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Key point: > The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 6 No

Key point: > The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 6 November 2020 was 14.3% higher than the five-year average. But it is good to know that the measures to control COVID-19 are also suppressing flu and pneumonia (though not enough to make up for COVID-19 mortality).

lvass 6y ago
A whole week of data!?
- renewiltord 6y ago
  Oh god just click through, dude. Why are so many hn commenters obsessed with these banalities https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... I should warn you that you might have to scroll a little, lest you find yourself writing a comment in response before you read section 2.
  - CogentHedgehog 6y ago
    Yup, the data is right there. HN commenters just want to "but aktsualllly..." The spike in deaths from the UK's first wave is pretty visible in the graphs, and the spike from cases we're seeing now will probably take a few weeks to show up in the data.
dmichulke 6y ago
Also, they didn't write the standard deviation, so that 14% is kind of useless
- himinlomax 6y ago
  Over a stable population of 10s of millions of people, it's unlikely to be notable.
  - dmichulke 6y ago
    That misses the point. I want to know whether +14% is a 1,3, or 5 sigma event. For that calculation stddev is in the denominator and whether it's 2%, 4% or 6% makes a huge difference, notable or not.
deleted 6y ago
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JoshuaDavid 6y ago
I really hope that is "14.3% higher than the 5 year average mortality rate for the first week of November from 2015 - 2019" not "14.3% higher than the 5 year average mortality rate for the entire time period from the start of 2015 to the end of 2019." Because mortality is pretty strongly seasonal. Edit: "So far this year, up to 6 November, 517,650 people have died from any cause in England and Wales. This is 58,555 more than the five-year average." So the definitely seasonality adjusted excess mortality for the year to date is about 12.7% (or 12.4% possibly, depending on how the leap day was handled).
mjbeswick 6y ago
It's still very subjective. The thing is that people that are dying of COVID-19 would very likely have died in the new few years, so if you compare deaths over the the last few years to a previous time period their would be very little difference.

lvass 6y ago

A whole week of data!?

renewiltord 6y ago
Oh god just click through, dude. Why are so many hn commenters obsessed with these banalities https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... I should warn you that you might have to scroll a little, lest you find yourself writing a comment in response before you read section 2.
- CogentHedgehog 6y ago
  Yup, the data is right there. HN commenters just want to "but aktsualllly..." The spike in deaths from the UK's first wave is pretty visible in the graphs, and the spike from cases we're seeing now will probably take a few weeks to show up in the data.

dmichulke 6y ago

Also, they didn't write the standard deviation, so that 14% is kind of useless

himinlomax 6y ago
Over a stable population of 10s of millions of people, it's unlikely to be notable.
- dmichulke 6y ago
  That misses the point. I want to know whether +14% is a 1,3, or 5 sigma event. For that calculation stddev is in the denominator and whether it's 2%, 4% or 6% makes a huge difference, notable or not.

deleted 6y ago

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JoshuaDavid 6y ago

I really hope that is "14.3% higher than the 5 year average mortality rate for the first week of November from 2015 - 2019" not "14.3% higher than the 5 year average mortality rate for the entire time period from the start of 2015 to the end of 2019." Because mortality is pretty strongly seasonal. Edit: "So far this year, up to 6 November, 517,650 people have died from any cause in England and Wales. This is 58,555 more than the five-year average." So the definitely seasonality adjusted excess mortality for the year to date is about 12.7% (or 12.4% possibly, depending on how the leap day was handled).

mjbeswick 6y ago

It's still very subjective. The thing is that people that are dying of COVID-19 would very likely have died in the new few years, so if you compare deaths over the the last few years to a previous time period their would be very little difference.