6 ms·

This reflects my personal view of the "real" economy. Nearly everyone around me is absolutely destitute. Meanwhile, equities are trading at all time highs. Ther

by caeril 6y ago

This reflects my personal view of the "real" economy. Nearly everyone around me is absolutely destitute. Meanwhile, equities are trading at all time highs. There is an enormous disconnect, at least in my specific area.

x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
The government a while back injected TRILLIONS into the stock market in a bid to keep the stock market afloat. Acts like that have gone far to increase the difference in fortunes between main street and wall street.
- mint2 6y ago
  I think generalizing to the “government” as a whole is wrong. There’s a clearly define part of the government that is unwilling to do anything. Every effort has died in the senate.
  - chordalkeyboard 6y ago
    Thats not the part of government that injected $trillions into the stock market, is it?
    - mint2 6y ago
      The part that did that has been pleading with congress to do something. They turned the only knob they have. It affected the only thing the knob is able to effect. Why are people acting surprised? They’ve been clear it’s not a great solution and that Congress needs to do something. That their knob is not the best solution but they’ll do what the best they can.
      - chordalkeyboard 6y ago
        The alternate perspective is that injecting trillions of dollars into the market has benefitted the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us.
technics256 6y ago
Which area are you in?
paxys 6y ago
The rich getting richer and economic inequality getting worse are standard outcomes of a recession.
- barbacoa 6y ago
  >standard outcomes of a recession That is a recent trend due to our governments selective action. Back in the 1929 crash it was the rich wall street types who lost everything and were jumping from tall buildings to their deaths.
  - umeshunni 6y ago
    Huh? You may want to educate yourself on the impacts of the Great Depression that followed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United...
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    Not really. The 1929 crash coincided with the great Dust Bowl, where many family farms were destroyed by a dust storm. All those farmers left their broken farms, and went to the city looking for work... Only to find that the great depression wreaked the cities too. Back then, a much larger portion of America was farmers.
    - barbacoa 6y ago
      You're inferring something I didn't say. We are seeing a dramatic rise in the suicide rate in the USA in the last few decades as the middle and working classes lose the economic advancements that their parents generation worked to attain. All the while the economic have gain more. Not saying the non-rich were spared from the great depression.
- kmonsen 6y ago
  It is by design though as the government drops a lot of money to prop up the stock market instead of sending it to normal people to spend with stimulus checks.
Natsu 6y ago
Not here. All our local favorite restaurants are still going and doing reasonably well. The state didn't do that well with Covid, mind you, but the local economy isn't dead, either.
- redisman 6y ago
  I can see in Seattle the restaurants that went full covid seem to be doing well. ie. they converted their front door to a sales point and just gave up on trying to make indoor dining work.
  - nickff 6y ago
    Take-out is not compatible with the cost structures of many restaurants, it may slow the losses, but it won't save the business. Just look at the rent and property taxes that businesses in desirable (such as waterfront) locations pay; those costs are not affordable without liquor sales.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      Restaurants in our area (upstate NY) are doing good business selling to-go cocktails.
      - nickff 6y ago
        Yes, I've read about (and seen) restaurants in many areas now serving alcohol to-go, but their volumes are much lower, as they don't have a 'pseudo-monopoly on drinks with dinner'. You have to remember that a single empty table (on a Friday/Saturday night) could be enough to make a restaurant lose money before the pandemic. The pandemic's effects are much larger than a single empty table.
- blhack 6y ago
  Where are you? Here in Phoenix, AZ, things are basically normal. People have masks on when they're indoors, but businesses (including restaurants and bars) are all open. A rough metric I've been using since march is how far backed up the cars are from the stoplight in front of our house at rush hour, and it's pretty much back to where it was in February.
DaedPsyker 6y ago
I would agree from a non-American but still western view. Where I grew up is looking more like the awful economy of the 70s and 80s in which it was in middle of an armed conflict. Unemployment and suicide is already high here. Many feel a lack of future. We had been doing better but there was some backsliding these past few years. This has just sealed its fate for a decade or more. I'm lucky in my position but many haven't been.
snarf21 6y ago
Well a lot of that business went online to the consolidated mega players. Additionally, equities are high because the Fed is buying anything and everything to trick people into believing everything is fine. We'll see what happens when they unwind their $7T position.
hpoe 6y ago
I'd argue the equities are trading so high is preciesly because of the action the government is taking. By lowering interest rates and offering low interest loans in an attempt to prevent deflation the fed has pushed a ton of money into the economy with the result that deflation is increasing. Because of that people have to put their money in something that will increase in value as inflation increases, the result being that tons of money is being pumped into equities which further drives up the price making them more attractive, because the government is pumping more money into the economy to prevent deflation. This pandemic to me shows the fundemental problem with a lot of the fancy economic theories we've been living off of and the parasitic "financial engineers" fundamental failing. You can play all the games you want with numbers and spreadsheets to make it look like there is more money than there actually is, but you can't magically change the amount of stuff their is to buy. As such it doesn't matter what measure you use or what KPI you look at for the economy, if there isn't enough crap being produced for people to buy it at a reasonable price there isn't enough crap to buy, and telling people the economy is doing great when I can't afford a roast for dinner doesn't mean jack to me or anyone else.
- TAForObvReasons 6y ago
  The Fed pushed a ton of money in a very inefficient manner. If congress approved another round of direct stimulus and bolstered the unemployment programs, people who are now struggling would have funds to make ends meet and could stimulate the economy. Instead, by purchasing large amounts of junk bonds, the Fed basically backstopped Wall Street, leading to the all-time highs in the stock market indices. The stock market completely decoupled from the economic reality on main street
  - kmonsen 6y ago
    I just posted the same as you. Just a minor comment, I do not believe this is inefficient, but their target is not the economy but the rich. There is no way an economist does not know what you said.
    - TAForObvReasons 6y ago
eulers_secret 6y ago
I'm with you. I live in a very inexpensive apartment, where most people are low-income or on gov't subsidy, or both. I also walk my dog daily and interact with 3-5 different neighbors each day - so I have a view into their lives. It's bad here. I'd say at least 1/3 have lost their jobs and are having a really hard time finding work. More uber/lyft signs have popped up in cars in the parking lot. One of my neighbors had to move their family of 3 from an already-small 2br to a 1br (2 kids). I don't know how they can make it work. There's more people who sit on the sidewalk curb and drink cheap beer and chain smoke. They're nice folks (I talk to them), but they can't find work. On the flips side, anyone who can WFH is doing better than ever before. They save money by not driving, eating out, or doing the other things they'd normally do. I've also seen A LOT of brand new cars show up, presumably buying because of low interest rates. WFH folks seem happier than before. The disparity between the haves and have-nots looks like it's been rapidly accelerating. If you always stay in the HN bubble, you won't see these people. They're 'invisible', but I assure you they are real. They need help, and they're not getting it. It's honestly very, very sad - it makes me sad. My empathy is on overdrive because it's so easy to see myself in that position. If I hadn't chosen tech, I'd be right there with them with a 6-pack, Marlboros, and no hope.

