4 ms·

NuScale power just got approval a month or two ago, and is working on their small (50MW reactors)

by briffle 6y ago

CogentHedgehog 6y ago
NuScale just lost a bunch of their backers for their project after announcing several years of delays and cost overruns. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/several-us-utilities-back-out-deal-build-novel-nuclear-power-plant https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/several-us-utilities... > announced that completion of the project would be delayed by 3 years to 2030. It also estimates the cost would climb from $4.2 billion to $6.1 billion. Unfortunately this is a very old story with the nuclear industry: they consistently over-promise and under-deliver. The closer projects get to completion, the more costs grow and the further the completion date gets pushed out. This has been true of most of the recent builds in the US and Europe. The tech is fine, but there seems to be something wrong with the industry.
epistasis 6y ago
And they can't find customers. Their target price, of $55/MWh, would probably be acceptable if delivered today. But when you look at hybrid solar/battery projects, we are already getting close to $55/MWh for fully dispatchable energy, that doesn't have to be run 24x7 like nuclear but actually matches the load curve of the grid. Seriously, there are battery projects being deployed now, attached to solar, with a storage cost of $80/MWh, and energy cost of $20/MWh. Since overnight demand is small compared to daytime, only about half of the energy needs to be stored. That averages out to $60/MWh, today. In 5 years it will be something like $40-$50. In 10 years, when NuScale deploys, the cost of solar+storage will be $30-40/MWh. And it might even get cheaper. NuScale may be useful for polar locations without much wind, but I don't foresee them having a huge addressable market.

4 ms·

NuScale power just got approval a month or two ago, and is working on their small (50MW reactors)

by briffle 6y ago

NuScale power just got approval a month or two ago, and is working on their small (50MW reactors)

CogentHedgehog 6y ago
NuScale just lost a bunch of their backers for their project after announcing several years of delays and cost overruns. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/several-us-utilities-back-out-deal-build-novel-nuclear-power-plant https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/several-us-utilities... > announced that completion of the project would be delayed by 3 years to 2030. It also estimates the cost would climb from $4.2 billion to $6.1 billion. Unfortunately this is a very old story with the nuclear industry: they consistently over-promise and under-deliver. The closer projects get to completion, the more costs grow and the further the completion date gets pushed out. This has been true of most of the recent builds in the US and Europe. The tech is fine, but there seems to be something wrong with the industry.
epistasis 6y ago
And they can't find customers. Their target price, of $55/MWh, would probably be acceptable if delivered today. But when you look at hybrid solar/battery projects, we are already getting close to $55/MWh for fully dispatchable energy, that doesn't have to be run 24x7 like nuclear but actually matches the load curve of the grid. Seriously, there are battery projects being deployed now, attached to solar, with a storage cost of $80/MWh, and energy cost of $20/MWh. Since overnight demand is small compared to daytime, only about half of the energy needs to be stored. That averages out to $60/MWh, today. In 5 years it will be something like $40-$50. In 10 years, when NuScale deploys, the cost of solar+storage will be $30-40/MWh. And it might even get cheaper. NuScale may be useful for polar locations without much wind, but I don't foresee them having a huge addressable market.