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Yes - while we have to be careful of making sure not to support the anti-mask/'covid is fake' hysteria because it really is a time to act in unison ... there is

by jariel 6y ago

Yes - while we have to be careful of making sure not to support the anti-mask/'covid is fake' hysteria because it really is a time to act in unison ... there is a 100% chance governments around the world are going to use this time to do things they might not otherwise do and we have to be careful. And I mean good and bad governments, with good and bad ideas. It's hard being in government, you never get to do the things you want, it's a long, compromising grind. There's no money for anything so either you raise taxes (scary), take on more debt (also scary) or print money (scary). The conservative government in the UK and liberal government in Canada have made major green announcements, a lot of this is opportunistic politiking. The 'Modern Monetary Theorists' ('debts don't matter' people) are definitely pushing hard at this time. Because every central bank and government is going into full on Keynsian spending, they're likely going to want to keep on doing that, and not reverting to the 'regular economy'. Power is hard to reliquish. In Canada, pre-covid, we saw the average house price increase in value more than the average wage in the country. That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. Even the US Fed said just a few days ago 'It's a New World Orders'. People should be spooked because with all the flux and the rules being re-written there will be power grabs, and just because people think they are benevolent, doesn't mean they are. Surely, a common denominator in humanity is the propensity for people to make power grabs when they can.

kortilla 6y ago
> That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This isn’t weird, it’s simple supply and demand. Nobody wants to build housing and people still need a place to live so they have to sacrifice more and more of their income to fight over the limited good space.
- jariel 6y ago
  "Nobody wants to build housing " Construction is 11% of the Canadian economy, and it's not just a function of housing shortage. "It's supply and demand" Technically, but that's not the best way to describe it. This is not 'more people fewer homes' It's mostly due to low interest rates, and, the very strong expectation there will be increased value. This leads to explosive valuations. Add in some foreign interest, banks making loans for ever longer periods, and it gets into an ugly cycle. It's very, very bad for the economy to get into this state because money pours into assets that don't increase productivity.
cpuguy83 6y ago
Don't forget, we just went through the same thing back in 2001, as it relates to governmental power grabs, and it is pretty much why we are where we are today.
suifbwish 6y ago
Allowing non citizens to own real estate in your country is a grave strategic error that has not yet revealed itself. In essence you open yourself up to foreign powers manipulating the price of your housing and industry markets and thus the rest of the economy as well. The fools!
- jariel 6y ago
  I don't think that the people buying property in Van are at all interested in manipulating anything - they just want to get their money out and into a safe harbour. It's a 'mistake' because of how it affects property prices. There is a war between the middle class and the working class that nobody wants to talk about because it's ultra-unpopulist. The middle class are the most likely to vote, but the working class deserve are sympathy? Not at the cost of my massively increasing home!
- 908B64B197 6y ago
  > Allowing non citizens to own real estate in your country is a grave strategic error that has not yet revealed itself. It's not so much owning real estate but real estate with the sole purpose of investing/using it as a way to park assets.
908B64B197 6y ago
> In Canada, pre-covid, we saw the average house price increase in value more than the average wage in the country. That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This is a result of an overly conservative investment landscape and out of control immigration quotas. Housing is used as a way to park money in a jurisdiction that has more predictable laws.
- jariel 6y ago
  It's mostly very low interest rates, longer term mortgages, aggressive selling on the part of banks, and the 'belief' that housing 'cannot go down'. Just like when interest rates are higher in one country than the next, money flows there. ROI is higher in housing than other sectors, money flows there. Foreign buyers and mass immigration are driving factors, but I don't think the primary issue. Another way of putting it, is that real productivity is way down, and the real economy is in deflation - stuff is getting cheaper, and the opportunities to create value are fewer and far between, the only places left are the stock market and housing etc..
  - 908B64B197 6y ago
    > longer term mortgages These exist because prices have jumped up so much relative to income, so it's a side effect of speculation really. > Another way of putting it, is that real productivity is way down, and the real economy is in deflation - stuff is getting cheaper, and the opportunities to create value are fewer and far between, the only places left are the stock market and housing etc.. That worries me. I'd rather prefer growth to come from new IP than magic assets that can never go down.

by jariel 6y ago

kortilla 6y ago

> That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This isn’t weird, it’s simple supply and demand. Nobody wants to build housing and people still need a place to live so they have to sacrifice more and more of their income to fight over the limited good space.

jariel 6y ago
"Nobody wants to build housing " Construction is 11% of the Canadian economy, and it's not just a function of housing shortage. "It's supply and demand" Technically, but that's not the best way to describe it. This is not 'more people fewer homes' It's mostly due to low interest rates, and, the very strong expectation there will be increased value. This leads to explosive valuations. Add in some foreign interest, banks making loans for ever longer periods, and it gets into an ugly cycle. It's very, very bad for the economy to get into this state because money pours into assets that don't increase productivity.

cpuguy83 6y ago

Don't forget, we just went through the same thing back in 2001, as it relates to governmental power grabs, and it is pretty much why we are where we are today.

suifbwish 6y ago

Allowing non citizens to own real estate in your country is a grave strategic error that has not yet revealed itself. In essence you open yourself up to foreign powers manipulating the price of your housing and industry markets and thus the rest of the economy as well. The fools!

jariel 6y ago
I don't think that the people buying property in Van are at all interested in manipulating anything - they just want to get their money out and into a safe harbour. It's a 'mistake' because of how it affects property prices. There is a war between the middle class and the working class that nobody wants to talk about because it's ultra-unpopulist. The middle class are the most likely to vote, but the working class deserve are sympathy? Not at the cost of my massively increasing home!
908B64B197 6y ago
> Allowing non citizens to own real estate in your country is a grave strategic error that has not yet revealed itself. It's not so much owning real estate but real estate with the sole purpose of investing/using it as a way to park assets.

908B64B197 6y ago

> In Canada, pre-covid, we saw the average house price increase in value more than the average wage in the country. That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This is a result of an overly conservative investment landscape and out of control immigration quotas. Housing is used as a way to park money in a jurisdiction that has more predictable laws.

jariel 6y ago
It's mostly very low interest rates, longer term mortgages, aggressive selling on the part of banks, and the 'belief' that housing 'cannot go down'. Just like when interest rates are higher in one country than the next, money flows there. ROI is higher in housing than other sectors, money flows there. Foreign buyers and mass immigration are driving factors, but I don't think the primary issue. Another way of putting it, is that real productivity is way down, and the real economy is in deflation - stuff is getting cheaper, and the opportunities to create value are fewer and far between, the only places left are the stock market and housing etc..
- 908B64B197 6y ago
  > longer term mortgages These exist because prices have jumped up so much relative to income, so it's a side effect of speculation really. > Another way of putting it, is that real productivity is way down, and the real economy is in deflation - stuff is getting cheaper, and the opportunities to create value are fewer and far between, the only places left are the stock market and housing etc.. That worries me. I'd rather prefer growth to come from new IP than magic assets that can never go down.