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I don't usually go off on the deep end with conspiracies, and I don't believe COVID-19 was intentionally spread, but I do think the needed response to fully co

I don't usually go off on the deep end with conspiracies, and I don't believe COVID-19 was intentionally spread, but I do think the needed response to fully control the spread of a virus creates perverse incentives for governments. Especially governments that would like to disrupt other countries which have cultures that don't like to be told what to do by their own government. COVID-19 didn't cause such trouble, but I imagine a more deadly virus could, and it could be very hard to trace the source. At the same time, I doubt this would be possible to fully control for the government that spread it, so it seems improbable too.

meddlepal 6y ago
> but I do think the needed response to fully control the spread of a virus creates perverse incentives for governments. Especially governments that would like to disrupt other countries which have cultures that don't like to be told what to do by their own government. China, Russia and every other country has been given a wonderful blueprint for absolutely disrupting the US and really entire western order. The fact nobody seems to be talking about the national security implications of this virus and what our rivals or enemies have learned is frightening. Can you imagine how fucked things would get if another virus struck the US right after we deal with Covid?
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  Smart governments would be using this pandemic as a natural experiment on their biowarfare preparations.
- trianglem 6y ago
  I don’t see it. What is the blueprint? Release a deadly virus? I think we have always known how bad that would be and there are international laws against it.
  - guram11 6y ago
    the international laws can't contain a virus outbreak, people still get murdered by guns when there's laws against using guns, the scale of the damage to economy and security to enemy nation has made this too lucrative to pass for any strategist
    - trianglem 6y ago
      What I’m trying to say is that this isn’t a new strategy people have not considered before. Biological warfare is a well known term.
- guram11 6y ago
  > The fact nobody seems to be talking about the national security implications of this virus and what our rivals or enemies have learned is frightening rest assure such scenarios are being heavily discussed else where besides here on HN you get downvotes for talking about "certain things", including early attempts to speculate/warn as the pandemic was unfolding back in February
  - jessaustin 6y ago
    ...early attempts to speculate/warn as the pandemic was unfolding back in February Providing links to such attempts would make this argument more persuasive.
- roenxi 6y ago
  > China, Russia and every other country has been given a wonderful blueprint for absolutely disrupting the US and really entire western order. Probably not. Notice something interesting about COVID - countries that were scared of SARS did fine, countries that weren't scared of SARS suffered. If you chart out the response to COVID in the West it is probably something like disease growing exponentially, response growing linearly. The mobilisation of resources over the last 11 months has been staggering. If another virus appeared now it would get demolished because everyone is already on high alert. The regulatory paths for emergency tests would be exercised recently, and it seems likely that the stupid issue where the US government basically banned private testing in the first month of the response is resolved. If it is contained early, COVID is experienced quite differently to if it is allowed to become endemic. Really, if we replayed this pandemic but people understood the risk of air travel w.r.t. disease it would go completely differently. It'll be decades before people relax again.
  - im3w1l 6y ago
    What I've learned is the game theory of this. Isolating early just means you are lonely longer, because many will defect and air travel and live it up, until the flights stop going. If the government doesn't take decisive action early, then I will chose camp defector rather than camp sucker.
jariel 6y ago
Yes - while we have to be careful of making sure not to support the anti-mask/'covid is fake' hysteria because it really is a time to act in unison ... there is a 100% chance governments around the world are going to use this time to do things they might not otherwise do and we have to be careful. And I mean good and bad governments, with good and bad ideas. It's hard being in government, you never get to do the things you want, it's a long, compromising grind. There's no money for anything so either you raise taxes (scary), take on more debt (also scary) or print money (scary). The conservative government in the UK and liberal government in Canada have made major green announcements, a lot of this is opportunistic politiking. The 'Modern Monetary Theorists' ('debts don't matter' people) are definitely pushing hard at this time. Because every central bank and government is going into full on Keynsian spending, they're likely going to want to keep on doing that, and not reverting to the 'regular economy'. Power is hard to reliquish. In Canada, pre-covid, we saw the average house price increase in value more than the average wage in the country. That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. Even the US Fed said just a few days ago 'It's a New World Orders'. People should be spooked because with all the flux and the rules being re-written there will be power grabs, and just because people think they are benevolent, doesn't mean they are. Surely, a common denominator in humanity is the propensity for people to make power grabs when they can.
- kortilla 6y ago
  > That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This isn’t weird, it’s simple supply and demand. Nobody wants to build housing and people still need a place to live so they have to sacrifice more and more of their income to fight over the limited good space.
  - jariel 6y ago
    "Nobody wants to build housing " Construction is 11% of the Canadian economy, and it's not just a function of housing shortage. "It's supply and demand" Technically, but that's not the best way to describe it. This is not 'more people fewer homes' It's mostly due to low interest rates, and, the very strong expectation there will be increased value. This leads to explosive valuations. Add in some foreign interest, banks making loans for ever longer periods, and it gets into an ugly cycle. It's very, very bad for the economy to get into this state because money pours into assets that don't increase productivity.
x87678r 6y ago
Its interesting to me when Chinese govt told everyone in Jan/Feb they have the virus under control, much of the world relaxed, but its neighbours Korea/Vietnam/Taiwan/Japan all knew to ramp up response and not believe them.
- porpoise 6y ago
  What do you have in mind by "telling everyone they have the virus under control"? I don't recall any such communication from China. If you mean the cover-up or data fudging accusations, I highly recommend the four part series in Quillette that examines the merit of these charges. It's very long, however. https://quillette.com/category/covid-19/china-syndrome-series/ https://quillette.com/category/covid-19/china-syndrome-serie... Here's the Twitter thread where the author introduced the series and gave some helpful backgrounds: https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1298053847844368386 https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1298053847844368386 As he says: "Again, I know that many of you are skeptical, but this essay has required a ridiculous amount of work and I'm really confident about the conclusions I reach, so I hope you will read it with an open-mind. I will post the other parts in this thread as they are published."
  - kortilla 6y ago
    Refuting it shouldn’t require 4 essays though unless there are a bunch of mental gymnastics involved that the author has to sell you on? What is the tldr? China didn’t do it on purpose and they were just grossly incompetent? They didn’t share data because it was all in word perfect files and they couldn’t convert it?
    - porpoise 6y ago
      I strongly recommend giving that Twitter thread a look (click the "see more tweets" to expand it), where author also explains why he had to write so many words. By "mental gymnastics" I assume you mean "needlessly drawn out argumentation/reasoning". The essays contain very little of that and are densely packed with arguments and links. Only exception is in Past IV where he gets technical explaining why China's data does not violate Benford's law as some have suggested. The tldr is that there is little evidence to support the charge of "deliberate cover-up" during initial outbreak or subsequent data fudging.
vmception 6y ago
Right, there is opportunistic behavior, always. Conspiracy theorists misconstrue independent opportunist agents as centrally planned competence. They heavily overweigh competence.
tylerjwilk00 6y ago
"Never let a good crisis go to waste” ~ Winston Churchill
- dehrmann 6y ago
  It definitely looks like China took advantage of Covid lockdowns to strengthen its hold on Hong Kong.
- burnthrow 6y ago
  Bookmarking this
frogpelt 6y ago
I think if that were to happen it would require a secret virus that there is already a vaccine for that could be used by the chosen few to protect themselves.

