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No, people want to get rich quick and that’s it. Nobody is buying Bitcoin as a store of value. Everybody buys because they put a bet on the narrative "Bitcoin c

by WA 6y ago

No, people want to get rich quick and that’s it. Nobody is buying Bitcoin as a store of value. Everybody buys because they put a bet on the narrative "Bitcoin could easily be worth 100k-200k". This is 100% speculation and nothing else.

hiimtroymclure 6y ago
Most do for sure. I'd say 95% of the people I introduced to crypto feel this way. However, the same people who were into BTC back in the early 2010s are the same people who see the fed print 22% of all USD bills in 2020 alone as something very concerning. BTC is not my only investment against hyper inflation but its for sure always been in my portfolio.
dharma1 6y ago
As optimistic I am about crypto, I think this type of modelling (BTC at 300k in a year) is taking the price action around previous Bitcoin cycles and naively extrapolating it into the future. I think in reality there are many holders who would sell way before that, and not many buyers at levels approaching anything like that. If Bitcoin replaced gold completely as a store of value, and had gold’s marketcap - maybe. I don’t think we’ll get there that soon. Also, so far Bitcoin has acted more like a risk asset than a store of value, like mentioned in the article. Central bank action continues to be in favour of the “sound money” story of Bitcoin, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Bitcoin also dives with the next stock market correction. Dalio has some legit concerns, I think we can bypass the points about bitcoin as everyday currency because that's clearly not going to happen for a while. But regulation of Bitcoin could certainly happen if it becomes large enough a parallel financial system. I hope it won’t be regulated negatively but wouldn’t rule it out. I also think Dalio is open to having his mind changed, it’s his style to get different perspectives. Bridgewater missed COVID pretty bad, I don’t think he wants to be seen as the old guy who missed Bitcoin if it turns out even more successful.
sunshinerag 6y ago
I am buying bitcoin as a store of value. Be sparing in your use of "Nobody".

by WA 6y ago

hiimtroymclure 6y ago

Most do for sure. I'd say 95% of the people I introduced to crypto feel this way. However, the same people who were into BTC back in the early 2010s are the same people who see the fed print 22% of all USD bills in 2020 alone as something very concerning. BTC is not my only investment against hyper inflation but its for sure always been in my portfolio.

dharma1 6y ago

As optimistic I am about crypto, I think this type of modelling (BTC at 300k in a year) is taking the price action around previous Bitcoin cycles and naively extrapolating it into the future. I think in reality there are many holders who would sell way before that, and not many buyers at levels approaching anything like that. If Bitcoin replaced gold completely as a store of value, and had gold’s marketcap - maybe. I don’t think we’ll get there that soon. Also, so far Bitcoin has acted more like a risk asset than a store of value, like mentioned in the article. Central bank action continues to be in favour of the “sound money” story of Bitcoin, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Bitcoin also dives with the next stock market correction. Dalio has some legit concerns, I think we can bypass the points about bitcoin as everyday currency because that's clearly not going to happen for a while. But regulation of Bitcoin could certainly happen if it becomes large enough a parallel financial system. I hope it won’t be regulated negatively but wouldn’t rule it out. I also think Dalio is open to having his mind changed, it’s his style to get different perspectives. Bridgewater missed COVID pretty bad, I don’t think he wants to be seen as the old guy who missed Bitcoin if it turns out even more successful.

sunshinerag 6y ago

I am buying bitcoin as a store of value. Be sparing in your use of "Nobody".