Russia is still around and needs to be dealt with... I grew up in a communist country and have a deep dislike for Russia to put it mildly

adriancr 6y ago

Depends how hard the US will enforce the restrictions. A group breaking out of ASML would still need a company, is that company going to be in the EU, Japan, US?, if so, restrictions still apply. I'm not sure people will like moving to China to work on chip tech and possibly end up on US lists. Then there's the problem of the whole manufacturing and software tech that is likely closely guarded by ASML, and the massive capital investments to actually get anything done.

throwaway4good 6y ago
A company in Europe is not subject to US law unless it does business there. The US prevents eg. ASML in doing business with eg. Huawei by threatening to cut off ASML's access to American suppliers and customers.
- yorwba 6y ago
  A company in Europe is still subject to US pressure on their own government, even if the company itself doesn't do business in the US. The US prevented ASML from selling their EUV machines in China by pressuring the Dutch government not to renew ASML's export license, presumably by threatening more than just ASML's access to American suppliers and customers. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-insight-idUSKBN1Z50HN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-holding-usa-china-in...
  - Throwawayaerlei 6y ago
    Several things make this potentially interesting. The lasers that hit the droplets of tin in ASML's EUV machines come from the US. On the other hand, just who is going to be buying EUV machines in the future? Global Foundries has dropped out of the game of cutting edge logic, and Intel shows every sign of never being able to move past their 14 nm node. Their 10 nm node is all 193 nm UV, they're only adopting EUV for their 7 nm node, which is now also failing to deliver the goods. Samsung and TSMC can expand only so fast. Are their other types of chips which are using EUV, or are anticipated to use it in the future, like memory?

varispeed 6y ago

In the end who pays more wins. If China will offer better terms to key workers, then why they wouldn't go for it? I remember that Soviets built entire cities just for engineers all stocked with top food, entertainment and so on. China has resources to meet engineers' wildest dreams. What the West could do about it, confiscate passports?

adriancr 6y ago
Using your comparison, look where the Soviets are now...
- varispeed 6y ago
  Chinese are definitely much smarter. It was just an example what a power can do to achieve their goals.
  - adriancr 6y ago
    Both sides have considerable power. Keep in mind that the Chinese benefited from a US policy designed to help due to US interest in sidelining the USSR. That help is gradually being replaced with the hostility reserved before for the USSR. So, while China may have power to attract people* the US can do a lot more to limit/sideline China. *doubtful though as people will need to live under a dictatorship. This is ignoring what damage a bad/incompetent leader can do to China, one like Stalin since Xi is essentially removing all checks and limits of power.
- rasz 6y ago
  in Crimea, organizing counter BML protests, funding parler, paying off high elected US officials, sending people to space station, building second Nord Stream line to Germany, the list goes on and on. Russia didnt go away just because USSR fell.
  - adriancr 6y ago
    I meant for all their 'investments' in smart people, where is their technology, also where are those people now that they can actually leave the country? I am aware Russia is still around and needs to be dealt with... I grew up in a communist country and have a deep dislike for Russia to put it mildly