by caeril 6y ago

x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago

The government a while back injected TRILLIONS into the stock market in a bid to keep the stock market afloat. Acts like that have gone far to increase the difference in fortunes between main street and wall street.

mint2 6y ago
I think generalizing to the “government” as a whole is wrong. There’s a clearly define part of the government that is unwilling to do anything. Every effort has died in the senate.
- chordalkeyboard 6y ago
  Thats not the part of government that injected $trillions into the stock market, is it?
  - mint2 6y ago
    The part that did that has been pleading with congress to do something. They turned the only knob they have. It affected the only thing the knob is able to effect. Why are people acting surprised? They’ve been clear it’s not a great solution and that Congress needs to do something. That their knob is not the best solution but they’ll do what the best they can.
    - chordalkeyboard 6y ago
      The alternate perspective is that injecting trillions of dollars into the market has benefitted the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us.

technics256 6y ago

Which area are you in?

paxys 6y ago

The rich getting richer and economic inequality getting worse are standard outcomes of a recession.

barbacoa 6y ago
>standard outcomes of a recession That is a recent trend due to our governments selective action. Back in the 1929 crash it was the rich wall street types who lost everything and were jumping from tall buildings to their deaths.
- umeshunni 6y ago
  Huh? You may want to educate yourself on the impacts of the Great Depression that followed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United...
- dragontamer 6y ago
  Not really. The 1929 crash coincided with the great Dust Bowl, where many family farms were destroyed by a dust storm. All those farmers left their broken farms, and went to the city looking for work... Only to find that the great depression wreaked the cities too. Back then, a much larger portion of America was farmers.
  - barbacoa 6y ago
    You're inferring something I didn't say. We are seeing a dramatic rise in the suicide rate in the USA in the last few decades as the middle and working classes lose the economic advancements that their parents generation worked to attain. All the while the economic have gain more. Not saying the non-rich were spared from the great depression.
kmonsen 6y ago
It is by design though as the government drops a lot of money to prop up the stock market instead of sending it to normal people to spend with stimulus checks.

