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But if you can’t do anything with Bitcoin, this is pure speculation. At some point it’s gonna pop.

by azinman2 6y ago

ravenstine 6y ago
That's like saying you can't do anything with gold bars.
- azinman2 6y ago
  Well they actually have real value as a material in industry, jewelry, but largely hold value because people say they do. You’re right that there are similarities here, and given gold is also constantly mined it’s often not a great investment. However there are thousands of years of precedent saying this rare thing holds some value; we have no such precedent with Bitcoin.
  - drivingmenuts 6y ago
    The wired thing about jewelry is that it’s only real value is mostly in the first sale. After that, it’s rare to get more than the value of its component parts. Jewelers hit estate sales and pick up quite nice gold and silver diamond jewelry for dirt cheap so they can melt the metal into something else and will wind up with jars of small diamonds just sitting around because they’re too small to recut.
    - gruez 6y ago
      >The wired thing about jewelry is that it’s only real value is mostly in the first sale. After that, it’s rare to get more than the value of its component parts. Is there a reason for this? Why can't you take a piece of used jewelry, clean it, and resell it? Do they go out of fashion?
      - optimalsolver 6y ago
        https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-you-ever-tried-to-sell-a-diamond/304575/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-yo...
anonytrary 6y ago
> you can’t do anything with Bitcoin "Keeping track of who owns what" is the "something" that Bitcoin purports to do.
- postalrat 6y ago
  I keep track of who wears my socks. If you want in I'll lease you a pair for 5k a month
  - erulabs 6y ago
    Now keep track of billions of socks and be incapable of lying and you’re onto something!
    - sunshinerag 6y ago
      why? easy? Just trust me. I track all the socks in the world. Promise I wouldn't fake new socks, or new people with socks. Just trust me.
    - postalrat 6y ago
      I only lease out 100 socks. If you fail to pay the lease you keep the socks but now they belong to you and are no longer my socks.
- gweinberg 6y ago
  It's a purported utility, but it doesn't really explain the valuation.
  - anonytrary 6y ago
    Yes, it does. Bitcoin's market cap is ~350b, which is about the same as JPM's market cap, which is exactly what the purported utility aims to replace. Doesn't seem far off to me. Bitcoin aims to make paper money obsolete, which aims to make banks obsolete. Bitcoin is therefore undervalued, assuming it is a valid replacement. $100k per BTC in 5 years is not unreasonable. 5 years ago, if someone said $20k per BTC in 5 years, you would call them crazy.

But if you can’t do anything with Bitcoin, this is pure speculation. At some point it’s gonna pop.

ravenstine 6y ago

That's like saying you can't do anything with gold bars.

azinman2 6y ago
Well they actually have real value as a material in industry, jewelry, but largely hold value because people say they do. You’re right that there are similarities here, and given gold is also constantly mined it’s often not a great investment. However there are thousands of years of precedent saying this rare thing holds some value; we have no such precedent with Bitcoin.
- drivingmenuts 6y ago
  The wired thing about jewelry is that it’s only real value is mostly in the first sale. After that, it’s rare to get more than the value of its component parts. Jewelers hit estate sales and pick up quite nice gold and silver diamond jewelry for dirt cheap so they can melt the metal into something else and will wind up with jars of small diamonds just sitting around because they’re too small to recut.
  - gruez 6y ago
    >The wired thing about jewelry is that it’s only real value is mostly in the first sale. After that, it’s rare to get more than the value of its component parts. Is there a reason for this? Why can't you take a piece of used jewelry, clean it, and resell it? Do they go out of fashion?
    - optimalsolver 6y ago
      https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-you-ever-tried-to-sell-a-diamond/304575/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-yo...

anonytrary 6y ago

> you can’t do anything with Bitcoin "Keeping track of who owns what" is the "something" that Bitcoin purports to do.

postalrat 6y ago
I keep track of who wears my socks. If you want in I'll lease you a pair for 5k a month
- erulabs 6y ago
  Now keep track of billions of socks and be incapable of lying and you’re onto something!
  - sunshinerag 6y ago
    why? easy? Just trust me. I track all the socks in the world. Promise I wouldn't fake new socks, or new people with socks. Just trust me.
  - postalrat 6y ago
    I only lease out 100 socks. If you fail to pay the lease you keep the socks but now they belong to you and are no longer my socks.
gweinberg 6y ago
It's a purported utility, but it doesn't really explain the valuation.
- anonytrary 6y ago
  Yes, it does. Bitcoin's market cap is ~350b, which is about the same as JPM's market cap, which is exactly what the purported utility aims to replace. Doesn't seem far off to me. Bitcoin aims to make paper money obsolete, which aims to make banks obsolete. Bitcoin is therefore undervalued, assuming it is a valid replacement. $100k per BTC in 5 years is not unreasonable. 5 years ago, if someone said $20k per BTC in 5 years, you would call them crazy.