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So the distribution amongst vaccinated group cases seems to be roughly the same as on the control group. In my armchair viroligy ponderings I have come to the c
by usrusr 6y ago
So the distribution amongst vaccinated group cases seems to be roughly the same as on the control group. In my armchair viroligy ponderings I have come to the conclusion that this is the best possible outcome because both directions of possible distribution shifts could be bad news: if all detected vaccinated cases would be hard cases it would indicate that the vaccine has much lower efficacy than stated with those that require the hardest to be saved by a vaccine, whereas an overrepresentation of weak cases would suggest that much more weak cases get through, that the vaccine would not prevent infection very much but only keep an infection from becoming a heavy case (weak cases are very likely to remain undetected in both the vaccinated group and in the control group). A downshift in severity would be just fine for the vaccinated, but with a virus like SARS-COV-2 that is very good at asymptomatic spread it would not contribute much to herd immunity, increasing risk for the non-vaccinated (because the lucky ones would drop all precautions.