3 ms·

It will not be enough. There are essentially 3 leading fabs left: TSMC, Samsung, Intel. Samsung has yield issues, Intel has yield issues, TSMC somehow has no

It will not be enough. There are essentially 3 leading fabs left: TSMC, Samsung, Intel. Samsung has yield issues, Intel has yield issues, TSMC somehow has no issues. GlobalFoundries has already dropped out of the race. TSMC is selling every wafer they make, and continues to invest heavily to solidify it's lead. ALL of these fabs depend on ASML machines. IIRC last year they delivered just over half of the machines that were ordered.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
novok 6y ago
If all of these fabs rely on ASML machines, why does TSMC have its shit together while the other two do not?
- londons_explore 6y ago
  I think in 50 years we will find out that various state security services have been interfering with IC fabrication tech. Things like deliberately moving critical things by a few nanometers so entire production runs are broken...
  - dragonelite 6y ago
    Funny you say that, if my memory is correct ASML was planning on sending EUV machine to SMIC in china. Right before shipping the machine the ware house caught fire and the machine was destroyed. Then US regime came in and convinced ASML to implement a export ban for Chinese companies.
    - phkahler 6y ago
      Those games are played on both sides.
    - BostonEnginerd 6y ago
      I believe the fire was at one of their suppliers: https://www.reuters.com/article/asml-deliveries-idUSL8N1Y817P https://www.reuters.com/article/asml-deliveries-idUSL8N1Y817...
  - pwdisswordfish4 6y ago
    Stuxnet notwithstanding, if you've ever worked in a fab, you'd realize that Hanlon's razor is as pertinent as ever, maybe even moreso.
  - phkahler 6y ago
    >> I think in 50 years we will find out that various state security services have been interfering with IC fabrication tech. That would not surprise me at all. I was hired on contract once to help a system (not ICs) that was having issues and my work was directly obstructed (a coworker said sabotaged) by the guy (foreign) who designed one subsystem. At the time I though maybe it was his ego not liking that his boss brought me in to help and I was succeeding. When it became clear from multiple incidents that he was subtly sabotaging me I started to wonder this very thing. I showed evidence to our boss who said "my hands are tied" because of the corporate structure at the time. My work did make it into production and I moved on for other reasons.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- monocasa 6y ago
  Access to ASML's machines is a requirement to leading edge nodes, but not the only requirement.
  - ivankolev 6y ago
    As a matematician would say: necessary but not sufficient
  - novok 6y ago
    That's what I was implicitly asking, what is special about TSMC? What are the other parts?
    - monocasa 6y ago
      Chip foundries are extremely complex processes and it's hard to get introspection into exactly what's going on wrong at the other vendors. And if it were clear as day and night, those vendors probably would have fixed their problems and we wouldn't be having this conversation in the first lace. But if you'll allow your question to be answered with pure rumortown and supposition: Intel has engrained management issues that don't allow for reorganizing to systemically address their 10nm and under process issues as the little fiefdoms that control different parts of the process are spending more time throwing each other under the bus rather than collaborating. Samsung isn't far off from TSMC (about a single node). They fell a little behind as TSMC grabbed a bunch of their contracts (most notably Apple) which left them with not as much to capital to invest in their newer process nodes at a rather critical point. At a bare minimum they'll be kept alive by TSMC's customers as a viable second source (if you squint hard enough) as a negotiating tactic (see Nvidia's 30 series on Samsung as a shot across TSMC's bow). GloFlo canceled 7nm and under R&D. I wouldn't be surprised if they bounce back at some point when all of the EUV gotcha workarounds are more or less public knowledge and the equipment doesn't have prices on the order of a small country's GDP. If we hit fundamental limits at ~1nm and Moore's law really dies, then they should be able to jump back in with relatively less work than a newcomer and be the budget option once leading edge chips become a commodity.
      - 6y ago
- quantummkv 6y ago
  ASML machines are just a small part of the complete equation. Even if all of them use the same working ASML machines, the other parts can have the issues

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

novok 6y ago

If all of these fabs rely on ASML machines, why does TSMC have its shit together while the other two do not?

londons_explore 6y ago
I think in 50 years we will find out that various state security services have been interfering with IC fabrication tech. Things like deliberately moving critical things by a few nanometers so entire production runs are broken...
- dragonelite 6y ago
  Funny you say that, if my memory is correct ASML was planning on sending EUV machine to SMIC in china. Right before shipping the machine the ware house caught fire and the machine was destroyed. Then US regime came in and convinced ASML to implement a export ban for Chinese companies.
  - phkahler 6y ago
    Those games are played on both sides.
  - BostonEnginerd 6y ago
    I believe the fire was at one of their suppliers: https://www.reuters.com/article/asml-deliveries-idUSL8N1Y817P https://www.reuters.com/article/asml-deliveries-idUSL8N1Y817...
- pwdisswordfish4 6y ago
  Stuxnet notwithstanding, if you've ever worked in a fab, you'd realize that Hanlon's razor is as pertinent as ever, maybe even moreso.
- phkahler 6y ago
  >> I think in 50 years we will find out that various state security services have been interfering with IC fabrication tech. That would not surprise me at all. I was hired on contract once to help a system (not ICs) that was having issues and my work was directly obstructed (a coworker said sabotaged) by the guy (foreign) who designed one subsystem. At the time I though maybe it was his ego not liking that his boss brought me in to help and I was succeeding. When it became clear from multiple incidents that he was subtly sabotaging me I started to wonder this very thing. I showed evidence to our boss who said "my hands are tied" because of the corporate structure at the time. My work did make it into production and I moved on for other reasons.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
monocasa 6y ago
Access to ASML's machines is a requirement to leading edge nodes, but not the only requirement.
- ivankolev 6y ago
  As a matematician would say: necessary but not sufficient
- novok 6y ago
  That's what I was implicitly asking, what is special about TSMC? What are the other parts?
  - monocasa 6y ago
    Chip foundries are extremely complex processes and it's hard to get introspection into exactly what's going on wrong at the other vendors. And if it were clear as day and night, those vendors probably would have fixed their problems and we wouldn't be having this conversation in the first lace. But if you'll allow your question to be answered with pure rumortown and supposition: Intel has engrained management issues that don't allow for reorganizing to systemically address their 10nm and under process issues as the little fiefdoms that control different parts of the process are spending more time throwing each other under the bus rather than collaborating. Samsung isn't far off from TSMC (about a single node). They fell a little behind as TSMC grabbed a bunch of their contracts (most notably Apple) which left them with not as much to capital to invest in their newer process nodes at a rather critical point. At a bare minimum they'll be kept alive by TSMC's customers as a viable second source (if you squint hard enough) as a negotiating tactic (see Nvidia's 30 series on Samsung as a shot across TSMC's bow). GloFlo canceled 7nm and under R&D. I wouldn't be surprised if they bounce back at some point when all of the EUV gotcha workarounds are more or less public knowledge and the equipment doesn't have prices on the order of a small country's GDP. If we hit fundamental limits at ~1nm and Moore's law really dies, then they should be able to jump back in with relatively less work than a newcomer and be the budget option once leading edge chips become a commodity.
    - 6y ago
quantummkv 6y ago
ASML machines are just a small part of the complete equation. Even if all of them use the same working ASML machines, the other parts can have the issues