As optimistic I am about crypto, I think this type of modelling (BTC at 300k in a year) is taking the price action around previous Bitcoin cycles and naively ex

As optimistic I am about crypto, I think this type of modelling (BTC at 300k in a year) is taking the price action around previous Bitcoin cycles and naively extrapolating it into the future. I think in reality there are many holders who would sell way before that, and not many buyers at levels approaching anything like that. If Bitcoin replaced gold completely as a store of value, and had gold’s marketcap - maybe. I don’t think we’ll get there that soon. Also, so far Bitcoin has acted more like a risk asset than a store of value, like mentioned in the article. Central bank action continues to be in favour of the “sound money” story of Bitcoin, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Bitcoin also dives with the next stock market correction. Dalio has some legit concerns, I think we can bypass the points about bitcoin as everyday currency because that's clearly not going to happen for a while. But regulation of Bitcoin could certainly happen if it becomes large enough a parallel financial system. I hope it won’t be regulated negatively but wouldn’t rule it out. I also think Dalio is open to having his mind changed, it’s his style to get different perspectives. Bridgewater missed COVID pretty bad, I don’t think he wants to be seen as the old guy who missed Bitcoin if it turns out even more successful.