6 ms·

I simply do not understand the ML hype. It's absolutely ridiculous. On top of that you have Elon Musk thinking we are a few months away from SkyNet even though

I simply do not understand the ML hype. It's absolutely ridiculous. On top of that you have Elon Musk thinking we are a few months away from SkyNet even though we are decades and decades away from AGI. Each and every time I see neural networks on some "techies" blog, I wanna vomit.

mckirk 6y ago
Decades and decades? I wouldn't be so sure in such a bold prediction. One breakthrough in meta-learning and we could be well on our way. (Which is not to say that it will happen next year -- just pointing out that a development like this is nigh impossible to predict with the certainty your comment expressed.)
luc4sdreyer 6y ago
> On top of that you have Elon Musk thinking we are a few months away from SkyNet even though we are decades and decades away from AGI. The actual problem is that we don't know how long it'll be until we build an AGI. Experts put the range somewhere between 10 years and never. Building an unconstrained AGI is an existential risk, so it's important to try and narrow the confidence bands on these questions. That's one of the reasons why Musk pledged $1 billion to OpenAI.
- cambalache 6y ago
  The answer is "Not any time soon", you could also worry about giant lasers on sharks. Trying to regulate now a supposedly imminent AGI is like Morse and Edison regulating the Internet. We are doing an spectacularly lousy job of regulating what it already exists.
- qayxc 6y ago
  > Building an unconstrained AGI is an existential risk But why? So far no-one has been able to explain this to me. An AGI in at of itself is nothing but a brain-in-a-vat. The exponential increase in scientific knowledge was based on the scientific method, which replaced the ancient Greece discussion-based epistemology with a cycle of observation-hypothesis->test->observation->... An isolated AGI cannot test its predictions about the world. Since the unconstrained space of possible explanations is bigger than the space of explanations constrained by observational evidence, there is no way an AGI can gain useful knowledge without access to external observations. This means we are in full control of how "intelligent" (by whatever metric) an AGI can even get by restricting its access to information. But even unlimited access to (passive) information only gets you so far, as some models require data that cannot be obtained passively (i.e. they require deliberate controlled experiments). The final nail in the coffin of dangerous AGI is interaction with the physical world. Yes, even a toddler is a terrifying menace to millions of people if I place a button right next it that sets off a thermonuclear bomb in a city centre. But how about we just don't do that? An AGI with limited or no physical interaction with the world (directly via robot body or indirectly through remote access) can't be any more harmful and menacing than the late Stephen Hawking. There's no need to put AI on a leash, since there's a final naturally limiting factor: energy. Switch off the cooling system and your AGI has to throttle down lest it faces fiery death.
  - johnmoberg 6y ago
    Even without physical interaction, you can do a whole lot with just an internet connection. A superintelligence could identify 0-day exploits and quickly spread across thousands of computers and thus render itself immune to your idea of just switching it off. What do we do then? Sure, we can shut down the internet, but where is that going to leave us and how much damage has been done before that happens?
    - qayxc 6y ago
      > A superintelligence could identify 0-day exploits and quickly spread across thousands of computers and thus render itself immune to your idea of just switching it off. What do we do then? How about simply pulling the plug of the computer or even just the network cable? More to the point, how would an AI even learn about such mysterious exploit if it doesn't have access to an external network in the first place? Even run-of-the-mill supercomputer centres aren't directly connected to the internet for security reasons, so why change that with a potentially dangerous computer program?
      - vntok 6y ago
        How exactly do you intend to prove that an AI does not have access to an external network?
        qayxc 6y ago
        Network connectivity isn't magic: no physical connection, no network. Simple as that. Hard to imagine in this "always connected" world, but WAN is completely optional.
        vntok 6y ago
        Did you know it is perfectly possible for a computer to exfiltrate data without physical connections and without even having a networking card? A few examples: Using speakers or microphones to transmit arbitrary data via ultrasounds. Making the CPU/GPU fans vibrate in a way that sends encoded bits. Blinking the screen to emit electromagnetic waves. Transfering certain data patterns between RAM and CPU so fast that they produce oscillations, effectively converting the BUS into a GSM antenna that can emit arbitrary data over a regular cellular network. Turning the fans off to change the heat signature in a way that transmits information.... Or even simply bliking a light to send data through regular lightwaves? Scientists discover new ways to exfiltrate data basically every other year, how can you be so certain you've thought of every possible way?
thekyle 6y ago
Well neural networks have been used in lots of genuinely useful products. I use voice dictation on my phone all the time for example, and I don't think I could ever go back to manually cataloging all of my photos (I use Google Photos, but Microsoft Photos and Apple Photos also use ML).
mlthoughts2018 6y ago
Your reaction seems quite extreme and vitriolic. My job is to be the director of machine learning at a medium-sized ecommerce company. My company uses machine learning to solve lots of problems in search & customer recommendation, image & text processing, time series forecasting, and a few “backend” support models for things like phishing / fraud detection and gaining efficiencies in customer support operations. I am happy to answer any questions I can about why machine learning has been a continued growth and investment area for my company and how we thoroughly validate business value when deciding whether to adopt ML solutions. We use modern neural networks in probably about 10-15% of the solutions we operate.
noobermin 6y ago
Were you around when every company hawked a blockchain of a type? It's a marketing fling right now, that's mostly what it is for.

