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Taking a swing at Mike Tyson in the parking lot before the match is pretty dumb, but if your alternative is facing him in the ring it's probably your best optio

by avar 6y ago

Taking a swing at Mike Tyson in the parking lot before the match is pretty dumb, but if your alternative is facing him in the ring it's probably your best option. That was the context of Japan attacking the US at Perl Harbour[1]. The US had already effectively declared war on the US at that point from the point of view of Japan. They'd demanded an unconditional withdrawal from China. There's some alternate history where Russia never sold Alaska and Japan military bases there. What do you think if the US had done in 1941 if Japan demanded it withdraw from the "occupied" territory West of the Mississippi and return it to native control, while amassing a fleet in Russian/Japanese Alaska? Furthermore, maybe Japan just wanted the US withdrawn from New Mexico & Nevada[2] (post 1937 occupied territories), but left the demand delibirately ambiguous so as to suggest everything west of the Mississippi (Manchuria)[2] (search for "was later deleted"). I'm not suggesting those are morally equivalent, but merely that Japan at the time pretty much saw it that way. Manchuria was around half of the empire's territory. So suggesting that Perl Harbor wasn't reasonable is a pretty big stretch. Unless one of your options is to effectively become a vassal state of the US (unconditionally abandon >50% of your territory) war was inevitable. At that point they could either take the initiative at Perl Harbor, or wait until the US attacked them at its leisure. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor#Diplomatic_background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor#Diploma... 2. http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL02_1/56_S4.pdf http://www.sdh-fact.com/CL02_1/56_S4.pdf

dotancohen 6y ago
Thank you for this assessment. If you're as versed in other historical wars as the Pacific front, I would love to hear your assessments of Operation Barbarossa, Israel's six-day war, and the Russian intervention in Krim. All conflicts are difficult to find non-biased assessments of, but those three each have nuances that that are rippling through the years and I would love to further understand them.
- enriquto 6y ago
  LOL, not that there's any shortage of history books about each of the well known, studied-to-death, events that you are asking about. Just go to any library. Notice, though, that there may be several very different views of the same event, all of them equally unbiased.
greedo 6y ago
There are too many inaccuracies to address in this, but I do want to touch on your idea of Japan becoming a "vassal state of the US." This is out of touch with what Japan had been doing in China and Manchuria. Japan had invaded Manchuria (which had never been Japanese territory)in 1931. Japan had secured some rights from Imperial Russia to operate the South Manchuria Railway Zone. They leveraged this to expand their foothold in China and Manchuria; the Chinese government was too weak to really contest this and eventually the Japanese directly attacked China. There's no way to paint the conflict in the region as justified. The Japanese were clearly seeking to expand their empire, after having tasted victory defeating Imperial Russia. Just because countries stood in their way doesn't justify their actions, and simplifying it down to fighting Mike Tyson isn't very critical thinking.
- avar 6y ago
  How is whether or not a state is prepared to take implied threats of war unless large and unconditional concessions are made out of touch with Japan's record in China and Manchuria? I'm not suggesting anything about Japan's moral right to engage in those campaigns. I'm replying to fatbird's upthread comment to the effect that a general in the Empire of Japan could realistically decide on either of "how about we let them attack first?" or "how about we just do what they're suggesting for nothing in return, and stop being such dicks to everyone?". Which is essentially what the suggestion that the attack on Perl Harbor wasn't "rational" from the Japanese perspective amounts to. The whole problem of how they ended up in the situation that culminated with their defeat in WWII is pretty much that no one person could steer them off the course of inevitable destruction. So a general deciding to attack Perl Harbor is making the best and most rational decision he can make and has power to make, within a framework of decision making that amounts to steering the country into the iceberg. I do take back that they would have become a "vassal state of the US". Vassal states get something tangible in return, the US wasn't offering anything except implied war and destruction in return for unconditional demands. I think "puppet state" or "satellite state" is a more apt description in that context.
  - greedo 6y ago
    Again, you're writing nonsense, both from a historical and logical point of view. The Japanese military establishment in the 1930's was hellbent on expanding their influence. They had defeated Imperial Russia, and felt like it was their time in the sun. They had complete dominance over the government, and chose, yes chose to undertake a path of aggression towards their neighbors. First they started with Manchuria, and installed a puppet government. Then they moved on China. Unsurprisingly, this provoked concern amongst other countries that had interests in the region. The Dutch (Indonesia), the British (Singapore and Malaysia), and the US (Philippines) realized the threat posed by the expanding Japanese empire. At the time the US was still in the midst of the Great Depression and was in no state to challenge Japan militarily, so they used an oil embargo to try and persuade the Japanese to adhere to international agreements. It wasn't until 1941 that the US cut off oil to Japan. At this point, Japan had already invaded and controlled Manchuria, invaded and controlled a majority of China. When Japan seized control of Indochina, the US and allies attempted to influence Japan to leave Indochina by seizing US held assets, and embargoing oil. Japan had anticipated this and began a regional war attacking both the US, Dutch and UK territories. You seem to imply that these things just "happen" and that no one is in control or making decisions. While history often seems to have an impetus of its own, it's the result of choices leaders and people make. Tojo and his warmongers sought out conflict in the region, dismissed counsel from wiser heads, and set Japan on a course to ruin. Hirohito made a choice to continue to allow the militarist factions in the Japanese government to hold sway. But to point to the day the go ahead was given to Isoroku Yamamoto as the crux of the issue is to miss the point; he holds responsibility, as did the other military leaders and the Emperor. They knew the risks when they invaded Indochina; they knew the latent power of the US, but they underestimated their foes, and overestimated their own ability to wage war. Attacking Pearl Harbor was irrational, both in hindsight, but also in terms of what the Japanese knew at the time. It was less than a year before the IJN began to experience catastrophic losses, and after Guadalcanal, there IJN was on its back foot for the rest of the war. What could Japan have done differently? They could have restrained themselves from invading Indochina and prompting the expect oil embargo. If that wasn't feasible, they could have relinquished control of Indochina, though that would have caused a tremendous loss of face. They could have attacked and invaded the Dutch East Indies to gain oil, and odds are the US wouldn't have gotten involved. Great Britain was pretty busy with fighting Germany at the time and wouldn't have been able to help the Dutch much. If they did, the Japanese would easily defeat them in Singapore, as they did on Dec 8th. The isolationist sentiment in the US at the time wouldn't have allowed the US to intervene. We weren't intervening in the European war, despite Lend-Lease, and sure wouldn't have intervened in Asia unless directly attacked.

