If you’re trying to quantify your uncertainty about who will win the election, a poll would only be part of it. You want to be able to combine disparate sources

If you’re trying to quantify your uncertainty about who will win the election, a poll would only be part of it. You want to be able to combine disparate sources of information. Maybe there is preference falsification and you want to incorporate as some sort of prior. As things get further from simple sampling from a population the frequency interpretation makes less and less sense to me.