4 ms·

BlackBerry Dead by 2012

20 points by showngo 15y ago

michaelpinto 15y ago
I disagree with the author: The BlackBerry market is made up of corporate users who write emails that go on for miles. What makes the device unique is they physical keyboard, which makes it easy to write those monster emails. And in my experience of hanging out with Blackberry users that's really what they use the device for — the ability to make a phone call seems secondary (and the ability to look at the web isn't even there). While the other brands appeal to the consumer market, corporations still love their BlackBerry in the way they love Windows. If RIM was smart they'd get acquired by Microsoft, Oracle, Dell or IBM — someone who is a top tier player in the corporate space.
- fertel 15y ago
  That argument doesn't hold much water anymore. I have friends who work at some of the top investment banks - JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are two of which I know are offering the iPhone as a choice instead of the blackberry. Also, a lawyer friend at a top tier law firm was offered the iPhone as an alternative as well - granted he didn't take it. A decision he regrets. It's only a matter of time - no one wants to carry 2 devices and their employers are keen to it.
  - hello_moto 15y ago
    Meh, your argument doesn't hold much water either. My friend just dump iPhone for BB because well... his friends are using BBM. My father works in Bank and him and his friends and all of his business partners don't bother to look at iPhone/iPod/iPad.
  - danzheng 15y ago
    Here is another data point, my finance, who's in sales and a Droid user for a year, recently got a Blackberry for work. She didn't like it at all. Blackberry is not going away anytime soon due long enterprise sales cycle. But like fertel said, it's only a matter of time.
    - fractallyte 15y ago
      That's an interesting typo... Do you lavish a lot of money on her? ;-)
  - mortenjorck 15y ago
    I'd be very curious to see some real-world speed tests (not just one of the "I'm typing on an iPhone; now I'm typing on a Bold" videos) with a decent sample size and current hardware. I can type faster now on my iPhone than I ever imagined possible on a mobile device, thanks to three things: autocorrect, adaptive key hitboxes (look up the patent; it's pretty cool), and the lack of tactile feedback. Yes, lack of tactile feedback. Merely making contact with a surface takes slightly less time than pressing the travel distance of a key, and it adds up. In my experience, the loss in accuracy from lack of tactility is more than compensated for by the iPhone keyboard's advantages.
- schmittz 15y ago
  I actually just got off the phone with my dad who has had a BlackBerry for the last 10 years and just replaced his with an Android phone (Samsung something, I believe) last week. He said he finds it much easier to use and likes it more. It's well noted that brand preference is largely irrational and thus any amount of anecdotes means very little. What it does mean is that BlackBerry is likely to continue to decline in market share unless they revamp their OS to be more app friendly (and redo their app store to make it worthwhile), but they will probably never go away. My best guess would be that they act stubbornly (as large companies often do) and decline in market share for awhile before deciding to sell to a larger player.
rorrr 15y ago
Blackberry is better for dealing with emails than any other phone. Plus RIM is doing very well financially.
melvinram 15y ago
And Microsoft was suppose to be dead by 2010, or was that 200x or 201x? Declining from King status? Probably Dead? I put that right up there with world is ending in 2012. PS: I am an iPhone user... no fan of Blackberry... but I find it a bit nuts when people make broadstroked arguements without any real support.
AndyNemmity 15y ago
Just had a phone upgrade at my work. Got to choose from Iphone and Blackberry. Went with Blackberry. Many people thought my decision was crazy. Except, I actually work from my Blackberry. I write emails, and ssh with it. I need an actual real keypad, and not a toy. For people like me, an Iphone is worthless.
- count 15y ago
  Have you used an iphone for more than 5 minutes? I email, ssh, irc, twitter, facebook, etc. with it all damn day. It's not a toy. You may like it better, which is fine, and a personal decision. Your conclusion that the iphone is worthless for 'people like you' is pretty far from the demonstrated truth though.
  - 1337p337 15y ago
    I have a work-issued iPhone, but use my personal phone anyway. Not to say that the iPhone is useless, but it irks me if I have to look at my phone to do things with it, like staring at the keyboard (and missing its autocomplete mis-fires) or looking at it to change songs while driving. So, not to speak for the person you're replying to, but the iPhone does happen to be useless for people like me.
  - deleted 15y ago
    [deleted]
martian 15y ago
The product feels like it's lacking innovation, and among a crowd of hackers & builders, it makes sense that this article would gain traction. I've heard rumors that RIM will be adopting Android in the coming months. Regardless of this claim, a company with as much money and momentum can't be discounted so easily. It is foolish to claim that a Goliath is dead until you have his head in your hands. Let's think for a moment about other tech giants: HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and certainly Apple --whose resurrection story is legend.
georgieporgie 15y ago
Isn't Blackberry the only company providing guaranteed messaging with latency caps? (Verizon might, as well) This was an issue for the operations team at a place where I worked. You couldn't use, say, T-Mobile because an SMS notification about a broken server might never arrive, or might arrive after an arbitrary delay.
spoiledtechie 15y ago
Another thing the author fails to see is that Blackberry users are EXTREMELY loyal. They love their devices and do an awesome job keeping with their fan base. Its just like a cult movie. The user base stays loyal and the blackberry will stay to be cult and only grow in popularity.
pvodsevhcm 15y ago
Why does the author pick 2012, as opposed to 2011 or 2013? There's no explanation on the timeline, which is so prominent in the headline, just two pictures. This is a pretty pointless article to make it onto HN's front page.
- 1337p337 15y ago
  It's just two pictures, and it ignores the rest of the Blackberry line-up, which includes touch-only devices and slide-outs. I was expecting some announcement from RIM based on the title, and was disappointed to find this content-free article by an iPhone platform-bigot. (Disclaimer: I'm not using or a fan of either device.)
rchowe 15y ago
The author is saying that they won't be relevant and doesn't give any context. I believe they won't be relevant in the consumer market, because I think most people would rather have a droid or an iPhone. However in the enterprise market they're bought by IT, and RIM knows who's buying the phone, not who's using the phone.
- count 15y ago
  Of the 5 or 6 fortune 100's that I have contacts at, ALL of them are switching or have switched to providing iphones instead of blackberrys by default. ALL of them started this within the last year. 2012 is a rash prediction, given their scale, I agree. I do think that Apple is eating their lunch though.
contextfree 15y ago
BlackBerry might be dead by next month for all I know, but the author of this blog post has shown no particular insight or knowledge that gives me any reason to think his understanding of RIM's prospects is any better than my own (which is nonexistent). I don't like articles like this, they're just shallow regurgitations of prevailing groupthink (in this guy's circles); if they're right, it's by accident.
digamber_kamat 15y ago
Blackberry is struggling, its true. But then like an individual too there are ups and downs in the life of an organization too. Yes, organizations die too but their resilience is pretty strong they don't die easy. Blackberry is not bring disruptive innovations instead they chose iterative development that is because their customers need that kind of thing. Besides RIM is positioning itself well in the emerging markets like India where blackberry seems to be a new craze. IMO before writing off RIM we need to wait for at least 5 more years to see how it performs. Also, it's supposedly bad performances must be reflected in the balance-sheet as well which is not the case currently. Playbook is beating both Galaxy and Xoom to get the second position which is not bad at all.
unknown1313 15y ago
All that really has to be said is look at the HUGE and active memberships at sites like crackberry.com; obviously every one is going to have their prefs. and opinions, but the author needs to do a little more research on who is using the phones, at least before declaring one will be dead by such and such date.

