Except it's not really an analog at all. Microsoft didn't lose their antitrust case because of any of that - they lost because they were paying OEMs to not ins

Except it's not really an analog at all. Microsoft didn't lose their antitrust case because of any of that - they lost because they were paying OEMs to not install software - and if they did, they were punishing them. The rebate scheme was really central to the issue. Then, they didn't clearly say "you can't install software" or "everyone who wants to install software has to do X" they just made installing Netscape or removing IE functionally broken. That's really different than "everyone who wants to make money through my platform has to pay me 30%". The place Apple might actually have trouble would be Spotify - where Apple is competing with their product, allowing subscriptions in-app for their own platform, but not for Spotify unless they cough up 30% or whatever.