mckirk 6y ago

Decades and decades? I wouldn't be so sure in such a bold prediction. One breakthrough in meta-learning and we could be well on our way. (Which is not to say that it will happen next year -- just pointing out that a development like this is nigh impossible to predict with the certainty your comment expressed.)

luc4sdreyer 6y ago

> On top of that you have Elon Musk thinking we are a few months away from SkyNet even though we are decades and decades away from AGI. The actual problem is that we don't know how long it'll be until we build an AGI. Experts put the range somewhere between 10 years and never. Building an unconstrained AGI is an existential risk, so it's important to try and narrow the confidence bands on these questions. That's one of the reasons why Musk pledged $1 billion to OpenAI.

cambalache 6y ago
The answer is "Not any time soon", you could also worry about giant lasers on sharks. Trying to regulate now a supposedly imminent AGI is like Morse and Edison regulating the Internet. We are doing an spectacularly lousy job of regulating what it already exists.
qayxc 6y ago
> Building an unconstrained AGI is an existential risk But why? So far no-one has been able to explain this to me. An AGI in at of itself is nothing but a brain-in-a-vat. The exponential increase in scientific knowledge was based on the scientific method, which replaced the ancient Greece discussion-based epistemology with a cycle of observation-hypothesis->test->observation->... An isolated AGI cannot test its predictions about the world. Since the unconstrained space of possible explanations is bigger than the space of explanations constrained by observational evidence, there is no way an AGI can gain useful knowledge without access to external observations. This means we are in full control of how "intelligent" (by whatever metric) an AGI can even get by restricting its access to information. But even unlimited access to (passive) information only gets you so far, as some models require data that cannot be obtained passively (i.e. they require deliberate controlled experiments). The final nail in the coffin of dangerous AGI is interaction with the physical world. Yes, even a toddler is a terrifying menace to millions of people if I place a button right next it that sets off a thermonuclear bomb in a city centre. But how about we just don't do that? An AGI with limited or no physical interaction with the world (directly via robot body or indirectly through remote access) can't be any more harmful and menacing than the late Stephen Hawking. There's no need to put AI on a leash, since there's a final naturally limiting factor: energy. Switch off the cooling system and your AGI has to throttle down lest it faces fiery death.
- johnmoberg 6y ago
  Even without physical interaction, you can do a whole lot with just an internet connection. A superintelligence could identify 0-day exploits and quickly spread across thousands of computers and thus render itself immune to your idea of just switching it off. What do we do then? Sure, we can shut down the internet, but where is that going to leave us and how much damage has been done before that happens?
  - qayxc 6y ago
    > A superintelligence could identify 0-day exploits and quickly spread across thousands of computers and thus render itself immune to your idea of just switching it off. What do we do then? How about simply pulling the plug of the computer or even just the network cable? More to the point, how would an AI even learn about such mysterious exploit if it doesn't have access to an external network in the first place? Even run-of-the-mill supercomputer centres aren't directly connected to the internet for security reasons, so why change that with a potentially dangerous computer program?
    - vntok 6y ago
      How exactly do you intend to prove that an AI does not have access to an external network?
      - qayxc 6y ago
        Network connectivity isn't magic: no physical connection, no network. Simple as that. Hard to imagine in this "always connected" world, but WAN is completely optional.
        vntok 6y ago
        Did you know it is perfectly possible for a computer to exfiltrate data without physical connections and without even having a networking card? A few examples: Using speakers or microphones to transmit arbitrary data via ultrasounds. Making the CPU/GPU fans vibrate in a way that sends encoded bits. Blinking the screen to emit electromagnetic waves. Transfering certain data patterns between RAM and CPU so fast that they produce oscillations, effectively converting the BUS into a GSM antenna that can emit arbitrary data over a regular cellular network. Turning the fans off to change the heat signature in a way that transmits information.... Or even simply bliking a light to send data through regular lightwaves? Scientists discover new ways to exfiltrate data basically every other year, how can you be so certain you've thought of every possible way?

thekyle 6y ago

Well neural networks have been used in lots of genuinely useful products. I use voice dictation on my phone all the time for example, and I don't think I could ever go back to manually cataloging all of my photos (I use Google Photos, but Microsoft Photos and Apple Photos also use ML).

mlthoughts2018 6y ago

Your reaction seems quite extreme and vitriolic. My job is to be the director of machine learning at a medium-sized ecommerce company. My company uses machine learning to solve lots of problems in search & customer recommendation, image & text processing, time series forecasting, and a few “backend” support models for things like phishing / fraud detection and gaining efficiencies in customer support operations. I am happy to answer any questions I can about why machine learning has been a continued growth and investment area for my company and how we thoroughly validate business value when deciding whether to adopt ML solutions. We use modern neural networks in probably about 10-15% of the solutions we operate.

noobermin 6y ago

Were you around when every company hawked a blockchain of a type? It's a marketing fling right now, that's mostly what it is for.