by avar 6y ago

dotancohen 6y ago

Thank you for this assessment. If you're as versed in other historical wars as the Pacific front, I would love to hear your assessments of Operation Barbarossa, Israel's six-day war, and the Russian intervention in Krim. All conflicts are difficult to find non-biased assessments of, but those three each have nuances that that are rippling through the years and I would love to further understand them.

enriquto 6y ago
LOL, not that there's any shortage of history books about each of the well known, studied-to-death, events that you are asking about. Just go to any library. Notice, though, that there may be several very different views of the same event, all of them equally unbiased.

greedo 6y ago

There are too many inaccuracies to address in this, but I do want to touch on your idea of Japan becoming a "vassal state of the US." This is out of touch with what Japan had been doing in China and Manchuria. Japan had invaded Manchuria (which had never been Japanese territory)in 1931. Japan had secured some rights from Imperial Russia to operate the South Manchuria Railway Zone. They leveraged this to expand their foothold in China and Manchuria; the Chinese government was too weak to really contest this and eventually the Japanese directly attacked China. There's no way to paint the conflict in the region as justified. The Japanese were clearly seeking to expand their empire, after having tasted victory defeating Imperial Russia. Just because countries stood in their way doesn't justify their actions, and simplifying it down to fighting Mike Tyson isn't very critical thinking.

avar 6y ago
How is whether or not a state is prepared to take implied threats of war unless large and unconditional concessions are made out of touch with Japan's record in China and Manchuria? I'm not suggesting anything about Japan's moral right to engage in those campaigns. I'm replying to fatbird's upthread comment to the effect that a general in the Empire of Japan could realistically decide on either of "how about we let them attack first?" or "how about we just do what they're suggesting for nothing in return, and stop being such dicks to everyone?". Which is essentially what the suggestion that the attack on Perl Harbor wasn't "rational" from the Japanese perspective amounts to. The whole problem of how they ended up in the situation that culminated with their defeat in WWII is pretty much that no one person could steer them off the course of inevitable destruction. So a general deciding to attack Perl Harbor is making the best and most rational decision he can make and has power to make, within a framework of decision making that amounts to steering the country into the iceberg. I do take back that they would have become a "vassal state of the US". Vassal states get something tangible in return, the US wasn't offering anything except implied war and destruction in return for unconditional demands. I think "puppet state" or "satellite state" is a more apt description in that context.
- greedo 6y ago
  Again, you're writing nonsense, both from a historical and logical point of view. The Japanese military establishment in the 1930's was hellbent on expanding their influence. They had defeated Imperial Russia, and felt like it was their time in the sun. They had complete dominance over the government, and chose, yes chose to undertake a path of aggression towards their neighbors. First they started with Manchuria, and installed a puppet government. Then they moved on China. Unsurprisingly, this provoked concern amongst other countries that had interests in the region. The Dutch (Indonesia), the British (Singapore and Malaysia), and the US (Philippines) realized the threat posed by the expanding Japanese empire. At the time the US was still in the midst of the Great Depression and was in no state to challenge Japan militarily, so they used an oil embargo to try and persuade the Japanese to adhere to international agreements. It wasn't until 1941 that the US cut off oil to Japan. At this point, Japan had already invaded and controlled Manchuria, invaded and controlled a majority of China. When Japan seized control of Indochina, the US and allies attempted to influence Japan to leave Indochina by seizing US held assets, and embargoing oil. Japan had anticipated this and began a regional war attacking both the US, Dutch and UK territories. You seem to imply that these things just "happen" and that no one is in control or making decisions. While history often seems to have an impetus of its own, it's the result of choices leaders and people make. Tojo and his warmongers sought out conflict in the region, dismissed counsel from wiser heads, and set Japan on a course to ruin. Hirohito made a choice to continue to allow the militarist factions in the Japanese government to hold sway. But to point to the day the go ahead was given to Isoroku Yamamoto as the crux of the issue is to miss the point; he holds responsibility, as did the other military leaders and the Emperor. They knew the risks when they invaded Indochina; they knew the latent power of the US, but they underestimated their foes, and overestimated their own ability to wage war. Attacking Pearl Harbor was irrational, both in hindsight, but also in terms of what the Japanese knew at the time. It was less than a year before the IJN began to experience catastrophic losses, and after Guadalcanal, there IJN was on its back foot for the rest of the war. What could Japan have done differently? They could have restrained themselves from invading Indochina and prompting the expect oil embargo. If that wasn't feasible, they could have relinquished control of Indochina, though that would have caused a tremendous loss of face. They could have attacked and invaded the Dutch East Indies to gain oil, and odds are the US wouldn't have gotten involved. Great Britain was pretty busy with fighting Germany at the time and wouldn't have been able to help the Dutch much. If they did, the Japanese would easily defeat them in Singapore, as they did on Dec 8th. The isolationist sentiment in the US at the time wouldn't have allowed the US to intervene. We weren't intervening in the European war, despite Lend-Lease, and sure wouldn't have intervened in Asia unless directly attacked.