meddlepal 6y ago

> but I do think the needed response to fully control the spread of a virus creates perverse incentives for governments. Especially governments that would like to disrupt other countries which have cultures that don't like to be told what to do by their own government. China, Russia and every other country has been given a wonderful blueprint for absolutely disrupting the US and really entire western order. The fact nobody seems to be talking about the national security implications of this virus and what our rivals or enemies have learned is frightening. Can you imagine how fucked things would get if another virus struck the US right after we deal with Covid?

magicsmoke 6y ago
Smart governments would be using this pandemic as a natural experiment on their biowarfare preparations.
trianglem 6y ago
I don’t see it. What is the blueprint? Release a deadly virus? I think we have always known how bad that would be and there are international laws against it.
- guram11 6y ago
  the international laws can't contain a virus outbreak, people still get murdered by guns when there's laws against using guns, the scale of the damage to economy and security to enemy nation has made this too lucrative to pass for any strategist
  - trianglem 6y ago
    What I’m trying to say is that this isn’t a new strategy people have not considered before. Biological warfare is a well known term.
guram11 6y ago
> The fact nobody seems to be talking about the national security implications of this virus and what our rivals or enemies have learned is frightening rest assure such scenarios are being heavily discussed else where besides here on HN you get downvotes for talking about "certain things", including early attempts to speculate/warn as the pandemic was unfolding back in February
- jessaustin 6y ago
  ...early attempts to speculate/warn as the pandemic was unfolding back in February Providing links to such attempts would make this argument more persuasive.
roenxi 6y ago
> China, Russia and every other country has been given a wonderful blueprint for absolutely disrupting the US and really entire western order. Probably not. Notice something interesting about COVID - countries that were scared of SARS did fine, countries that weren't scared of SARS suffered. If you chart out the response to COVID in the West it is probably something like disease growing exponentially, response growing linearly. The mobilisation of resources over the last 11 months has been staggering. If another virus appeared now it would get demolished because everyone is already on high alert. The regulatory paths for emergency tests would be exercised recently, and it seems likely that the stupid issue where the US government basically banned private testing in the first month of the response is resolved. If it is contained early, COVID is experienced quite differently to if it is allowed to become endemic. Really, if we replayed this pandemic but people understood the risk of air travel w.r.t. disease it would go completely differently. It'll be decades before people relax again.
- im3w1l 6y ago
  What I've learned is the game theory of this. Isolating early just means you are lonely longer, because many will defect and air travel and live it up, until the flights stop going. If the government doesn't take decisive action early, then I will chose camp defector rather than camp sucker.