20 points by showngo 15y ago

I disagree with the author: The BlackBerry market is made up of corporate users who write emails that go on for miles. What makes the device unique is they physical keyboard, which makes it easy to write those monster emails. And in my experience of hanging out with Blackberry users that's really what they use the device for — the ability to make a phone call seems secondary (and the ability to look at the web isn't even there). While the other brands appeal to the consumer market, corporations still love their BlackBerry in the way they love Windows. If RIM was smart they'd get acquired by Microsoft, Oracle, Dell or IBM — someone who is a top tier player in the corporate space.

fertel 15y ago
That argument doesn't hold much water anymore. I have friends who work at some of the top investment banks - JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are two of which I know are offering the iPhone as a choice instead of the blackberry. Also, a lawyer friend at a top tier law firm was offered the iPhone as an alternative as well - granted he didn't take it. A decision he regrets. It's only a matter of time - no one wants to carry 2 devices and their employers are keen to it.
- hello_moto 15y ago
  Meh, your argument doesn't hold much water either. My friend just dump iPhone for BB because well... his friends are using BBM. My father works in Bank and him and his friends and all of his business partners don't bother to look at iPhone/iPod/iPad.
- danzheng 15y ago
  Here is another data point, my finance, who's in sales and a Droid user for a year, recently got a Blackberry for work. She didn't like it at all. Blackberry is not going away anytime soon due long enterprise sales cycle. But like fertel said, it's only a matter of time.
  - fractallyte 15y ago
    That's an interesting typo... Do you lavish a lot of money on her? ;-)
- mortenjorck 15y ago
  I'd be very curious to see some real-world speed tests (not just one of the "I'm typing on an iPhone; now I'm typing on a Bold" videos) with a decent sample size and current hardware. I can type faster now on my iPhone than I ever imagined possible on a mobile device, thanks to three things: autocorrect, adaptive key hitboxes (look up the patent; it's pretty cool), and the lack of tactile feedback. Yes, lack of tactile feedback. Merely making contact with a surface takes slightly less time than pressing the travel distance of a key, and it adds up. In my experience, the loss in accuracy from lack of tactility is more than compensated for by the iPhone keyboard's advantages.
schmittz 15y ago
I actually just got off the phone with my dad who has had a BlackBerry for the last 10 years and just replaced his with an Android phone (Samsung something, I believe) last week. He said he finds it much easier to use and likes it more. It's well noted that brand preference is largely irrational and thus any amount of anecdotes means very little. What it does mean is that BlackBerry is likely to continue to decline in market share unless they revamp their OS to be more app friendly (and redo their app store to make it worthwhile), but they will probably never go away. My best guess would be that they act stubbornly (as large companies often do) and decline in market share for awhile before deciding to sell to a larger player.

rorrr 15y ago

Blackberry is better for dealing with emails than any other phone. Plus RIM is doing very well financially.

melvinram 15y ago

And Microsoft was suppose to be dead by 2010, or was that 200x or 201x? Declining from King status? Probably Dead? I put that right up there with world is ending in 2012. PS: I am an iPhone user... no fan of Blackberry... but I find it a bit nuts when people make broadstroked arguements without any real support.

