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For this particular disease, my personal threshold is something like, "A vaccine exists, and most of the vulnerable population at least has access to it." This

For this particular disease, my personal threshold is something like, "A vaccine exists, and most of the vulnerable population at least has access to it." This kind of lockdown seems wildly inappropriate for most other yearly diseases.

deleted 6y ago
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hcurtiss 6y ago
That threshold has become more realistic as vaccines have taken much less time than usual, but it’s a decent suggestion, and in my view is precisely the kind of conversation decision makers should be having publicly. There are tradeoffs to weigh, and some humility is warranted. Instead, the Oregon governor (at least) specializes in shaming and finger wagging, which I think exacerbates hostility to her proposals.
tzs 6y ago
> For this particular disease, my personal threshold is something like, "A vaccine exists, and most of the vulnerable population at least has access to it." As far as masks and distancing go in the US, we might need to keep it up longer than that. Consider the annual flu vaccinations in the US. Typically less than 50% of adults get it even though they are widely available and are fully covered under most health plans (and are not hard to get for free if you do not have health insurance). There are a lot of people who believe the propaganda about COVID being no worse than a mild flu, so I expect that a lot of the people who do not get flu vaccinations will also not get COVID vaccinations. There are also a fair number of people who believe COVID is hoax. I expect that a lot of them won't get a COVID vaccination even if they do get flu vaccinations. Sure, once you get vaccinated and wait the couple of weeks or whatever for it to provide protection for you, there is no medical reason that you need to wear a mask or distance any more. But I don't think it is going to be practical to have a mask/distancing mandate that only applies to people who are not vaccinated (or immune through already having had it), at least in places that are open to the general public. Unless we are just going to write them off, those people who fell for the propaganda still need to be wearing masks and distancing when they are around other such people, and so to have a practical mask/distancing mandate that will work with them we will probably need it to apply to everyone, at least in places open to the general public.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

hcurtiss 6y ago

That threshold has become more realistic as vaccines have taken much less time than usual, but it’s a decent suggestion, and in my view is precisely the kind of conversation decision makers should be having publicly. There are tradeoffs to weigh, and some humility is warranted. Instead, the Oregon governor (at least) specializes in shaming and finger wagging, which I think exacerbates hostility to her proposals.

tzs 6y ago

> For this particular disease, my personal threshold is something like, "A vaccine exists, and most of the vulnerable population at least has access to it." As far as masks and distancing go in the US, we might need to keep it up longer than that. Consider the annual flu vaccinations in the US. Typically less than 50% of adults get it even though they are widely available and are fully covered under most health plans (and are not hard to get for free if you do not have health insurance). There are a lot of people who believe the propaganda about COVID being no worse than a mild flu, so I expect that a lot of the people who do not get flu vaccinations will also not get COVID vaccinations. There are also a fair number of people who believe COVID is hoax. I expect that a lot of them won't get a COVID vaccination even if they do get flu vaccinations. Sure, once you get vaccinated and wait the couple of weeks or whatever for it to provide protection for you, there is no medical reason that you need to wear a mask or distance any more. But I don't think it is going to be practical to have a mask/distancing mandate that only applies to people who are not vaccinated (or immune through already having had it), at least in places that are open to the general public. Unless we are just going to write them off, those people who fell for the propaganda still need to be wearing masks and distancing when they are around other such people, and so to have a practical mask/distancing mandate that will work with them we will probably need it to apply to everyone, at least in places open to the general public.