No, I think the outcomes changed. I think the outcomes changed to be more chaotic. I can generate two possible narratives that seem plausible to me: 1) Republic

No, I think the outcomes changed. I think the outcomes changed to be more chaotic. I can generate two possible narratives that seem plausible to me: 1) Republicans change their opinion after seeing the President getting Covid and realizing their vulnerability. 2) Further entrenching their belief that if the President can recover, so can they. In reality, I think both narratives apply to different populations. The question becomes how many people changed their belief and how many didn't. I think 50/50 is a fair (and simple) assumption that doesn't change your expectation of the election. With regards to your Boeing example. Seeing multiple bad events clearly negatively impacts Boeing. But Trump getting Covid is not clearly a negative to his election chances. You would have to convince me by polling many Republicans to see how their views changes pre/post Trump getting infected. Without having polled the people, I think a 50/50 split is a fair assumption. Of course, I would update my belief in the presence of relevant data.