jariel 6y ago

Yes - while we have to be careful of making sure not to support the anti-mask/'covid is fake' hysteria because it really is a time to act in unison ... there is a 100% chance governments around the world are going to use this time to do things they might not otherwise do and we have to be careful. And I mean good and bad governments, with good and bad ideas. It's hard being in government, you never get to do the things you want, it's a long, compromising grind. There's no money for anything so either you raise taxes (scary), take on more debt (also scary) or print money (scary). The conservative government in the UK and liberal government in Canada have made major green announcements, a lot of this is opportunistic politiking. The 'Modern Monetary Theorists' ('debts don't matter' people) are definitely pushing hard at this time. Because every central bank and government is going into full on Keynsian spending, they're likely going to want to keep on doing that, and not reverting to the 'regular economy'. Power is hard to reliquish. In Canada, pre-covid, we saw the average house price increase in value more than the average wage in the country. That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. Even the US Fed said just a few days ago 'It's a New World Orders'. People should be spooked because with all the flux and the rules being re-written there will be power grabs, and just because people think they are benevolent, doesn't mean they are. Surely, a common denominator in humanity is the propensity for people to make power grabs when they can.

kortilla 6y ago
> That is point blank crazy. That is a weird financialisation of the economy that we don't yet understand - inflation in a fixed asset that doesn't increase productivity. This isn’t weird, it’s simple supply and demand. Nobody wants to build housing and people still need a place to live so they have to sacrifice more and more of their income to fight over the limited good space.
- jariel 6y ago
  "Nobody wants to build housing " Construction is 11% of the Canadian economy, and it's not just a function of housing shortage. "It's supply and demand" Technically, but that's not the best way to describe it. This is not 'more people fewer homes' It's mostly due to low interest rates, and, the very strong expectation there will be increased value. This leads to explosive valuations. Add in some foreign interest, banks making loans for ever longer periods, and it gets into an ugly cycle. It's very, very bad for the economy to get into this state because money pours into assets that don't increase productivity.

x87678r 6y ago

Its interesting to me when Chinese govt told everyone in Jan/Feb they have the virus under control, much of the world relaxed, but its neighbours Korea/Vietnam/Taiwan/Japan all knew to ramp up response and not believe them.

porpoise 6y ago
What do you have in mind by "telling everyone they have the virus under control"? I don't recall any such communication from China. If you mean the cover-up or data fudging accusations, I highly recommend the four part series in Quillette that examines the merit of these charges. It's very long, however. https://quillette.com/category/covid-19/china-syndrome-series/ https://quillette.com/category/covid-19/china-syndrome-serie... Here's the Twitter thread where the author introduced the series and gave some helpful backgrounds: https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1298053847844368386 https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1298053847844368386 As he says: "Again, I know that many of you are skeptical, but this essay has required a ridiculous amount of work and I'm really confident about the conclusions I reach, so I hope you will read it with an open-mind. I will post the other parts in this thread as they are published."
- kortilla 6y ago
  Refuting it shouldn’t require 4 essays though unless there are a bunch of mental gymnastics involved that the author has to sell you on? What is the tldr? China didn’t do it on purpose and they were just grossly incompetent? They didn’t share data because it was all in word perfect files and they couldn’t convert it?
  - porpoise 6y ago
    I strongly recommend giving that Twitter thread a look (click the "see more tweets" to expand it), where author also explains why he had to write so many words. By "mental gymnastics" I assume you mean "needlessly drawn out argumentation/reasoning". The essays contain very little of that and are densely packed with arguments and links. Only exception is in Past IV where he gets technical explaining why China's data does not violate Benford's law as some have suggested. The tldr is that there is little evidence to support the charge of "deliberate cover-up" during initial outbreak or subsequent data fudging.

vmception 6y ago

Right, there is opportunistic behavior, always. Conspiracy theorists misconstrue independent opportunist agents as centrally planned competence. They heavily overweigh competence.

tylerjwilk00 6y ago

"Never let a good crisis go to waste” ~ Winston Churchill

dehrmann 6y ago
It definitely looks like China took advantage of Covid lockdowns to strengthen its hold on Hong Kong.
burnthrow 6y ago
Bookmarking this

frogpelt 6y ago

I think if that were to happen it would require a secret virus that there is already a vaccine for that could be used by the chosen few to protect themselves.