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> Under the plan, everyone who wants to would have been vaccinated by early April. It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out, once vaccines

> Under the plan, everyone who wants to would have been vaccinated by early April. It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out, once vaccines start to become widely available. I would hope that some "social inertia" will help convince people who are "on the fence" or otherwise skeptical about getting vaccinated, as they see more folks get it and the case numbers hopefully start to flatten out or drop.

lawn 6y ago
I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome.
- aphextron 6y ago
  >I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome. The real crazies are a (regrettably) loud minority. We only need around a 75% vaccination rate with a 95% effective vaccine to get to herd immunity. I've no worries at all we'll be there by the end of summer.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    That seems high to me. If R0 is 2, shouldn't a 50% vaccination rate (with 100% effectiveness) get you to an effective R0 of 1?
    - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
      No, because people engage in riskier behavior when they start to feel safer, driving up R0.
      - sieabahlpark 6y ago
        I guess that's a risk for those willing to make it
      - retox 6y ago
        By riskier you mean normal.
        bobthepanda 6y ago
        Well, we’ve been restricted for so long I would expect a portion of the population to be much more out and about than they were even pre-COVID as a sort of overcorrection.
        derekp7 6y ago
        On the other hand, a number of people have gotten so used to the lock down and risk aversion protocols, it may be a long time before they feel comfortable letting anyone else in their personal space.
        mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
        It may or may not also be more "normal" as you put it, but that's not at all relevant to what we're discussing here.
pbuzbee 6y ago
Couldn't it play out the other way? As case numbers drop, people think that the vaccination isn't necessary anymore?
- dgritsko 6y ago
  Yeah, I think this is a definite possibility too. The next few months should be interesting.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  With a 99.9% survivability rate for people under 50, it really isn't necessary for a large portion of the population.
  - muttled 6y ago
    You have to think beyond yourself. There will be at-risk groups that are also not able to take the vaccine but are protected by closing the infection vectors from others.
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      Those at-risk groups should be prioritized for the vaccine and the rest of the population should be free to choose for theirselves, since they have sovereignty over their own bodies.
      - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
        But they don't have sovereignty over their neighbors. If you want to make that argument, fine, but they have to not infect anybody if they get it. They can't cough in public, ever. They can't sneeze. They can't even breathe. Doing so is affecting other peoples' sovereignty over their bodies.
        chrisco255 6y ago
        No. Diseases are nothing new in the world, my friend. Individual rights did not die just because a novel coronavirus about 20-30% deadlier than the flu showed up. Sorry, these debates were settled when far worse diseases were around than Covid-19, including smallpox, polio, measles, yellow fever, Rocky Mountain fever, Spanish flu, tuberculosis, HIV, and more. You don't get to dictate what others do with their bodies. Your risk factor is on YOU. If you want the vaccine, which is supposedly only 90% effective (notably less than the 99.9% effectiveness of young immune systems), then you can get the vaccine. End of story.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
commonturtle 6y ago
If you can get ~30% of the population to vaccinate (especially the more vulnerable groups, who will have more incentive to do so), things will already get much better. We won't be at the herd immunity threshold but I think all but the riskiest things could go back to normal.
benmmurphy 6y ago
As far as I know it is not encouraged and possibly not available for people in my age range to receive flu vaccines from the NHS. I have a higher mortality risk from the flu than from covid. From a purely selfish point of view I don't understand why the flu vaccine is difficult to get but the covid vaccine will be easy. It might make sense when you take into account the wider social costs but the situation seems weird to me. I'm not anti-vaxx. I actually want to get a flu vaccine based on advice from my doctor in Australia but I haven't because it looks like it would be an ordeal to get one from the NHS.
- flarg 6y ago
  Flu vaccines are becoming more available in the UK from next week and most chemists will give you the jab. Given the UK government's track record and the impact of border delays due to Brexit it is unlikely that Covid jabs will start en masse until April and will then proceed so slowly as to fail to achieve any chance of herd immunity. There is also a growing Facebook fed anti vaxx movement in the UK which is troubling and the govt is unlikely to compel vaccination.
- cbhl 6y ago
  Flu vaccines have to be incubated in chicken eggs, so production capacity is limited by the rate at which chickens lay eggs. Whereas the COVID vaccines are based on mRNA
- jackweirdy 6y ago
  Ask your GP, there are lots of guidelines about who is automatically entitled to it mainly based on age, pregnancy, and similar but if your gp agrees you should have it because of your risk you can get it regardless. More detail: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/flu-influenza-vaccine/ https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/flu-influenza-vac... If not a high street pharmacist can give you one for ~£8
grecy 6y ago
I am in no way anti-vax. I personally have a lot more than the average person does, because of my adventures around the world. I've always felt comfortable getting vaccines in the past, and I encourage others to do so. In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine I am more than a little concerned it has been rushed into mass production, and we don't have years of data about side effects and possible long-term consequences. We have certainly screwed up enough things in the past to put doubt in my mind we can rush something like this and not make a mistake we won't know about for 5-10 years. I was talking to a Doctor friend last night who said she has concerns because a couple of the vaccines use genetic material. I'm not saying I won't get it, but I doubt I'll be one of the first to rush, and I may drag my heels a little to see what happens.

