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An interactive model of election forecast to play with martingale property
- ngrislain 6y agoRecently, as I was following the 🇺🇸 US elections 🇺🇸, I got puzzled by the fact that days after the elections happened some betting odds of Biden winning the elections were still below 90%, while FiveThirtyEight published a probability of 90% before the election actually happened, when way less information was known. I decided to spend my Sunday of COVID lockdown illustrating some facts about forecasting, like the martingale property.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]