6 ms·
Is virus exposure a threshold mechanism (some form of initial defense exists that gets saturated at some point) or is exposure to more virions simply the equiva
by usrusr 6y ago
Is virus exposure a threshold mechanism (some form of initial defense exists that gets saturated at some point) or is exposure to more virions simply the equivalent of a higher number of lottery tickets from the virus perspective?
I seem to remember having read wording in one of the many papers that we surely all skimmed in 2020 that looked suspiciously like a statement declaring side in a scientific community that still considered both possible. (something like "We are working with the Independent Probability per Virion Assumption here" or something like that.
- gnusty_gnurc 6y agoI get the sense that it's reasonable, and perhaps understood, that the magnitude of exposure is correlated with severity.
- colechristensen 6y agoIs there really much of a difference between one and the other?
- tgb 6y agoThe "lottery ticket" model is additive: 100 minor exposures adds up. The "threshold" model isn't: 100 minor exposures is no risk.
- knaq 6y agoIt's not a threshold. For getting infected, it's like lottery tickets. For severity of infection, a bunch of "winning" lottery tickets make it difficult for your immune system to catch up. Getting a large exposure is like giving the virus multiple viral generations of a head start without being noticed by the immune system.
- nikolay 6y agoIt's a combo of both, actually!
- pizza 6y agoI believe the other salient factor is the coefficient of my-immune-system-tends-to-implode per unit of viral load, which may or may not vary a lot between different people. Although at this point maybe it's hard to tell if the different outcomes are more to do with differences in processing the virus or differences in magnitude of viral load at time of acquisition.