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Wouldn't Trump being diagnosed with Covid be more akin to the first (or second) 737 Max crashing and its effect on Boeing? This was not an expected outcome and
by ghayes 6y ago
Wouldn't Trump being diagnosed with Covid be more akin to the first (or second) 737 Max crashing and its effect on Boeing? This was not an expected outcome and would be likely to shift the entire distribution of outcomes. If you're going to argue that it truly kept outcomes identical, then I would likely just disagree with your forecast and call it a day.
- hervature 6y agoNo, I think the outcomes changed. I think the outcomes changed to be more chaotic. I can generate two possible narratives that seem plausible to me: 1) Republicans change their opinion after seeing the President getting Covid and realizing their vulnerability. 2) Further entrenching their belief that if the President can recover, so can they. In reality, I think both narratives apply to different populations. The question becomes how many people changed their belief and how many didn't. I think 50/50 is a fair (and simple) assumption that doesn't change your expectation of the election. With regards to your Boeing example. Seeing multiple bad events clearly negatively impacts Boeing. But Trump getting Covid is not clearly a negative to his election chances. You would have to convince me by polling many Republicans to see how their views changes pre/post Trump getting infected. Without having polled the people, I think a 50/50 split is a fair assumption. Of course, I would update my belief in the presence of relevant data.