Natsu 6y ago

Not here. All our local favorite restaurants are still going and doing reasonably well. The state didn't do that well with Covid, mind you, but the local economy isn't dead, either.

redisman 6y ago
I can see in Seattle the restaurants that went full covid seem to be doing well. ie. they converted their front door to a sales point and just gave up on trying to make indoor dining work.
- nickff 6y ago
  Take-out is not compatible with the cost structures of many restaurants, it may slow the losses, but it won't save the business. Just look at the rent and property taxes that businesses in desirable (such as waterfront) locations pay; those costs are not affordable without liquor sales.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Restaurants in our area (upstate NY) are doing good business selling to-go cocktails.
    - nickff 6y ago
      Yes, I've read about (and seen) restaurants in many areas now serving alcohol to-go, but their volumes are much lower, as they don't have a 'pseudo-monopoly on drinks with dinner'. You have to remember that a single empty table (on a Friday/Saturday night) could be enough to make a restaurant lose money before the pandemic. The pandemic's effects are much larger than a single empty table.
blhack 6y ago
Where are you? Here in Phoenix, AZ, things are basically normal. People have masks on when they're indoors, but businesses (including restaurants and bars) are all open. A rough metric I've been using since march is how far backed up the cars are from the stoplight in front of our house at rush hour, and it's pretty much back to where it was in February.

DaedPsyker 6y ago

I would agree from a non-American but still western view. Where I grew up is looking more like the awful economy of the 70s and 80s in which it was in middle of an armed conflict. Unemployment and suicide is already high here. Many feel a lack of future. We had been doing better but there was some backsliding these past few years. This has just sealed its fate for a decade or more. I'm lucky in my position but many haven't been.

snarf21 6y ago

Well a lot of that business went online to the consolidated mega players. Additionally, equities are high because the Fed is buying anything and everything to trick people into believing everything is fine. We'll see what happens when they unwind their $7T position.

hpoe 6y ago

I'd argue the equities are trading so high is preciesly because of the action the government is taking. By lowering interest rates and offering low interest loans in an attempt to prevent deflation the fed has pushed a ton of money into the economy with the result that deflation is increasing. Because of that people have to put their money in something that will increase in value as inflation increases, the result being that tons of money is being pumped into equities which further drives up the price making them more attractive, because the government is pumping more money into the economy to prevent deflation. This pandemic to me shows the fundemental problem with a lot of the fancy economic theories we've been living off of and the parasitic "financial engineers" fundamental failing. You can play all the games you want with numbers and spreadsheets to make it look like there is more money than there actually is, but you can't magically change the amount of stuff their is to buy. As such it doesn't matter what measure you use or what KPI you look at for the economy, if there isn't enough crap being produced for people to buy it at a reasonable price there isn't enough crap to buy, and telling people the economy is doing great when I can't afford a roast for dinner doesn't mean jack to me or anyone else.

TAForObvReasons 6y ago
The Fed pushed a ton of money in a very inefficient manner. If congress approved another round of direct stimulus and bolstered the unemployment programs, people who are now struggling would have funds to make ends meet and could stimulate the economy. Instead, by purchasing large amounts of junk bonds, the Fed basically backstopped Wall Street, leading to the all-time highs in the stock market indices. The stock market completely decoupled from the economic reality on main street
- kmonsen 6y ago
  I just posted the same as you. Just a minor comment, I do not believe this is inefficient, but their target is not the economy but the rich. There is no way an economist does not know what you said.
  - TAForObvReasons 6y ago

eulers_secret 6y ago

I'm with you. I live in a very inexpensive apartment, where most people are low-income or on gov't subsidy, or both. I also walk my dog daily and interact with 3-5 different neighbors each day - so I have a view into their lives. It's bad here. I'd say at least 1/3 have lost their jobs and are having a really hard time finding work. More uber/lyft signs have popped up in cars in the parking lot. One of my neighbors had to move their family of 3 from an already-small 2br to a 1br (2 kids). I don't know how they can make it work. There's more people who sit on the sidewalk curb and drink cheap beer and chain smoke. They're nice folks (I talk to them), but they can't find work. On the flips side, anyone who can WFH is doing better than ever before. They save money by not driving, eating out, or doing the other things they'd normally do. I've also seen A LOT of brand new cars show up, presumably buying because of low interest rates. WFH folks seem happier than before. The disparity between the haves and have-nots looks like it's been rapidly accelerating. If you always stay in the HN bubble, you won't see these people. They're 'invisible', but I assure you they are real. They need help, and they're not getting it. It's honestly very, very sad - it makes me sad. My empathy is on overdrive because it's so easy to see myself in that position. If I hadn't chosen tech, I'd be right there with them with a 6-pack, Marlboros, and no hope.