5 ms·

Fauci made a recommendation based on data at the time. Which was later demonstrated incorrect, he colleted updated data and changed his recommendation. Remembe

by edoceo 6y ago

Fauci made a recommendation based on data at the time. Which was later demonstrated incorrect, he colleted updated data and changed his recommendation. Remember when a smart guy changed his opinion and you stopped harping on him for being kinda wrong that one time? Me neither.

renewiltord 6y ago
Nah, the data were there in January. We know because Taiwan CDC made the right call. In some things in life, correcting yourself isn't enough. You just have to be right the first time. A quarter million Americans died for this mistake.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Fauci recommending masks in January would likely have wound up with the same end result - "no!" from a substantial portion of the population.
  - renewiltord 6y ago
    If it has no impact on the outcome, then why perform the intervention at all? The truth is that even masking for the remainder of the population is very useful, and it's more useful the earlier it is.
    - protoman3000 6y ago
      Remember how Toilet Paper seemed to have run out because of excess buying? The already small stock of masks would have been consumed much much earlier than how it happened.
      - renewiltord 6y ago
        So make more. Reuse. Remove price limits. Taiwan was producing one per capita every 3 days in March. I'm sure we can come up with infinite hypotheticals. But East Asia beat this. So we don't have to hypothesize. We know what the right approach is and they showed us in freaking February!
        protoman3000 6y ago
        The production lines were not there yet and you can't scale available lines up easily. Asia was ready because their leaders saw the threat of SARS. Meanwhile European countries actually lowered ICU capacities because they were deemed "too costly".
        renewiltord 6y ago
        They went from near nothing to full capacity in a little over a month. I read the articles as it was happening. I watched it happen in March but I genuinely had this belief that the US bureaucracy were competent (even if the elected government wasn't). I was so confident they were competent, I didn't even short the market. That was rapidly torn apart and I think it was worth the cost I paid to learn that lesson. I posted a timeline here on HN https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22776614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22776614 I am going to copy it for you to show you how the A-players do it: New Year's Eve: Rumours of viral pneumonia in Wuhan. All inbound flights from Wuhan subject to inspection Jan 5: All Wuhan travelers exhibiting upper respiratory inspections are now subject to screening Jan 20: First positive test Jan 21: Mask export ban, production ramp-up Jan 31: Taiwanese government forced monopsony on masks (1/3 reserved for healthcare personnel). Announces rationing first week of Feb Feb 2: Taiwanese defence personnel dispatched to bolster staffing at mask factories Feb 6: Mask rationing starts Feb 15: Mask production by end of month projected to be 10 million / day. Taiwanese population: 24 million Mar 9: Mask production 9.2 million / day Mar 16: Production 10 million / day Mar 22: Production 12.6 million / day April 3. Taiwan: Population 24 million. Density: 649 people/sq.km. First case: Jan 20. Cases: 348. Deaths: 5 April 3. Florida: Population 21.5 million. 136.5 people/sq.km. First case: Mar 7. Cases: 10268. Deaths: 170 Did we have to make the choice between the economy and lives? Did we have to choose between grandma and the dollar? Could policy have changed the outcome? You decide.
        protoman3000 6y ago
        > They went from near nothing to full capacity in a little over a month How can that be true if masks were already a highly available everyday product in metropolitan areas in e.g. China. Many people wore masks in winter almost every day even if they were not sick due to lower air quality. It is indeed true that they raised already existing capacities massively up, but compared to what has been produced in the US or in Europe they already had a starting point magnitudes higher.
- reducesuffering 6y ago
  Seriously, how are people covering for this? When Fauci's / CDC call on masks went out early in the pandemic, HN collectively gasped on multiple threads about wtf were they thinking and linked tons of research evidence on why they were effective. Many of us knew that it was a terrible, terrible call.
jdminhbg 6y ago
> Fauci made a recommendation based on data at the time. It's incredible the amount of slack this total incompetent has gotten, just by contrast of standing next to the president. There was no change in available data on mask efficacy on either side of the great switch in recommendations.

by edoceo 6y ago

renewiltord 6y ago

Nah, the data were there in January. We know because Taiwan CDC made the right call. In some things in life, correcting yourself isn't enough. You just have to be right the first time. A quarter million Americans died for this mistake.

ceejayoz 6y ago
Fauci recommending masks in January would likely have wound up with the same end result - "no!" from a substantial portion of the population.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  If it has no impact on the outcome, then why perform the intervention at all? The truth is that even masking for the remainder of the population is very useful, and it's more useful the earlier it is.
  - protoman3000 6y ago
    Remember how Toilet Paper seemed to have run out because of excess buying? The already small stock of masks would have been consumed much much earlier than how it happened.
    - renewiltord 6y ago
      So make more. Reuse. Remove price limits. Taiwan was producing one per capita every 3 days in March. I'm sure we can come up with infinite hypotheticals. But East Asia beat this. So we don't have to hypothesize. We know what the right approach is and they showed us in freaking February!
      - protoman3000 6y ago
        The production lines were not there yet and you can't scale available lines up easily. Asia was ready because their leaders saw the threat of SARS. Meanwhile European countries actually lowered ICU capacities because they were deemed "too costly".
        renewiltord 6y ago
        They went from near nothing to full capacity in a little over a month. I read the articles as it was happening. I watched it happen in March but I genuinely had this belief that the US bureaucracy were competent (even if the elected government wasn't). I was so confident they were competent, I didn't even short the market. That was rapidly torn apart and I think it was worth the cost I paid to learn that lesson. I posted a timeline here on HN https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22776614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22776614 I am going to copy it for you to show you how the A-players do it: New Year's Eve: Rumours of viral pneumonia in Wuhan. All inbound flights from Wuhan subject to inspection Jan 5: All Wuhan travelers exhibiting upper respiratory inspections are now subject to screening Jan 20: First positive test Jan 21: Mask export ban, production ramp-up Jan 31: Taiwanese government forced monopsony on masks (1/3 reserved for healthcare personnel). Announces rationing first week of Feb Feb 2: Taiwanese defence personnel dispatched to bolster staffing at mask factories Feb 6: Mask rationing starts Feb 15: Mask production by end of month projected to be 10 million / day. Taiwanese population: 24 million Mar 9: Mask production 9.2 million / day Mar 16: Production 10 million / day Mar 22: Production 12.6 million / day April 3. Taiwan: Population 24 million. Density: 649 people/sq.km. First case: Jan 20. Cases: 348. Deaths: 5 April 3. Florida: Population 21.5 million. 136.5 people/sq.km. First case: Mar 7. Cases: 10268. Deaths: 170 Did we have to make the choice between the economy and lives? Did we have to choose between grandma and the dollar? Could policy have changed the outcome? You decide.
        protoman3000 6y ago
        > They went from near nothing to full capacity in a little over a month How can that be true if masks were already a highly available everyday product in metropolitan areas in e.g. China. Many people wore masks in winter almost every day even if they were not sick due to lower air quality. It is indeed true that they raised already existing capacities massively up, but compared to what has been produced in the US or in Europe they already had a starting point magnitudes higher.
reducesuffering 6y ago
Seriously, how are people covering for this? When Fauci's / CDC call on masks went out early in the pandemic, HN collectively gasped on multiple threads about wtf were they thinking and linked tons of research evidence on why they were effective. Many of us knew that it was a terrible, terrible call.

jdminhbg 6y ago

> Fauci made a recommendation based on data at the time. It's incredible the amount of slack this total incompetent has gotten, just by contrast of standing next to the president. There was no change in available data on mask efficacy on either side of the great switch in recommendations.