That misses the point. I want to know whether +14% is a 1,3, or 5 sigma event. For that calculation stddev is in the denominator and whether it's 2%, 4% or 6%

That misses the point. I want to know whether +14% is a 1,3, or 5 sigma event. For that calculation stddev is in the denominator and whether it's 2%, 4% or 6% makes a huge difference, notable or not.