AndyNemmity 15y ago

Just had a phone upgrade at my work. Got to choose from Iphone and Blackberry. Went with Blackberry. Many people thought my decision was crazy. Except, I actually work from my Blackberry. I write emails, and ssh with it. I need an actual real keypad, and not a toy. For people like me, an Iphone is worthless.

count 15y ago
Have you used an iphone for more than 5 minutes? I email, ssh, irc, twitter, facebook, etc. with it all damn day. It's not a toy. You may like it better, which is fine, and a personal decision. Your conclusion that the iphone is worthless for 'people like you' is pretty far from the demonstrated truth though.
- 1337p337 15y ago
  I have a work-issued iPhone, but use my personal phone anyway. Not to say that the iPhone is useless, but it irks me if I have to look at my phone to do things with it, like staring at the keyboard (and missing its autocomplete mis-fires) or looking at it to change songs while driving. So, not to speak for the person you're replying to, but the iPhone does happen to be useless for people like me.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]

martian 15y ago

The product feels like it's lacking innovation, and among a crowd of hackers & builders, it makes sense that this article would gain traction. I've heard rumors that RIM will be adopting Android in the coming months. Regardless of this claim, a company with as much money and momentum can't be discounted so easily. It is foolish to claim that a Goliath is dead until you have his head in your hands. Let's think for a moment about other tech giants: HP, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, and certainly Apple --whose resurrection story is legend.

georgieporgie 15y ago

Isn't Blackberry the only company providing guaranteed messaging with latency caps? (Verizon might, as well) This was an issue for the operations team at a place where I worked. You couldn't use, say, T-Mobile because an SMS notification about a broken server might never arrive, or might arrive after an arbitrary delay.

spoiledtechie 15y ago

Another thing the author fails to see is that Blackberry users are EXTREMELY loyal. They love their devices and do an awesome job keeping with their fan base. Its just like a cult movie. The user base stays loyal and the blackberry will stay to be cult and only grow in popularity.

pvodsevhcm 15y ago

Why does the author pick 2012, as opposed to 2011 or 2013? There's no explanation on the timeline, which is so prominent in the headline, just two pictures. This is a pretty pointless article to make it onto HN's front page.

1337p337 15y ago
It's just two pictures, and it ignores the rest of the Blackberry line-up, which includes touch-only devices and slide-outs. I was expecting some announcement from RIM based on the title, and was disappointed to find this content-free article by an iPhone platform-bigot. (Disclaimer: I'm not using or a fan of either device.)

rchowe 15y ago

The author is saying that they won't be relevant and doesn't give any context. I believe they won't be relevant in the consumer market, because I think most people would rather have a droid or an iPhone. However in the enterprise market they're bought by IT, and RIM knows who's buying the phone, not who's using the phone.

count 15y ago
Of the 5 or 6 fortune 100's that I have contacts at, ALL of them are switching or have switched to providing iphones instead of blackberrys by default. ALL of them started this within the last year. 2012 is a rash prediction, given their scale, I agree. I do think that Apple is eating their lunch though.

contextfree 15y ago

BlackBerry might be dead by next month for all I know, but the author of this blog post has shown no particular insight or knowledge that gives me any reason to think his understanding of RIM's prospects is any better than my own (which is nonexistent). I don't like articles like this, they're just shallow regurgitations of prevailing groupthink (in this guy's circles); if they're right, it's by accident.

digamber_kamat 15y ago

Blackberry is struggling, its true. But then like an individual too there are ups and downs in the life of an organization too. Yes, organizations die too but their resilience is pretty strong they don't die easy. Blackberry is not bring disruptive innovations instead they chose iterative development that is because their customers need that kind of thing. Besides RIM is positioning itself well in the emerging markets like India where blackberry seems to be a new craze. IMO before writing off RIM we need to wait for at least 5 more years to see how it performs. Also, it's supposedly bad performances must be reflected in the balance-sheet as well which is not the case currently. Playbook is beating both Galaxy and Xoom to get the second position which is not bad at all.

unknown1313 15y ago

All that really has to be said is look at the HUGE and active memberships at sites like crackberry.com; obviously every one is going to have their prefs. and opinions, but the author needs to do a little more research on who is using the phones, at least before declaring one will be dead by such and such date.