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If you’re going to claim Schneier is wrong on crypto stuff, you’ll want to bring a suitcase of evidence along… How about $348 billion dollars that says he's wr

If you’re going to claim Schneier is wrong on crypto stuff, you’ll want to bring a suitcase of evidence along… How about $348 billion dollars that says he's wrong about his take on Bitcoin? Look, I get it. I respect Schneier's knowledge on encryption but he is wrong about blockchains and about Bitcoin in particular. But he wouldn't be the first establishment technologist/economist/politician to be wrong about Bitcoin. As I write this, the market cap of Bitcoin is a little over $348 billion dollars [1]; there's no way it gets to this valuation if its distributed trust model didn't work. He's making social and process arguments, not technical ones. [1]: https://bitbo.io https://bitbo.io

ashtonkem 6y ago
> How about $348 billion dollars that says he's wrong about his take on Bitcoin? Market bubbles are a thing. For a while there everyone was convinced that small plush toys were going to help them retire. The market also convinced itself for nearly a decade that "housing prices never go down". Lots of people can be wrong for a surprisingly long time.
- alwillis 6y ago
  Market bubbles are a thing. For a while there everyone was convinced that small plush toys were going to help them retire. Yes, bubbles are a thing, but Bitcoin appears to be something different. It's passed ever test and attack. It's now being taken seriously by mainstream financial professionals, CEOs of publicly traded companies and Wall Street. These facts themselves can't prove that Bitcoin is not a bubble but it does mean if you buy into that line of thinking, then encryption and math have to be suspect as well, since Bitcoin's functioning relies on them. Also, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the past 10 years in which most people didn't take it seriously: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-31/bitcoin-s-9-000-000-rise-this-decade-leaves-the-skeptics-aghast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-31/bitcoin-s...
  - oarsinsync 6y ago
    > Also, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the past 10 years in which most people didn't take it seriously You're literally describing the bubble. An asset that is worth $20k one day, and worth $6k 6 months later, is worthless to anyone except speculators, speculating on... a bubble. Disclaimer: I am long BTC.
    - alwillis 6y ago
      You're literally describing the bubble. An asset that is worth $20k one day, and worth $6k 6 months later, is worthless to anyone except speculators, speculating on... a bubble. This is short term thinking and a general mischaracterization. First, we've never seen a new form of money created in realtime, so it's hard to say how it's supposed to perform. However, nobody should expect something that will fairly soon have the same market cap as gold (about $10 trillion dollars) to not have a lot volatility as it grows. The tech darlings of today—Apple, Google, Twitter, etc. were also quite volatile as they grew. There's a lot of ups and downs for Apple as it went from darling startup to nearly going out of business in the mid-90's to a $2 trillion dollar market cap today. As you may know, the mantra in the bitcoin community is to HODL—hold on for dear life, not to time the market. For long term investors, the ups and downs don't matter. A publicly traded company that puts its treasury of $425 million into Bitcoin isn't speculating: https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin.
      - oarsinsync 6y ago
        > First, we've never seen a new form of money created in realtime, so it's hard to say how it's supposed to perform. This hasn't changed with Bitcoin. BTC is money like a gold bar, beanie baby, or block of IPv4 addresses is money. > However, nobody should expect something that will fairly soon have the same market cap as gold (about $10 trillion dollars) to not have a lot volatility as it grows. The tech darlings of today—Apple, Google, Twitter, etc. were also quite volatile as they grew. Nobody describes the tech darlings as money, or as an alternative form of currency. They're equities you can invest in, and comes with the expected volatility. > As you may know, the mantra in the bitcoin community is to HODL—hold on for dear life, not to time the market. For long term investors, the ups and downs don't matter. It's nice that there's a backcronym that's been created from a typo. I still don't invest in money, I use money to invest in assets. Disclaimer: I remain long bitcoin (since 2012)

ashtonkem 6y ago

> How about $348 billion dollars that says he's wrong about his take on Bitcoin? Market bubbles are a thing. For a while there everyone was convinced that small plush toys were going to help them retire. The market also convinced itself for nearly a decade that "housing prices never go down". Lots of people can be wrong for a surprisingly long time.

alwillis 6y ago
Market bubbles are a thing. For a while there everyone was convinced that small plush toys were going to help them retire. Yes, bubbles are a thing, but Bitcoin appears to be something different. It's passed ever test and attack. It's now being taken seriously by mainstream financial professionals, CEOs of publicly traded companies and Wall Street. These facts themselves can't prove that Bitcoin is not a bubble but it does mean if you buy into that line of thinking, then encryption and math have to be suspect as well, since Bitcoin's functioning relies on them. Also, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the past 10 years in which most people didn't take it seriously: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-31/bitcoin-s-9-000-000-rise-this-decade-leaves-the-skeptics-aghast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-31/bitcoin-s...
- oarsinsync 6y ago
  > Also, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the past 10 years in which most people didn't take it seriously You're literally describing the bubble. An asset that is worth $20k one day, and worth $6k 6 months later, is worthless to anyone except speculators, speculating on... a bubble. Disclaimer: I am long BTC.
  - alwillis 6y ago
    You're literally describing the bubble. An asset that is worth $20k one day, and worth $6k 6 months later, is worthless to anyone except speculators, speculating on... a bubble. This is short term thinking and a general mischaracterization. First, we've never seen a new form of money created in realtime, so it's hard to say how it's supposed to perform. However, nobody should expect something that will fairly soon have the same market cap as gold (about $10 trillion dollars) to not have a lot volatility as it grows. The tech darlings of today—Apple, Google, Twitter, etc. were also quite volatile as they grew. There's a lot of ups and downs for Apple as it went from darling startup to nearly going out of business in the mid-90's to a $2 trillion dollar market cap today. As you may know, the mantra in the bitcoin community is to HODL—hold on for dear life, not to time the market. For long term investors, the ups and downs don't matter. A publicly traded company that puts its treasury of $425 million into Bitcoin isn't speculating: https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin.
    - oarsinsync 6y ago
      > First, we've never seen a new form of money created in realtime, so it's hard to say how it's supposed to perform. This hasn't changed with Bitcoin. BTC is money like a gold bar, beanie baby, or block of IPv4 addresses is money. > However, nobody should expect something that will fairly soon have the same market cap as gold (about $10 trillion dollars) to not have a lot volatility as it grows. The tech darlings of today—Apple, Google, Twitter, etc. were also quite volatile as they grew. Nobody describes the tech darlings as money, or as an alternative form of currency. They're equities you can invest in, and comes with the expected volatility. > As you may know, the mantra in the bitcoin community is to HODL—hold on for dear life, not to time the market. For long term investors, the ups and downs don't matter. It's nice that there's a backcronym that's been created from a typo. I still don't invest in money, I use money to invest in assets. Disclaimer: I remain long bitcoin (since 2012)