>The problem with predicting absolute levels, is that there is a game theoretic aspect which undermines any mathematical trading strategy as soon as it is publi

>The problem with predicting absolute levels, is that there is a game theoretic aspect which undermines any mathematical trading strategy as soon as it is public. optimal game theory trading strategies don’t produce great results, and they are relatively trivial to identify. This isn't true if you're fast enough. Everybody knows how to do arbitrage but it's still extremely profitable if you're faster than everyone else. HFTs are consistently more profitable than slow trading firms, earning 40%+ returns, it's just a much more capacity-constrained form of trading so absolute returns are lower.