lawn 6y ago

I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome.

aphextron 6y ago
>I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome. The real crazies are a (regrettably) loud minority. We only need around a 75% vaccination rate with a 95% effective vaccine to get to herd immunity. I've no worries at all we'll be there by the end of summer.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  That seems high to me. If R0 is 2, shouldn't a 50% vaccination rate (with 100% effectiveness) get you to an effective R0 of 1?
  - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
    No, because people engage in riskier behavior when they start to feel safer, driving up R0.
    - sieabahlpark 6y ago
      I guess that's a risk for those willing to make it
    - retox 6y ago
      By riskier you mean normal.
      - bobthepanda 6y ago
        Well, we’ve been restricted for so long I would expect a portion of the population to be much more out and about than they were even pre-COVID as a sort of overcorrection.
        derekp7 6y ago
        On the other hand, a number of people have gotten so used to the lock down and risk aversion protocols, it may be a long time before they feel comfortable letting anyone else in their personal space.
      - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
        It may or may not also be more "normal" as you put it, but that's not at all relevant to what we're discussing here.

pbuzbee 6y ago

Couldn't it play out the other way? As case numbers drop, people think that the vaccination isn't necessary anymore?

dgritsko 6y ago
Yeah, I think this is a definite possibility too. The next few months should be interesting.
chrisco255 6y ago
With a 99.9% survivability rate for people under 50, it really isn't necessary for a large portion of the population.
- muttled 6y ago
  You have to think beyond yourself. There will be at-risk groups that are also not able to take the vaccine but are protected by closing the infection vectors from others.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Those at-risk groups should be prioritized for the vaccine and the rest of the population should be free to choose for theirselves, since they have sovereignty over their own bodies.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      But they don't have sovereignty over their neighbors. If you want to make that argument, fine, but they have to not infect anybody if they get it. They can't cough in public, ever. They can't sneeze. They can't even breathe. Doing so is affecting other peoples' sovereignty over their bodies.
      - chrisco255 6y ago
        No. Diseases are nothing new in the world, my friend. Individual rights did not die just because a novel coronavirus about 20-30% deadlier than the flu showed up. Sorry, these debates were settled when far worse diseases were around than Covid-19, including smallpox, polio, measles, yellow fever, Rocky Mountain fever, Spanish flu, tuberculosis, HIV, and more. You don't get to dictate what others do with their bodies. Your risk factor is on YOU. If you want the vaccine, which is supposedly only 90% effective (notably less than the 99.9% effectiveness of young immune systems), then you can get the vaccine. End of story.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

commonturtle 6y ago

If you can get ~30% of the population to vaccinate (especially the more vulnerable groups, who will have more incentive to do so), things will already get much better. We won't be at the herd immunity threshold but I think all but the riskiest things could go back to normal.

benmmurphy 6y ago

As far as I know it is not encouraged and possibly not available for people in my age range to receive flu vaccines from the NHS. I have a higher mortality risk from the flu than from covid. From a purely selfish point of view I don't understand why the flu vaccine is difficult to get but the covid vaccine will be easy. It might make sense when you take into account the wider social costs but the situation seems weird to me. I'm not anti-vaxx. I actually want to get a flu vaccine based on advice from my doctor in Australia but I haven't because it looks like it would be an ordeal to get one from the NHS.

flarg 6y ago
Flu vaccines are becoming more available in the UK from next week and most chemists will give you the jab. Given the UK government's track record and the impact of border delays due to Brexit it is unlikely that Covid jabs will start en masse until April and will then proceed so slowly as to fail to achieve any chance of herd immunity. There is also a growing Facebook fed anti vaxx movement in the UK which is troubling and the govt is unlikely to compel vaccination.
cbhl 6y ago
Flu vaccines have to be incubated in chicken eggs, so production capacity is limited by the rate at which chickens lay eggs. Whereas the COVID vaccines are based on mRNA
jackweirdy 6y ago
Ask your GP, there are lots of guidelines about who is automatically entitled to it mainly based on age, pregnancy, and similar but if your gp agrees you should have it because of your risk you can get it regardless. More detail: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/flu-influenza-vaccine/ https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/flu-influenza-vac... If not a high street pharmacist can give you one for ~£8

grecy 6y ago

I am in no way anti-vax. I personally have a lot more than the average person does, because of my adventures around the world. I've always felt comfortable getting vaccines in the past, and I encourage others to do so. In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine I am more than a little concerned it has been rushed into mass production, and we don't have years of data about side effects and possible long-term consequences. We have certainly screwed up enough things in the past to put doubt in my mind we can rush something like this and not make a mistake we won't know about for 5-10 years. I was talking to a Doctor friend last night who said she has concerns because a couple of the vaccines use genetic material. I'm not saying I won't get it, but I doubt I'll be one of the first to rush, and I may drag my heels a little to see what happens.