4 ms·

I'm in a rush, so hopefully someone can dig up some actual links to scientific papers, but current immunity from naturally infected people has stayed strong and

by Exmoor 6y ago

I'm in a rush, so hopefully someone can dig up some actual links to scientific papers, but current immunity from naturally infected people has stayed strong and shows no sign of weakening. The immune response from the vaccination has at least as strong, so in all likelihood we're looking at very long response.

chaostheory 6y ago
Doesn't immunity only last several months though?
- anoncake 6y ago
  No, it stays strong and shows no sign of weakening.
  - chaostheory 6y ago
    According to several studies, that's not true. "Two new studies demonstrate how severity of disease is predictive of longer-lasting antibody production and detail how immunity wanes over time but may exist for up to 7 months." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-show-long-term-covid-19-immune-response https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola... There's also evidence of re-infection https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
    - anoncake 6y ago
      You (or rather the writer of that news piece) apparently confused antibodies and immunity. Not only are antibodies not the only mechanism of the adaptive immune system, T cells are harder to test for but equally important. Also it's normal that the body doesn't keep them around indefinitely after an exception. It creates memory cells and quickly recreates antibodies and T cells when needed. There is evidence that reinfection does occasionally happen, but none that it happens frequently enough to worry about. The paper you've linked mentions four cases.
      - chaostheory 6y ago
        You're right, but are there any peer reviewed papers that back up your argument? > The paper you've linked mentions four cases. Those are confirmed cases. That doesn't mean there's only 4 total.
        anoncake 6y ago
        I don't know if there are any papers for Covid in particular but it's how the immune system works in general. AFAIK there is no reason to assume it Covid differs in that respect. > Those are confirmed cases. That doesn't mean there's only 4 total. I'm sure there are more, but how many? There have been hundreds of millions of infections (according to the WHO). If there are a few dozen or even a thousand reinfections among them, it's not a phenomenon we need to worry about. We could assume that reinfections are common even without any evidence for or against, but then we are playing something akin to Pascal's wager. Also, I think if reinfections were common, by now we would very likely have evidence for that by now.
    - hobofan 6y ago
      Your first link only focuses on (the easier to test) antibodies, and doesn't mention T cell memory, which is the much more important factor in long-term immunity. And of course there are going to be individual cases of reinfections with 55+ million cases.
      - chaostheory 6y ago
        Your logic checks out, but are there peer reviewed papers that back up your argument? This isn't my field, so I'm not aware of any.
        hobofan 6y ago
        There is one right in the list on the CDC page you linked[0]. There is also a recent Nature paper[1] that shows that T cells levels are stable for at least the first 100 days they observed. I don't know of a specific link to send you for that, but that usually indicates T cell immunity on the timescale of multiple years (otherwise some drop in levels would have already been visible in the observed time period). [0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7427556 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7427556 [1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01143-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01143-2
- caturopath 6y ago
  No, that's just been a popular conspiracy theory.
jMyles 6y ago
> The immune response from the vaccination has at least as strong Is that true? I always thought it was at most as strong (eg, David Katz says so here: https://youtu.be/YLLENema1Co?t=462 https://youtu.be/YLLENema1Co?t=462), but I'm seeing this assertion float around also. Which is it?

by Exmoor 6y ago

chaostheory 6y ago

Doesn't immunity only last several months though?

anoncake 6y ago
No, it stays strong and shows no sign of weakening.
- chaostheory 6y ago
  According to several studies, that's not true. "Two new studies demonstrate how severity of disease is predictive of longer-lasting antibody production and detail how immunity wanes over time but may exist for up to 7 months." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-show-long-term-covid-19-immune-response https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola... There's also evidence of re-infection https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
  - anoncake 6y ago
    You (or rather the writer of that news piece) apparently confused antibodies and immunity. Not only are antibodies not the only mechanism of the adaptive immune system, T cells are harder to test for but equally important. Also it's normal that the body doesn't keep them around indefinitely after an exception. It creates memory cells and quickly recreates antibodies and T cells when needed. There is evidence that reinfection does occasionally happen, but none that it happens frequently enough to worry about. The paper you've linked mentions four cases.
    - chaostheory 6y ago
      You're right, but are there any peer reviewed papers that back up your argument? > The paper you've linked mentions four cases. Those are confirmed cases. That doesn't mean there's only 4 total.
      - anoncake 6y ago
        I don't know if there are any papers for Covid in particular but it's how the immune system works in general. AFAIK there is no reason to assume it Covid differs in that respect. > Those are confirmed cases. That doesn't mean there's only 4 total. I'm sure there are more, but how many? There have been hundreds of millions of infections (according to the WHO). If there are a few dozen or even a thousand reinfections among them, it's not a phenomenon we need to worry about. We could assume that reinfections are common even without any evidence for or against, but then we are playing something akin to Pascal's wager. Also, I think if reinfections were common, by now we would very likely have evidence for that by now.
  - hobofan 6y ago
    Your first link only focuses on (the easier to test) antibodies, and doesn't mention T cell memory, which is the much more important factor in long-term immunity. And of course there are going to be individual cases of reinfections with 55+ million cases.
    - chaostheory 6y ago
      Your logic checks out, but are there peer reviewed papers that back up your argument? This isn't my field, so I'm not aware of any.
      - hobofan 6y ago
        There is one right in the list on the CDC page you linked[0]. There is also a recent Nature paper[1] that shows that T cells levels are stable for at least the first 100 days they observed. I don't know of a specific link to send you for that, but that usually indicates T cell immunity on the timescale of multiple years (otherwise some drop in levels would have already been visible in the observed time period). [0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7427556 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7427556 [1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01143-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01143-2
caturopath 6y ago
No, that's just been a popular conspiracy theory.

jMyles 6y ago

> The immune response from the vaccination has at least as strong Is that true? I always thought it was at most as strong (eg, David Katz says so here: https://youtu.be/YLLENema1Co?t=462 https://youtu.be/YLLENema1Co?t=462), but I'm seeing this assertion float around also. Which is it?